Each pick names dated tests of its thesis: an earnings report, a ruling, a deal closing. This page is the full record of every test with a result, across all picks, including companies that are no longer picks. It is information, not advice (see the disclaimer).
Pass rate counts thesis checkpoints that came true. It is not an investment return. Past results do not predict future results.
| Theme | Scored | Passed | Pass rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI spender | 8 | 5 | fewer than 10 scored (n = 8) |
| AI supplier | 60 | 56 | 93% (n = 60) |
| AI disruption risk | 46 | 30 | 65% (n = 46) |
| Weak consumer | 120 | 84 | 70% (n = 120) |
| China and geopolitics | 40 | 29 | 73% (n = 40) |
| Interest rates | 161 | 125 | 78% (n = 161) |
| High debt | 143 | 99 | 69% (n = 143) |
| Regulation and courts | 162 | 127 | 78% (n = 162) |
| New management | 83 | 57 | 69% (n = 83) |
| Tariffs and trade | 113 | 86 | 76% (n = 113) |
| Weight-loss drugs | 14 | 11 | 79% (n = 14) |
| Power and energy | 79 | 66 | 84% (n = 79) |
A checkpoint counts under every theme of its company, so the themes add up to more than the total.
| Gap type | Scored | Passed | Pass rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can close | 327 | 254 | 78% (n = 327) |
| Slow | 122 | 91 | 75% (n = 122) |
| Will probably not close | 13 | 9 | 69% (n = 13) |
| Category | Scored | Passed | Pass rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep below intrinsic value | 9 | 4 | fewer than 10 scored (n = 9) |
| Far below intrinsic value | 22 | 13 | 59% (n = 22) |
| Well below intrinsic value | 62 | 36 | 58% (n = 62) |
| Below intrinsic value | 101 | 65 | 64% (n = 101) |
| Close to intrinsic value | 172 | 144 | 84% (n = 172) |
| Pricey | 21 | 19 | 90% (n = 21) |
| Far above intrinsic value | 72 | 71 | 99% (n = 72) |
| No category | 3 | 2 | fewer than 10 scored (n = 3) |
The category is the word the company has today, not the word it had when the checkpoint was scored.
| Quarter | Scored | Passed | Pass rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2027 | 1 | 1 | fewer than 10 scored (n = 1) |
| Q4 2026 | 435 | 330 | 76% (n = 435) |
| Q3 2026 | 26 | 23 | 88% (n = 26) |
Test: Constant currency revenue growth above 1.3%, an adjusted EBIT margin near 16% and a book-to-bill ratio above 100% pass; falling revenue or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Constant currency revenue growth rose to 2.5%, the adjusted EBIT margin was 16.4% and the book-to-bill ratio was 109.2%.
Test: FDA approval for HRR gene-altered metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer passes; a rejection or a delay fails.
Outcome: In October 2026, the FDA approved Talzenna with Xtandi for men with HRR gene-mutated metastatic prostate cancer that is naive or sensitive to hormone therapy.
Test: An extension of the suspension or no new loss of China sales passes; a return of the rule that cuts sales to more Chinese customers fails.
Outcome: On November 9, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security extended the suspension of the rule, but only to January 10, 2027.
Test: An extension of the suspension or no new loss of China sales passes; a return of the rule that cuts sales to more Chinese customers fails.
Outcome: On November 9, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security extended the suspension of the rule, but only to January 10, 2027.
Test: An extension of the suspension or no new loss of China sales passes; a return of the rule that cuts sales to more Chinese customers fails.
Outcome: On November 9, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security extended the suspension of the rule, but only to January 10, 2027.
Test: First half profit above half of the ¥1,400.0 billion target, a kept or raised target and a new buyback pass; a lower target or a large rise in credit costs fail.
Outcome: First half profit rose 29.9% to ¥896.5 billion, and Mizuho raised its fiscal 2026 target to ¥1,600.0 billion, raised its dividend estimate to ¥200 and announced a new buyback of up to ¥200.0 billion.
Test: Profit of about half of the ¥1,700 billion full-year forecast or more and a kept or higher forecast pass; a lower forecast or a jump in credit costs fails.
Outcome: First half profit was ¥1,003,155 million, and SMFG raised its full-year forecast to ¥1,900 billion, although total credit cost rose to ¥133,527 million from ¥90,168 million.
Test: First half profit at or above half of the ¥2,700.0 billion target, or a higher target, and a new buyback pass; a lower target or a sharp rise in credit costs fail.
Outcome: First half profit was ¥1,630,897 million, more than half of the target, and MUFG raised the target to ¥2,800.0 billion and approved a buyback of up to ¥200 billion.
Test: Annualized run-rate revenue above $3.0 billion and a reaffirmed 2026 guidance passes; a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Annualized run-rate revenue rose to $6.4 billion, but Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its range and the $7 billion run rate in February 2027, not December 2026.
Test: Fiscal 2026 EPS pre PPA within or above €11.20 to €11.50, a book-to-bill ratio above 1 and a fiscal 2027 outlook for higher earnings pass; a lower outlook or falling Digital Industries margins fail.
Outcome: Fiscal 2026 EPS pre PPA was €11.76, above the range, the book-to-bill ratio was 1.30, and Siemens set fiscal 2027 EPS pre PPA of €10.20 to €10.80 without Siemens Healthineers and raised its mid-term targets.
Test: Revenue of $18.0 billion to $18.2 billion or more, a non-GAAP gross margin of at least 65% and a confirmed fiscal 2027 guidance pass; a gross margin below 65% or lower guidance fail.
Outcome: Revenue was a record $18.5 billion, the non-GAAP gross margin was 65.6%, and Cisco raised its fiscal 2027 guidance.
Test: Net income above the $1.1 billion of Q2 2026 and a stable 15 to 90 day delinquency ratio pass; a fall in net income or a sharp rise in delinquency fail.
Outcome: Net income rose to a record $1,091.6 million from $1,061.1 million in Q2 2026, and the 15 to 90 day delinquency ratio was 4.9%, close to the 4.8% of Q2.
Test: Revenue near the $10.25 billion guidance and a view of strong growth in fiscal 2027 pass; revenue below the range or a weaker 2027 view fail.
Outcome: Revenue was a record $10.41 billion, and the company guided Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $11.10 billion and said that it is in a great position for multi-year revenue and profit growth.
Test: Revenue growth near 7% with adjusted EBITDA on track for the $745 million to $760 million guidance passes; a guidance cut or higher standalone costs fail.
Outcome: Revenue rose 7.4% and the company raised the low end of its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $750 million, although selling and general expenses rose 50%.
Test: Distributable earnings per share up about 12% or more with rising realized carry passes; flat earnings per share or falling carry fails.
Outcome: Distributable earnings before realizations rose 14% per share to $0.64, and realized carried interest rose to $222 million from $154 million a year earlier.
Test: GEOs on track for the upper half of 2026 guidance and first Cobre Panamá deliveries pass; a cut in guidance fails.
Outcome: Cobre Panamá delivered its first 3,716 GEOs from stockpiles, but Franco-Nevada narrowed its 2026 guidance to 525,000 to 555,000 GEOs, towards the midpoint, and no longer expects the upper half.
Test: 2026 guidance confirmed or raised passes; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: RWE confirmed its 2026 guidance and expects results towards the upper ends of the ranges.
Test: Longer-term targets for higher margins and strong cash returns pass; targets that show lower margins fail.
Outcome: Magna set 2030 targets of at least 200 basis points of Adjusted EBIT margin gain, adjusted EPS growth of at least 15% a year and free cash flow of at least 85% of adjusted net income.
Test: Stable Crop Protection prices, a stand-alone outlook with growing EBITDA and a clear plan for dividends and buybacks pass; lower prices from generics or a weak stand-alone outlook fail.
Outcome: Prices fell 7%, adjusted pro forma operating EBITDA fell 17%, and Corteva said that its 2026 guidance reflects a much weaker Brazil than it expected.
Test: Clearance, or clearance with small remedies, passes; a move to an in-depth second-phase review fails.
Outcome: On November 11, 2026, the UK Competition and Markets Authority found that the deal may reduce competition and said it will refer the deal to a phase 2 investigation unless the parties offer an acceptable undertaking.
Test: Shopee adjusted EBITDA above last year's and loans more than 90 days past due at 1.5% of loans or less passes; a fall in Shopee profit or a jump in late loans fails.
Outcome: Shopee adjusted EBITDA was $269.2 million, up 44.7%, and loans more than 90 days past due were 1.3% of loans.
Test: Results on track for the ¥650.0 billion operating profit forecast, or a higher forecast, pass; a cut fails.
Outcome: First-half operating profit was ¥648.7 billion, and Honda raised its full-year operating profit forecast to ¥780.0 billion.
Test: An outlook for revenue growth of 10% or more in fiscal 2027 passes; an outlook for flat or lower revenue fails.
Outcome: Infineon expects revenue of about €20 billion in fiscal 2027, more than 20% growth.
Test: Free cash flow near the Q2 2026 level and a dividend of 45% of free cash flow pass; a lower payout or large subsidy-related costs fail.
Outcome: The board approved R$15.3 billion of remuneration in line with the policy to pay 45% of free cash flow, operating cash flow rose 15% to $12.0 billion, and net debt fell 4.2%.
Test: Net income that grows faster than revenue as copper depreciation ends, with steady postpaid and fiber growth, passes; slower revenue growth or flat net income fails.
Outcome: Net income rose 30.1% while revenue rose 7.2%, and postpaid accesses grew 7.1% and fiber homes connected 10.8%.
Test: Wireless service revenue that stops falling after the end of the appreciation program and a higher operating margin than in Q3 2025 pass; another fall in wireless revenue or new security costs fail.
Outcome: Wireless service revenue fell 3.9% from a year earlier and 0.5% from Q2 2026, and the consolidated operating margin fell to 7.2% from 7.6%.
Test: Fiscal 2026 results within the raised outlook and a fiscal 2027 outlook with double-digit commercial aftermarket growth pass; a lower outlook or a margin below 52% fails.
Outcome: Fiscal 2026 sales and EBITDA As Defined were above the raised outlook and the fiscal 2027 margin guide is about 52.0%, but the fiscal 2027 outlook expects only high single-digit commercial aftermarket growth.
Test: The $300.0 million investment closes in Q4 2026 and the joint solutions start, and this passes; a block by a regulator fails.
Outcome: The investment closed on November 9, 2026, and Teradyne now holds 2,234,887 FormFactor shares, about 2.8% of the company.
Test: Non-residential sales growth above 10% with an adjusted operating margin near last year's 10.7% passes; a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Non-residential sales rose 15%, and the adjusted operating margin was 10.7%, level with last year.
Test: Principal debt near $10 billion and free cash flow of $2 billion or more in the quarter pass; higher debt fails.
Outcome: Principal debt fell to $10.0 billion, and free cash flow before working capital was $2.8 billion.
Test: Gold production above 800 thousand ounces and all-in sustaining costs within the 2026 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Gold production was 816 thousand ounces, all-in sustaining costs were $1,911 per ounce, and Barrick kept its guidance.
Test: Service revenue growth of 5% or more and a higher EBITDA margin pass; slower growth or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Service revenue rose 5.3%, and the normalized EBITDA margin rose to 52.4% from 51.7% a year earlier.
Test: GTV growth near 10% with a stable take rate and the 2026 outlook kept at the high end pass; a lower outlook or a further large fall in the take rate fails.
Outcome: GTV rose 20% and the company raised its 2026 outlook, while the take rate was 19.8%, close to 20.0% in Q2 2026 but down from 21.7% a year earlier.
Test: Fee related earnings growth of more than 15%, steady new capital raised and no large credit losses pass; falling fundraising or large markdowns in credit fail.
Outcome: Fee related earnings rose 27% and the credit composites gained 4% over 12 months, but new capital raised fell to $25 billion from $34 billion in Q2 2026 and $42.6 billion a year earlier.
Test: Repayment or refinancing of the $1,165 million 2021-1C Tower Securities by the anticipated repayment date at a fixed rate near the 5.25% that SBA assumed passes; a much higher rate fails.
Outcome: SBA funded the full $1,165 million repayment with a new unsecured term loan at term SOFR plus 0.750% to 1.375%, a floating rate and not a fixed one, but not a much higher rate than the 5.25% it assumed.
Test: Fast growth in TRYNGOLZA sales after the June approval and DAWNZERA on track for $110 million to $120 million pass; flat TRYNGOLZA sales or a cut to 2026 guidance fail.
Outcome: TRYNGOLZA sales were only $9 million in Q3 2026, and Ionis cut its 2026 TRYNGOLZA guidance to about $50 million from $100 million to $110 million, although DAWNZERA stayed on track.
Test: An Agriculture margin in line with the 5.0% to 5.5% full-year outlook and past-due loans at or below 4.4% pass; a cut to the 2026 outlook or higher past-due loans fail.
Outcome: The Agriculture margin was 6.0% in Q3 2026 with help from tariff refunds, CNH kept the middle of its margin outlook at 5.1% to 5.4% and raised its EPS outlook, and past-due loans fell to 4.1%.
Test: A higher 2026 midpoint and 2027 guidance that starts at $7.7 billion or more pass; a cut to 2026 fails.
Outcome: Vistra narrowed 2026 to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, a higher midpoint, and set 2027 at $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.
Test: An Insurance segment benefit ratio near 94% or lower and no cut to the 2026 guidance pass; a higher ratio fails.
Outcome: The Insurance segment benefit ratio was 93.7%, and Humana raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $9.50.
Test: Shareholders appoint Jonathan M. Pratt to the Managing Board, so the company has a stable management team while the offer is pending, pass; a failed vote or a sudden change of leadership fails.
Outcome: On November 6, 2026, shareholders approved the appointment of Jonathan M. Pratt to the Managing Board, so the CEO and the CFO form the Managing Board while the EQT offer is pending.
Test: Ongoing EPS on track for the $1.90 to $1.98 forecast passes; a cut to the forecast or the growth target fails.
Outcome: Ongoing EPS was $0.54, PPL narrowed its 2026 forecast to $1.92 to $1.96 with at least the $1.94 midpoint, and it raised its growth target to 7% to 9% a year.
Test: DCF per share on track for the C$5.70 to C$6.10 guidance and debt to EBITDA moving toward 5.0 times pass; lower guidance or higher leverage fails.
Outcome: Enbridge reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, but debt to EBITDA stayed at 5.1 times and did not move toward 5.0 times.
Test: Year-to-date EPS on track for the $5.25 to $5.45 guidance and the 6% to 8% growth plan kept pass; a cut to the guidance or the growth plan fails.
Outcome: Nine-month EPS rose to $4.83, Ameren raised its 2026 guidance to $5.35 to $5.55 and raised its growth plan to 8% to 10% a year from 2027 through 2031.
Test: Strong fundraising from outside investors and fee-related earnings growth near 15% passes; weak fundraising without Brookfield's own insurer fails. Fee-bearing capital is now shown gross for partner managers, so compare it with the restated figures.
Outcome: BAM raised $25 billion in Q3 2026, of which only $3.8 billion came from Brookfield Wealth Solutions, and fee-related earnings rose 15%.
Test: Organic growth of maintenance and recurring revenue back near 5% after currency effects (2% in Q2), as Mark Miller expects, passes; growth at or below 2% after currency effects or a lower pace of acquisitions fails.
Outcome: Organic growth of maintenance and recurring revenue rose only to 4% after currency effects, below the rate near 5% that the test asked for, although acquisition spending rose.
Test: A kept or raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA range with a trend to the upper end passes; a cut fails.
Outcome: Pembina raised the low end of the range to $4.45 billion and said that it is trending to the upper end.
Test: Double-digit growth in fan attendance and in AOI passes; slower growth fails.
Outcome: Fan attendance rose 19% and AOI rose 14%, and the company expects nearly 180 million fans in 2026.
Test: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $13.00 to $13.30 or more passes; a result below $13.00 fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $13.42, which includes $0.11 of tariff refund items.
Test: Revenue growth above 30% with a raise to 2026 revenue guidance passes; slower growth or a cut fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 34.1% to $794.0 million and 2026 revenue guidance rose by $140 million at the midpoint.
Test: Free cash flow of $600 million or more, net cash above $1 billion and reaffirmed guidance pass; a cut in guidance fails.
Outcome: Free cash flow was $722 million, net cash was $1,256 million and the 2026 guidance was reaffirmed.
Test: EBITDA per tonne of $150 or more with stable European shipments passes; a fall below $130 fails.
Outcome: EBITDA per tonne was $155, and European flat steel shipments rose from Q2 against the usual seasonal fall.
Test: BRUKINSA growth of 25% or more and a higher operating margin pass; slower growth fails.
Outcome: BRUKINSA sales rose 34%, and BeOne raised its 2026 revenue and operating income guidance.
Test: Higher adjusted EBITDA and a kept or higher 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,504 million, and Targa raised its 2026 outlook to at least $6.0 billion.
Test: Adjusted diluted EPS within the guidance of $12.62 to $12.72 and guidance for higher EPS in fiscal 2027 pass; lower EPS fails.
Outcome: Adjusted diluted EPS was $12.70, and BD guided to $13.10 to $13.30 for fiscal 2027.
Test: EBITDA of 18% of sales or more and a kept margin outlook pass; a lower margin outlook fails.
Outcome: EBITDA was a record 18.9% of sales, and the margin outlook stayed at about 18.2%, but the revenue outlook fell to growth of about 10%.
Test: Production growth and a confirmed 2026 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Production rose 13.3% to 230,965 GEOs, and Wheaton kept its 2026 guidance.
Test: Non-GAAP EPS growth and a confirmed or higher fiscal 2027 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 28% to $3.26, and the company raised its guidance to $12.80 to $13.00.
Test: Comparable EBITDA growth and a confirmed or higher 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Comparable EBITDA rose to C$3,004 million, and the company raised its 2026 outlook to C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion.
Test: Growth in EBIT excluding nuclear and confirmed 2026 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: EBIT excluding nuclear rose 9.7%, and Engie now expects net recurring income Group share in the upper end of its range.
Test: EBIT growth and an Express margin near 14% or more pass; a lower group outlook fails.
Outcome: Group EBIT rose 16.2%, the Express margin was 14.8%, and DHL raised its 2026 EBIT outlook to more than €7.0 billion.
Test: Volumes at or above guidance and continued buybacks pass; lower volumes or returns fail.
Outcome: Volumes were records and above the guidance midpoints, and EOG bought back $1.0 billion of shares and raised its dividend by 8%.
Test: Cash earnings without large notable items near fiscal 2025, a CET1 ratio above 11.25% and a kept dividend pass; a dividend cut fails.
Outcome: Cash earnings without the large notable item were flat at A$7,090 million, the CET1 ratio was 11.87% and the final dividend stayed at 85 cents, but credit impairment charges rose to A$1,547 million.
Test: Net sales growth in the mid-teens or more with a stable gross margin passes; growth below ten percent or a falling margin fails.
Outcome: Net sales rose 16.7% to a record $2.56 billion, but the gross margin fell one point and operating income rose only 6.4%.
Test: Revenue growth above 30%, a higher non-GAAP operating margin and higher 2026 guidance pass; slower growth or lower guidance fail.
Outcome: Revenue grew 39% to $782.5 million, the non-GAAP operating margin rose to 17.5% and 2026 revenue guidance rose to $2,963.0 million to $2,964.0 million.
Test: Revenue at or above the guidance of $4.69 billion to $4.77 billion and a stable adjusted EBITDA margin pass; a miss or a lower outlook fail.
Outcome: Revenue was $4.87 billion, the adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 52% and Airbnb raised its 2026 outlook.
Test: Organic growth, a higher adjusted margin and a confirmed or higher outlook pass; lower guidance or falling orders fail.
Outcome: Organic sales rose 11.5%, the adjusted segment operating margin rose to 28.6% and the company raised its fiscal 2027 guidance.
Test: Results on track for the ¥3.4 trillion operating income forecast, or a higher forecast, pass; a cut to the forecast fails.
Outcome: First-half operating income rose 9.2% to ¥2.19 trillion, and Toyota raised its full-year operating income forecast to ¥3.9 trillion from ¥3.4 trillion.
Test: A smaller fall in US brand volume and results on track for the 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance or a faster volume decline fails.
Outcome: Brand volume fell 4.9%, with 5.3% in the Americas, and Molson Coors cut its 2026 guidance to a fall of 16% to 19% in underlying EPS.
Test: A closed KKR sale and 2026 adjusted EPS on track for the $4.80 to $5.30 guidance pass; a delayed sale or a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Sempra expects 2026 adjusted EPS at the high end of its guidance, but the KKR sale had not closed by November 5, 2026, after Sempra had expected a close in Q3 2026.
Test: Domestic property NOI growth of 5% or more, occupancy near 96% and the 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance kept or raised pass; lower guidance or a fall in occupancy fails.
Outcome: Domestic property NOI rose 6.6%, occupancy rose to 96.5% and Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.30 to $13.40 per share.
Test: Same property NOI growth near 4%, occupancy near 97% and the 2026 guidance kept or raised pass; lower guidance or a fall in occupancy fails.
Outcome: Same property NOI grew 5.1%, the portfolio was 97.0% leased and Regency raised its 2026 Core Operating Earnings guidance to $4.65 to $4.67 per share.
Test: Lower net debt after the $1.1 billion of proceeds and AFFO guidance kept at $1.26 to $1.32 pass; a guidance cut or falling same store NOI fail.
Outcome: Debt fell by $1.15 billion and net leverage to about 6.2 times, same store NOI rose 6.0%, and Americold raised its AFFO guidance to $1.31 to $1.33 per share.
Test: Adjusted EPS guidance of at least $30.45 kept or raised and a smaller decline in Pharmacy Benefit Services income pass; a guidance cut or a larger decline fail.
Outcome: Cigna raised its 2026 outlook to adjusted EPS of at least $30.60, and the fall in Pharmacy Benefit Services income was 22%, smaller than the 27% of Q2 2026.
Test: Mobile ARPU growth and positive net mobile additions with leverage below 3x pass; falling ARPU fails.
Outcome: Mobile ARPU rose 2.9%, mobile connections grew by a record 136,700, and leverage fell to 2.69x.
Test: New business profit growth that keeps the double-digit 2026 guidance passes; a fall in Hong Kong sales to visitors from the Chinese Mainland fails.
Outcome: New business profit grew only 1% in Q3 2026, and Prudential said that its double-digit 2026 guidance is now more stretching.
Test: Strong political advertising and more debt repayment that lowers the total net leverage ratio below 4.22 times pass; a higher leverage ratio fails.
Outcome: Political advertising revenue was a record $317 million for a third quarter, Nexstar repaid $350 million of debt, and the total net leverage ratio fell to 4.04 times.
Test: Results that support underlying EPS growth at or above 13% to 15% for 2026/27 and net debt in line with guidance pass; lower guidance or higher net debt fails.
Outcome: Underlying EPS rose 22% in the half year, the company raised its 2026/27 guidance to growth of 15% to 16%, and net debt of £48.6 billion was in line with its plan for about £4 billion more growth by March 2027.
Test: Growth in net sales and an unchanged 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the adjusted EPS guidance fails.
Outcome: Net sales grew 4%, but Mattel cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.05 to $1.20 from $1.27 to $1.39.
Test: Final results that match the preliminary data and an unchanged 2026 outlook pass; a cut to the outlook or a larger fall in organic sales fails.
Outcome: Final Q3 2026 results matched the preliminary data, with organic sales down 1.3% and adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $1.70, and the 2026 outlook stayed the same.
Test: Revenue at or above the $1.410 billion to $1.425 billion outlook, a non-GAAP operating margin of 15.5% or more and positive operating cash flow pass; a lower outlook or more negative cash flow fails.
Outcome: Revenue was $1.426 billion, the non-GAAP operating margin was 16.7% and operating cash flow was $288.8 million.
Test: Production and capital spending on plan, progress toward the $1.0 billion synergy target and a clear plan for the Eagle Ford proceeds pass; lower production guidance or higher costs fail.
Outcome: Devon kept its 2026 production and capital guidance, raised its synergy outlook and plans to use the Eagle Ford proceeds for buybacks and debt reduction.
Test: Adjusted EPS on track for the $6.55 to $6.80 guidance, with storm costs in line with the plan, passes; lower guidance or a large unrecovered storm cost fails.
Outcome: Duke narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70 to $6.80 and reported no special items for storm costs.
Test: Operating EPS on track for the high end of the $7.59 to $7.73 guidance and progress on a new data center agreement pass; lower guidance or no progress on new data center agreements fails.
Outcome: DTE said that it is positioned for the high end of its 2026 guidance, and it has 2 gigawatts of data center demand in advanced discussions.
Test: Nuclear revenue on track for about $2.7 billion in 2026, faster organic growth in Engineering Services and steady margins pass; a cut in the outlook or a lower backlog fail.
Outcome: Nuclear revenue stayed on track and margins rose, but the company cut its 2026 organic growth outlook for Engineering Services Regions to a low single digit percentage because of the conflict in the Middle East.
Test: Core sales growth near the guided 5% with stable Repair Solutions sales passes; core sales growth below 3% or a cut to 2026 guidance fails.
Outcome: Core sales grew 5.7% and 2026 EPS guidance went up, and Repair Solutions core sales fell only 1.0%, near the 1.3% fall of Q2.
Test: Commercial aerospace growth in line with the full-year guidance, an adjusted EBITDA margin near 14% and the 2026 guidance kept or raised pass; a guidance cut or a sign that airlines delay overhauls fails.
Outcome: The adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.4%, StandardAero raised its 2026 guidance and kept its commercial aerospace growth assumption, although reported commercial aerospace revenue grew only 1.3% after the removal of pass-through revenue.
Test: Positive organic revenue growth with better eye care shipments and lower net debt pass; a new fall in eye care sales or a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Organic revenue fell 1.6% with lower Clear Eyes sales, and Prestige cut its fiscal 2027 revenue, EPS and free cash flow outlook because Clear Eyes production at Pillar5 varied.
Test: U.S./CAN operating income that improves with Argo at normal rates and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.30 to $10.90 kept pass; another guidance cut fails.
Outcome: U.S./CAN operating income fell 36% because of high Argo costs, and Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.25 to $9.70.
Test: Normalized adjusted net revenue growth of about 4% or more and the 2026 outlook kept pass; another cut to the revenue or EPS outlook fails.
Outcome: Normalized adjusted net revenue grew more than 4%, and Global Payments kept its 2026 outlook and its capital return plan.
Test: Net sales near $1.65 billion with Wholesale and Retail both growing against pro forma sales pass; sales well below guidance or another fall against pro forma fails.
Outcome: Net sales were $1.47 billion, well below guidance, and Wholesale and Retail both fell against pro forma sales.
Test: Organic adjusted EBITDA AL growth near 7%, T-Mobile US postpaid account growth on track for its 2026 guidance and confirmed group guidance pass; slower US account growth or a cut to guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA AL grew 8.0% in organic terms, T-Mobile US is on track for its postpaid account target and Deutsche Telekom raised its 2026 guidance.
Test: A kept 2026 outlook of $700 million to $900 million of adjusted EBITDA and growing Predictions volume pass; a lower outlook or a larger Predictions loss fails.
Outcome: DraftKings cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $175 million to $275 million, because it now plans $650 million to $700 million of investment in Predictions.
Test: Fee-related earnings that grow from a year earlier and inflows near the $16.8 billion of Q2 2026 pass; a fall in fee-related earnings or rising credit losses fail.
Outcome: Fee-related earnings fell 6% to $292.6 million and inflows were only $10.8 billion, although distributable earnings rose 17%.
Test: Organic constant currency growth above the 5.8% of Q2 and subscription growth near 8% pass; growth that falls back toward the 3.9% of Q1 fails.
Outcome: Organic constant currency growth rose to 7.4% and subscription growth was 8.2%, and Verisk kept its 2026 guidance.
Test: Game operating income on track for the 660 billion yen forecast and no cut to the 1.72 trillion yen group forecast pass; a lower forecast because of memory costs fails.
Outcome: Sony raised its operating income forecast to 1.87 trillion yen and its game forecast to 700 billion yen.
Test: Net sales of $1.485 billion to $1.575 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $420 million to $455 million and continued organic growth in fiber cement pass; results below guidance or a cut to the fiscal 2027 outlook fail.
Outcome: Net sales were $1.564 billion with Europe, adjusted EBITDA was above guidance, fiber cement volumes grew and the fiscal 2027 outlook was reaffirmed.
Test: A pass is organic net sales near flat with a smaller North America decline and guidance kept; a fail is a guidance cut or a larger North America decline.
Outcome: Organic net sales grew 1.4%, North America fell 3.6%, less than the high-single-digit fall of early 2026, and Diageo kept its fiscal 2027 guidance.
Test: A pass is constant-currency ARR growth of 11% or more with net retention of 109% or more; a fail is ARR growth below 10.5%, the bottom of the 2026 outlook.
Outcome: Constant-currency ARR grew 13% with net retention of 110%, and Bentley raised its 2026 ARR growth outlook to 12.5% to 13.5%.
Test: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS within $13.39 to $13.49, fiscal 2027 guidance with EPS growth and lower capital spending, and a final Yara agreement pass; new project charges or higher capital spending fail.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS of $13.45 and the fiscal 2027 guidance of $14.15 to $14.50 met the test, but Air Products recorded $224.5 million of new charges for its China plants and expects fiscal 2027 capital spending of $3.0 to $3.5 billion, near the $3.3 billion of fiscal 2026.
Test: Adjusted profit before tax up 10% or more from Q3 2025 with no large client loss passes; a fall in profit as volatility eases fails.
Outcome: Adjusted profit before tax rose 75% to a record $176.1 million, and the credit loss provision of $6.7 million came from portfolio growth, not from a client default.
Test: Stable Macau market share and EBITDAR with normal hold, and Las Vegas EBITDAR that stops falling, pass; a fall in Macau share or more Las Vegas decline fails.
Outcome: Macau EBITDAR fell at both Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau, and Las Vegas EBITDAR fell to $158.8 million from $203.4 million.
Test: Underlying EPS growth of 8% or more with underlying return on equity above 18% passes; slower growth fails.
Outcome: Underlying EPS rose 10% to $2.05 and underlying return on equity was 19.0%.
Test: Upstream production at or above the 2026 guidance range and lower net debt pass; a production shortfall fails.
Outcome: Upstream production was a record 1,023.5 thousand BOE per day, and net debt fell to $3.0 billion.
Test: Base EPS growth of 8% or more and base ROE of 19% or more pass; lower base EPS fails.
Outcome: Base EPS rose 11% to C$1.48, and base ROE was a record 19.4%.
Test: Sales growth of 10% or more and a kept or higher EPS outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Sales rose 10.5%, and Edwards raised its 2026 guidance to sales growth of about 11.5% and adjusted EPS of $2.97 to $3.05.
Test: Adjusted EPS growth of 10% or more, excluding notable items, passes; lower adjusted EPS fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS excluding total notable items rose 22% to $2.85.
Test: Adjusted diluted EPS at the high end of the guidance and EPS growth of 8% or more guided for fiscal 2027 pass; less fails.
Outcome: Adjusted diluted EPS rose 12.3% to $17.97, and Cencora guided to $19.40 to $19.75 for fiscal 2027.
Test: Revenue growth of 30% or more and higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 35% to $1,197 million, and Datadog raised its 2026 guidance, but the largest customer reduced its usage.
Test: Core EPS growth of 5% or more and higher Asia core earnings pass; lower core EPS fails.
Outcome: Core EPS rose 6% to C$1.24, and Asia core earnings rose 17%.
Test: Profit on track for the forecast of ¥920.0 billion and a kept dividend pass; a lower forecast fails.
Outcome: Profit rose 35.7% to ¥574.9 billion, and the company raised its full-year forecast to ¥1,050.0 billion.
Test: Double-digit sales growth, a higher non-GAAP margin and a kept or higher 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Sales rose 12%, the non-GAAP operating margin rose to 32.5%, backlog reached a record $16.6 billion and the company raised its 2026 outlook.
Test: Q4 adjusted EPS near $1.85, strong orders and fiscal 2027 guidance for higher adjusted EPS pass; weak orders or lower guidance fail.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose 15% to $1.86, underlying orders rose 14% and Emerson guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of about $7.25.
Test: Revenue growth above 35% on an FX-neutral basis with an operating margin at or above the 6.7% of Q2 2026 passes; a lower margin with slower growth fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 41% on an FX-neutral basis, but the operating margin fell to 6.3%, below the 6.7% of Q2 2026.
Test: PEM EBITDA that stays positive and well above the levels of 2025 passes; a return to PEM losses fails.
Outcome: PEM EBITDA without closure charges was $215 million, well above $90 million a year earlier, but PEM returned to an operating loss of $64 million, or $8 million without these charges.
Test: Same store revenue growth near the 2% outlook and integration on plan pass; a cut to the outlook or higher merger costs fail.
Outcome: Same store revenue on a merged basis grew 2.4%, the 2026 outlook rose to 2.0% to 2.4%, the synergy target rose to $135 million and the estimate of merger costs fell to about $725 million.
Test: Organic growth on track for the 6% to 7% guidance and faster AST service growth pass; a cut to the guidance or slower AST growth fails.
Outcome: Constant currency organic growth of 8% kept the 6% to 7% guidance on track, but AST service revenue grew only 5% and STERIS cut its fiscal 2027 AST growth outlook to 6% to 7% from 7% to 8%.
Test: Underlying revenue growth near 5% with better U.S. Orthopaedics and SANTYL growth, and the 2026 guidance kept, pass; growth near 2% or a cut to profit guidance fails.
Outcome: Underlying revenue growth was 3.4%, below the 5% test, U.S. knee implant revenue fell 7.3%, and the company cut its 2026 trading profit growth guidance to about 4% from about 8%.
Test: Revenue growth and operating income above the W566.0 billion of Q2 2026 pass; a fall in revenue or operating income fails.
Outcome: Operating revenue rose 3.2% from Q2 2026 to W4.50 trillion, but operating income fell 2.4% to W552.3 billion, below the W566.0 billion of Q2 2026.
Test: Final figures that confirm the preliminary net sales of $548 million and adjusted EPS of $0.65, with no event that puts the offer conditions at risk, pass; lower figures or a material adverse change fail.
Outcome: The full Q3 2026 results on November 4, 2026 confirmed net sales of $548 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.65, and QIAGEN still expects the EQT deal to close in mid-2027.
Test: A stable medical benefit ratio and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance kept or raised pass; a higher medical benefit ratio or a guidance cut fail.
Outcome: The medical benefit ratio fell to 91.3% from 92.8% a year earlier, and CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20 from $7.90 to $8.10.
Test: Strong fall fill demand and a positive outlook for supply and demand into 2027 pass; a sharp fall in realized prices or a weaker outlook fail.
Outcome: Demand was strong and CF kept a positive outlook into 2027, but its average prices for ammonia, urea and UAN fell 21% to 29% from Q2 2026.
Test: Sales and Adjusted Operating EBITDA on track for the raised 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Q3 2026 net sales rose 22% to $1.56 billion and Adjusted Operating EBITDA was $503 million, and Qnity raised its 2026 guidance again, to net sales of $5.77 billion to $5.83 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.95 to $5.05.
Test: RevPAR growth and Adjusted EBITDA on track for the $617 million to $637 million outlook pass; a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Comparable RevPAR rose 8.4% in Q3 2026 and Park raised its 2026 outlook to Adjusted EBITDA of $635 million to $645 million and Adjusted FFO of $2.00 to $2.05 per share.
Test: Revenue within the guidance of $780 million to $790 million, cloud growth of 13% or more and higher AI ARR pass; revenue below the range or slower cloud growth fails.
Outcome: Revenue of $790.7 million topped the range and AI ARR rose to $392 million, but cloud revenue grew only 10.6% (12.2% without a one-time credit), below 13%, and NiCE cut its 2026 cloud outlook to about 12%.
Test: Higher year-to-date earnings from the growing rate base pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail.
Outcome: Net income for the first nine months of 2026 rose to $138.2 million, or $3.70 per diluted share, from $112.6 million, or $3.08, with a larger rate base and investment gains.
Test: Organic sales growth near 9% to 10% and Adjusted EBITDA on track for $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion pass; another cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 10.5%, and Medline raised its 2026 organic sales guidance to 10.0% to 10.5% and kept its Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion.
Test: Revenue near $1,885 million, a non-IFRS gross margin near 30.5% and positive adjusted free cash flow pass; revenue below the guidance range or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Revenue was $1,899 million, the non-IFRS gross margin was 31.4% and adjusted free cash flow was $136 million.
Test: Net sales growth that keeps the 2026 guidance of 10% to 12% and a higher adjusted gross margin pass; a cut in guidance fails.
Outcome: Net sales rose 10.0%, the adjusted gross margin rose to 50.0% from 46.0%, and Freshpet raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to 12% to 13%.
Test: Eversource keeps its 2026 guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 per share and shows lower debt after the Aquarion sale passes; a lower guidance or a new large charge fails.
Outcome: Eversource narrowed its 2026 guidance to $4.62 to $4.70 per share with a higher midpoint, took no new charge in Q3, and its FFO to debt rose to 15.4% at September 2026 from 14.2% at December 2025.
Test: Continued growth in Leasing and Services revenue, higher adjusted EBITDA and no new Greystone impairment pass; a fall in adjusted EBITDA or a new large Greystone loss fails.
Outcome: Leasing revenue rose 15% and Services revenue rose 5%, adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $183.7 million, and the Greystone joint venture added earnings with no new impairment.
Test: Fiscal 2026 EPS within $8.40 to $8.50, fiscal 2027 guidance with growth near the plan and a five-year plan with steady rate base growth pass; lower guidance or a weaker equity share fail.
Outcome: Fiscal 2026 EPS was $8.49, fiscal 2027 guidance of $9.05 to $9.25 is about 7% to 9% higher, the new plan expects rate base of $45 billion to $47 billion by fiscal 2031, and the equity share stayed at 60%.
Test: Net sales within $990 million to $1,030 million, a Refrigerants & Applied Solutions margin near the mid-30% range and the full-year guidance kept pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Net sales of $1,046 million were above the top of the guidance range, the Refrigerants & Applied Solutions margin was 34.5% and Solstice raised its full-year guidance.
Test: US Omnipod growth within 14% to 16% and no further cut to the full-year outlook pass; growth below the range or a new outlook cut fails.
Outcome: US Omnipod revenue grew 14.7% in Q3 2026, within the range, and Insulet narrowed its 2026 US outlook to 17.5% to 18.5% with the same midpoint and raised its total revenue outlook.
Test: A smaller fall in North America volume and mix than the 3.8 points of Q2 and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.03 to $2.09 kept pass; a larger volume fall or lower guidance fails.
Outcome: North America volume and mix fell 2.4 points, less than in Q2, and Kraft Heinz raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.07 to $2.13.
Test: Growth in US sportsbook customers and handle, US iGaming growth and no further guidance cut beyond Brazil pass; another cut to US guidance fails.
Outcome: US sportsbook players rose 9%, handle 13% and iGaming revenue 8%, but Flutter cut its 2026 US guidance by $60 million of revenue and $45 million of adjusted EBITDA for sports results.
Test: Adjusted EPS inside the $1.58 to $1.62 outlook, pro forma revenue growth near 5% and the free cash flow target kept pass; another cut to the growth outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS of $1.61 was inside the outlook and FIS kept its free cash flow target, but pro forma revenue grew only 3.7% and FIS cut its 2026 growth outlook to 3.1% to 3.6%.
Test: Core organic growth inside the 2% to 4% range, a higher core adjusted EBITDA margin than in Q2 and the 2026 outlook kept pass; another outlook cut or falling volumes fail.
Outcome: Core organic growth of 2.3% and a margin of 19.8% passed, but ESAB cut its 2026 core adjusted EPS outlook to $5.28 to $5.33 and its core organic growth outlook to 1.6% to 2.0%.
Test: Positive volumes, synergies on plan and progress toward adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 for the transition period pass; falling volumes or a cut to the guidance fail.
Outcome: Volumes grew about 1% and synergies were on plan, but Amcor cut its adjusted EPS guidance for the transition period to $1.70 to $1.80 from $1.80 to $1.90.
Test: Knee sales that grow again and organic growth at or above the top of the 2026 guidance pass; flat or lower knee sales or a cut to the guidance fail.
Outcome: Knee sales fell 2.6% at constant currency, although the company raised its 2026 guidance to 3.0% to 3.5% organic constant currency growth.
Test: Clear medium-term targets for the home and personal care company, with margin growth above the 20.0% of 2025, pass; lower targets or more spending with no margin gain fail.
Outcome: Unilever confirmed 4% to 6% yearly sales growth with a modest margin rise, expected 2027 to meet it and planned €1 billion of savings by 2029.
Test: Daily, organic constant currency sales growth near 12% and an operating margin in the mid-15% range pass; a lower margin or a cut to the 2026 guidance fails.
Outcome: Sales grew 14.9% on a daily, organic constant currency basis, the operating margin was 16.0%, and Grainger raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $47.00 to $48.00.
Test: A fiscal 2027 outlook with growth in Scores revenue and comments that lenders keep pulling FICO Scores pass; an outlook with lower mortgage score revenue or a price cut fails.
Outcome: FICO gave no fiscal 2027 outlook, because it is moving mortgage lenders to prices set for each customer and the agreements are not final.
Test: Wegovy pill sales that grow faster than injectable semaglutide shrinks and guidance held or raised pass; a guidance cut or a stall in pill growth fails.
Outcome: Wegovy pill sales were DKK 5,394 million in Q3 2026, almost equal to its DKK 5,474 million in the first half, far more than the fall in Wegovy injectable and Ozempic sales, and Novo raised its 2026 outlook to -2% to +2%.
Test: US same-store sales near zero or better, positive US sales in September as the CFO expected, and guest counts that stop falling in October pass; a further fall in US traffic or a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: US same-store sales fell 0.2% and US guest counts fell again in Q3 2026, so US traffic kept falling, although McDonald's said US results improved as the quarter went on.
Test: Revenue at or above the $2.055 to $2.085 billion guidance with clear e-commerce growth and a firm date for the video ad tool passes; a second miss or flat sequential growth fails.
Outcome: Revenue of $2,185 million beat the guidance, but the report gave no e-commerce figures and no date for the video ad tool.
Test: Book value per basic share above $1,300 at September 30, 2026 passes; below fails.
Outcome: Book value per basic share was $1,349.15, up 7.1% in nine months.
Test: A General Insurance combined ratio below 92% and core operating return on equity of 11% or more passes; worse results fail.
Outcome: The combined ratio was 91.3% and core operating return on equity was 11.1%.
Test: Adjusted EPS above the guidance range and a raise to the 2026 outlook passes; a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $4.10 and Waters raised every part of its 2026 guidance.
Test: Reaffirmed 2026 guidance passes; a cut fails.
Outcome: KDP reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, and Adjusted diluted EPS rose 22.2% to $0.66.
Test: Gross profit growth near 20% and a raised 2026 profit outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Gross profit grew 22%, Adjusted Operating Income grew 92%, and Block raised its 2026 guidance to Adjusted Diluted EPS of $4.15.
Test: Organic sales growth of 5% or more and a raised EPS outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 10%, orders grew 34.7%, and AMETEK raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $8.53 to $8.57.
Test: Higher distributable cash flow and coverage of 1.8 times or more pass; lower coverage fails.
Outcome: Distributable cash flow rose 33% to $2.52 billion and covered the distribution 2.1 times.
Test: Higher adjusted funds from operations and kept buybacks pass; lower buybacks fail.
Outcome: Adjusted funds from operations reached a record C$6.7 billion, and Suncor raised buybacks to C$750 million a month and its dividend by 10%.
Test: A recurring return on equity above 22%, an NPL ratio near 2% and kept guidance pass; a lower return or weaker guidance fail.
Outcome: The recurring return on equity was 23.6%, the NPL ratio over 90 days was 2.0%, and the bank kept every guidance line except the tax rate, which it lowered.
Test: High refining margins, strong cash returns and a higher dividend pass; a fall in margins or lower buybacks fail.
Outcome: Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA was $34.15 per barrel, MPC returned $3.3 billion, raised the dividend by 10% and added a $5 billion buyback.
Test: Revenue at or above the guided $3.3 billion with a stable gross margin pass; revenue below guidance or a further fall in gross margin fail.
Outcome: Revenue was $3.66 billion, above the guided $3.3 billion, and GAAP gross margin rose to 63.6% from 62.9% in Q2 2026.
Test: Big 3 organic growth near 9.5% or more and a margin on track for a 100 basis point rise pass; slower Big 3 growth fails.
Outcome: Big 3 organic growth was 10%, but the Big 3 adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 40.3% from 41.7% and to 43.3% from 43.9% for nine months, so the planned 100 basis point rise for 2026 depends on a much stronger Q4.
Test: Adjusted EPS on track for the $2.80 to $3.00 guidance with continued growth of launched and acquired products passes; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Launched and acquired products grew 32%, and Pfizer raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.95 to $3.05.
Test: Production within the Q3 guidance of 615 to 640 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and higher buybacks pass; lower production or lower shareholder returns fail.
Outcome: Production was 631 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and buybacks rose to $386 million from $345 million in Q2 2026.
Test: Positive free cash flow and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA near the $128 million of Q2 2026 pass; a larger Phosphate loss or new cuts to production fail.
Outcome: Free cash flow was only $2 million, Phosphate adjusted EBITDA fell to $49 million, the Phosphate operating loss grew to $194 million, and Mosaic added curtailments at South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo.
Test: Mid-single-digit organic sales growth and adjusted EPS on track for the $7.17 to $7.32 guidance pass; lower guidance or a new large PFAS charge fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 5%, adjusted EPS was $2.09, and DuPont raised its 2026 guidance to $7.47 to $7.52 with no new large PFAS charge.
Test: FRE growth near 20% or more from a year earlier, SRE at or above the $877 million of Q2 and no large credit losses pass; falling SRE, large redemptions or credit write-downs fail.
Outcome: FRE grew 23% and redemptions fell to $3.0 billion, but SRE fell to $844 million from $877 million in Q2 after a $65 million actuarial charge, so the SRE condition missed.
Test: Total revenue within the ¥114 billion to ¥116 billion guidance and monthly transacting users above a year earlier pass; a fall in users or revenue below the guidance fails.
Outcome: Total revenue was ¥118.1 billion, above the guidance, and monthly transacting users rose 9% to 42.2 million.
Test: Clear unit, margin and cost targets with dated milestones pass; vague targets or a lower profit outlook fail.
Outcome: CarMax set targets through fiscal 2030 for retail used units, adjusted EPS, SG&A savings, gross profit per car and CAF Tier 2 loans, with dated milestones.
Test: Organic revenue inside the outlook of minus 1% to 0% for the year, a stable margin and no new outlook cut pass; another cut or a larger revenue decline fails.
Outcome: Organic revenue was flat in Q3 2026, the adjusted operating margin was 31.2% against 31.8% in Q2 2026, and Fiserv kept its outlook of minus 1% to 0% organic revenue for 2026.
Test: Water Innovations sales that fall less than in Q2, a higher margin before charges without tariff refunds and the 2026 outlook kept pass; another sales decline of more than 4% or an outlook cut fails.
Outcome: Water Innovations sales fell 5.5%, less than the 6.5% of Q2, but the operating margin before charges fell to 14.0% from 17.9% and the company cut its 2026 EPS outlook to $3.20 to $3.30.
Test: Constant-currency revenue growth of 8% or more and a margin decline within the guided 3 to 4 points pass; a larger margin decline or slower growth fails.
Outcome: Constant-currency revenue grew 11%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin fell 3.3 points to 1.2%, inside the guided 3 to 4 points.
Test: US local case growth near 2.5%, a kept fiscal 2027 outlook and no new delay of the deal pass; a lower outlook or a later closing date fails.
Outcome: US local case volume grew 2.7%, Sysco kept its 6% to 7% sales and 9% to 11% adjusted EPS growth outlook, though with sales now at the low end, and it still expects to close the deal by the third fiscal quarter.
Test: Room night growth within the guided 3% to 5% and full-year adjusted EPS growth in the low to mid teens pass; growth below the guidance or a cut to the full-year outlook fails.
Outcome: Room nights grew 7%, above the guided range, and Booking kept its 2026 guidance for adjusted EPS growth in the low to mid teens, although it guided Q4 2026 room night growth of only 1% to 3%.
Test: Positive same-store sales and a restaurant margin at or above Q3 2025's 17.3% pass; negative same-store sales or a lower restaurant margin from delivery costs fails.
Outcome: Same-store sales fell 3%, although the restaurant margin rose to 17.8% from 17.3%.
Test: Taco Bell US same-store sales that improve each month to positive in October, and a Taco Bell US margin within 19% to 21%, pass; a deeper decline or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Taco Bell US same-store sales fell 4% in Q3, more than the 2% decline through July 27, and Yum did not say that October sales were positive, although the US restaurant margin of 20.5% was within the range.
Test: Recurring revenue growth on track for the 6% to 8% range and kept guidance pass; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Recurring revenue grew 11% in constant currency, with 9 points of organic growth, and Broadridge kept all of its fiscal 2027 guidance.
Test: Adjusted operating margin of 11% or more with organic sales growth of 4% or more passes; less fails.
Outcome: Adjusted operating margin was 12.1% and organic sales rose 6%. The company raised its outlook.
Test: Profit progress of about half of the annual forecast or more passes; a cut in the forecast fails.
Outcome: Profit rose 15.5% to ¥347.9 billion, and Sumitomo raised its annual forecast to ¥670.0 billion.
Test: Revenue of $1.225 billion or more and non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 or more pass; results below the guidance fail.
Outcome: Revenue was $1.26 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $4.57, above the guidance.
Test: 2026 guidance kept at $4.25 to $4.45 or raised passes; a cut fails.
Outcome: EPS was $1.98, and Entergy narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.35 to $4.45.
Test: Recurring diagnostics revenue growth of 9% or more and a raised EPS outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Recurring diagnostics revenue grew 11%, and IDEXX raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $14.96 to $15.16.
Test: Adjusted EBITDA growth and the upper half of the 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $2.039 billion, and Williams expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of $8.3 billion to $8.5 billion.
Test: RevPAR growth above the full-year outlook and net rooms growth near 4.5% pass; falling RevPAR or a lower outlook fail.
Outcome: Worldwide RevPAR rose 6.5%, net rooms grew 4.6% and Marriott raised its 2026 RevPAR outlook to 4.5% to 5.0% growth.
Test: U.S. RevPAR within the 0% to 1.25% guidance range and better U.S. net rooms growth pass; a cut to adjusted EBITDA guidance or falling U.S. rooms fail.
Outcome: U.S. RevPAR rose 3.8%, U.S. rooms were about flat after a 0.3% fall in the year to June, and Choice raised its RevPAR and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Test: Operating EPS on track for the $4.28 to $4.40 guidance and the 6% to 8% growth outlook kept pass; a cut to either fails.
Outcome: Operating EPS was $3.56 for the first nine months, up from $3.33, and PSEG kept both its 2026 guidance and its 6% to 8% growth outlook.
Test: AFFO per share growth near 4% and occupancy near 99% pass; a cut in 2026 guidance or occupancy below 98% fails.
Outcome: AFFO per share rose 3.7% to $1.12, occupancy stayed at 98.8%, and Realty Income raised its 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $4.45 to $4.46.
Test: A close by the end of 2026 on the agreed terms passes; a delay into 2027 or new conditions from regulators fail.
Outcome: Kimberly-Clark completed the purchase on November 2, 2026, on the agreed terms of 0.14625 Kimberly-Clark shares and $3.50 in cash for each Kenvue share.
Test: Oil production within the 517 to 527 thousand barrels per day guidance, capital spending within $950 million to $1,050 million and lower net debt pass; lower production or higher spending fails.
Outcome: Oil production was 525 thousand barrels per day, capital spending was $1,026 million and Diamondback's own net debt fell by $269 million, but consolidated net debt rose by $513 million because Viper's debt rose.
Test: Higher lab occupancy, more signed lab leases and FFO as adjusted on track for the $1.73 to $1.77 guidance pass; lower lab occupancy or lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Lab occupancy rose 1.3 percentage points, Healthpeak signed 480,000 square feet of lab leases, and it raised its FFO as adjusted guidance to $1.76 to $1.78 per share.
Test: Results on track for the raised 2026 guidance and a higher Off-Highway margin than the 15% of Q2 pass; a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Allison raised its 2026 guidance again on record legacy sales, but the Off-Highway adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 13%, below the 15% of Q2 that the test asked to beat.
Test: US churn within the guided $132 million to $136 million and AFFO per share guidance kept or raised pass; more churn or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: US churn for 2026 stayed inside the range at $133 million to $136 million, and SBA raised the midpoint of its AFFO per share outlook by $0.08 to $12.15 to $12.37.
Test: Revenue within the $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion guidance and a non-GAAP gross margin of 40% or more pass; revenue below the guidance or a lower gross margin fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 11% to $1.72 billion, inside the guidance, and the non-GAAP gross margin rose to 41.2%.
Test: A smaller fall in product revenue, subscription growth near 12% and a kept 2026 revenue outlook pass; another product decline near 14% or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Product revenue fell 19%, subscriptions grew 11%, and Check Point cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $2,732 million to $2,782 million.
Test: VOXZOGO revenue on track for at least $1 billion in 2026 and an FDA review of the hypochondroplasia application on schedule pass; lower VOXZOGO guidance or a delay fails.
Outcome: BioMarin lowered its 2026 VOXZOGO guidance to $975 million to $1,025 million because a large international order moved, although the FDA set a target date of May 30, 2027 for the hypochondroplasia decision.
Test: The deal closes in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the agreed terms; a new delay past 2026 or a failed regulatory approval fails.
Outcome: Kimberly-Clark completed the purchase on November 2, 2026, on the agreed terms of 0.14625 Kimberly-Clark shares and $3.50 in cash for each Kenvue share.
Test: A first-quarter sales decline no larger than management warned, an unchanged fiscal 2027 outlook and lower net debt pass; a cut to the sales or earnings outlook fails.
Outcome: Clorox kept its sales and adjusted EPS ranges, but it now expects EPS near the low end, it cut the gross margin outlook to about 41.5% and net debt rose a little to $4.97 billion, so the pass conditions did not all hold.
Test: Closing by the end of 2026 as planned passes; a block by regulators or a long delay fails.
Outcome: The purchase closed on November 1, 2026, for $700 million in cash, before the end of 2026 as planned.
Test: October gaming revenue flat or higher than a year earlier, after Golden Week, passes; a fifth monthly fall fails.
Outcome: October gaming revenue fell 10.0% from a year earlier to MOP 21.68 billion, the fifth monthly fall in a row.
Test: The first owned hotel sales close in the first half of 2027 near book value pass; no sales or sales at large losses fail.
Outcome: Choice sold two owned hotels in October 2026, earlier than planned, for about $34 million of net cash and kept their franchise agreements.
Test: Revenue and profit growth with a Life Care margin near 20% pass; lower profit fails.
Outcome: Profit from ordinary operating activities rose 27.2%, and the Life Care margin was 21.2%.
Test: Volume growth and adjusted EPS growth near the top of the guidance pass; a lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Revenue ton-miles rose 4% and adjusted diluted EPS rose 18%, and CN said that 2026 EPS growth tracks to the upper end of its range.
Test: Organic sales growth near 3% or more with higher margins passes; a decrease in volume fails.
Outcome: Organic sales rose 3.6% with volume up 1.7%, and the company raised its Base Business EPS guidance for 2026.
Test: Higher Sanofi collaboration revenue after the repayment of the Development Balance and EYLEA HD growth that offsets EYLEA pass; a larger fall in combined EYLEA sales fails.
Outcome: Sanofi collaboration revenue rose 68% to $2,724 million, non-GAAP EPS rose 70% to $20.07 and combined U.S. sales of EYLEA HD and EYLEA fell only 1%.
Test: A clear fall in net debt from $22.3 billion and steady upstream production pass; higher net debt or a fall in production fail.
Outcome: Net debt fell by $8.4 billion to $13.9 billion and production stayed at about 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Test: Income on track for about £17.9 billion in 2026, a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more pass; lower guidance or higher impairments fail.
Outcome: Income rose 9.6% in the first nine months, the loan impairment rate was 21 basis points, the CET1 ratio rose to 13.5%, and NatWest kept its outlook.
Test: Results that keep the 6.3% to 6.6% Adjusted EBIT margin outlook and the free cash flow outlook pass; a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Magna kept the midpoint of its adjusted EPS outlook, raised free cash flow to $1.85 billion to $1.90 billion, and narrowed the margin outlook to 6.3% to 6.5%.
Test: Margins that stay well above the 2025 level and strong cash flow pass; a fast return to 2025 margins fails.
Outcome: EPS excluding identified items was $2.54, against $1.01 in Q3 2025, and cash from operations was $1.7 billion, although margins fell from Q2 2026.
Test: Core FFO guidance kept at $7.48 to $7.56 per share or raised, with higher occupancy, passes; a cut in guidance or falling occupancy fails.
Outcome: Federal Realty raised its Core FFO guidance to $7.54 to $7.58 per share, and occupancy stayed at 93.8% while the leased rate rose to 96.5%.
Test: Exelon keeps its 2026 guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and its growth target near the top of 5% to 7% passes; a lower guidance or a cut in the capital plan fails.
Outcome: Exelon raised the low end of its 2026 guidance to $2.85 per share, kept its growth target near the top of 5% to 7% and did not cut its capital plan.
Test: Operating earnings in line with the 2026 guidance and progress on the state merger approvals pass; lower guidance or a new delay in the approval schedule fails.
Outcome: Operating earnings rose to $1.28 per share, Dominion now expects the top half of its 2026 guidance, and the state commissions set hearing schedules with final orders in Virginia and South Carolina expected in January 2027.
Test: Dupixent growth above 20% at constant exchange rates and the guidance of about 10% sales growth kept pass; a guidance cut or a sharp slowdown in Dupixent fails.
Outcome: Dupixent sales rose 34.8% at constant exchange rates, and Sanofi raised its 2026 guidance to sales growth of a low-teens percentage.
Test: Core operating margin near or above 5% and a held or raised 2026 outlook pass; a cut to the outlook because of lower production or tariffs fails.
Outcome: Core operating margin was 4.4%, and Lear kept its core operating earnings outlook but cut its 2026 sales and free cash flow outlooks because of lower production on key platforms.
Test: A smaller fall in same-store new and used unit sales than in Q2 2026 and growth in After-Sales gross profit pass; a larger fall in units or in adjusted operating income fails.
Outcome: Same-store used unit sales fell 6% against 8% in Q2 2026, new unit sales fell 5% as in Q2, After-Sales gross profit was a record and adjusted operating income fell 7%, no more than in Q2.
Test: Positive organic sales growth and a stable adjusted operating margin pass; a return to falling sales fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 2.9%, the fourth quarter of growth in a row, and the adjusted operating margin rose to 21.9% from 21.5%.
Test: A large backlog increase from the submarine awards, a Marine Systems margin at or above 7.4% and a 2026 plan of about 160 Gulfstream deliveries pass; a lower delivery plan or lower EPS guidance fails.
Outcome: Backlog rose to $220.3 billion, the Marine Systems margin was 7.9% in the quarter, and the company raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $17.20 to $17.30.
Test: Revenue growth at constant exchange rates in the mid-to-high single digits with the 2026 guidance kept passes; a cut to guidance or slower growth of the new cancer drugs fails.
Outcome: Total Revenue rose 7% and Core EPS rose 14% at constant exchange rates in the first nine months, Oncology grew 16%, and AstraZeneca kept its 2026 guidance.
Test: Net revenues at or above the mid-point of the outlook range pass; below fail.
Outcome: Net revenues were $3,757 million, above the mid-point of the outlook range.
Test: Adjusted revenue within the outlook of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion passes; a result below it fails.
Outcome: Adjusted revenue was $2,574 million and adjusted net income was $419 million.
Test: Fee related earnings above $500 million and more than $30 billion of gross commitments pass; lower figures fail.
Outcome: FRE was $524.2 million and Ares raised more than $31 billion of gross commitments.
Test: 2026 guidance kept or narrowed and 2027 guidance for EPS growth of 6% or more pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Xcel Energy narrowed its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10 to $4.16 and gave 2027 guidance of $4.48 to $4.62.
Test: ROTE above 10% and a cost-to-income ratio below 60% pass; a cut of the 2026 targets fails.
Outcome: ROTE was 13.0% in Q3 2026 and 12.3% in the first nine months, and the cost-to-income ratio was 58.8% in the first nine months.
Test: Growth of bitcoins per share in 2026 passes; a fall fails.
Outcome: The bitcoins per share fell by 3.7% in the year to October 25, 2026, although the holdings grew by 26%.
Test: Higher Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and a kept or higher guidance pass; a lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $1,900 million, and Cheniere raised its 2026 guidance to $8.75 to $9.25 billion.
Test: Bookings above $300 million at its share and a higher 2026 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Bookings were a record $627 million, and Digital Realty raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $8.30 to $8.35.
Test: Core EPS growth and a confirmed or higher forecast pass; a lower forecast fails.
Outcome: Core EPS rose to ¥308, and Takeda raised its Core EPS forecast to ¥482.
Test: ATM revenue growth above 40% and a higher ATM margin pass; a lower ATM margin fails.
Outcome: ATM revenues rose 51.0%, and the ATM operating margin rose to 20.0% from 15.7% in Q2 2026.
Test: Organic growth of 5% or more and higher adjusted EBITDAC margins pass; organic growth below 4% fails.
Outcome: Organic growth was 5%, and adjusted EBITDAC rose 25% with a higher margin.
Test: Net interest income growth with an asset quality ratio near 25 basis points passes; a new motor finance charge fails.
Outcome: Underlying net interest income rose 10%, the asset quality ratio was 25 basis points and there was no new motor finance charge.
Test: Core price above cost inflation and a higher 2026 guidance pass; a lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Core price added 5.3% to revenue, and the company raised its 2026 guidance for revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.
Test: Marketplace GOV and Adjusted EBITDA within or above the outlook of $33.0 billion to $34.0 billion and $950 million to $1,100 million pass; below fails.
Outcome: Marketplace GOV was $33.9 billion and Adjusted EBITDA was $1,060 million, both within the outlook.
Test: Profit growth and a higher 2026 forecast pass; a lower forecast fails.
Outcome: Adjusted operating profit rose 21.6% in the first nine months, and JT raised its 2026 forecast for profit to ¥662.0 billion.
Test: Higher distributable cash flow and coverage of 1.7 times or more pass; lower coverage fails.
Outcome: Operational distributable cash flow rose 27% to $2.31 billion and covered the distribution 1.9 times.
Test: Results above guidance and higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted diluted EPS rose to $6.06 from $3.33, backlog reached $63.7 billion, and Quanta raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $17.90 to $18.30.
Test: Results above guidance and higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 29% and adjusted EPS rose 54% to $1.46, and Howmet raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.49 to $5.51.
Test: Bookings growth with book-to-bill above 100% and a stable or higher adjusted operating margin pass; falling bookings or a lower margin fail.
Outcome: Organic bookings rose 20% and adjusted EPS rose 25%, but the adjusted operating margin fell 40 basis points to 20.2%.
Test: A return on tangible equity above 15%, higher commercial net interest income and a CET1 ratio near 13% with a new distribution pass; a lower outlook or no distribution fail.
Outcome: The return on tangible equity was 16.3%, commercial net interest income rose 13.4%, the CET1 ratio was 13.3% and ING announced a €1.9 billion distribution.
Test: Revenue growth of about 5% and a confirmed 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook or a large fall in the Solvency II ratio fail.
Outcome: Revenues rose 5% to Euro 93.0 billion and AXA confirmed its 2026 outlook, although the Solvency II ratio fell 5 points to 213%.
Test: 2026 guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 per share reaffirmed or raised passes; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: WEC raised and narrowed its 2026 guidance to $5.60 to $5.64 per share, helped by warm weather and investment for the Very Large Customers.
Test: Results on track for the $6.40 to $6.60 adjusted EPS guidance with the extra MV-75 funding received pass; a cut to the guidance or a funding delay fails.
Outcome: The Army received Congressional approval for the extra MV-75 funding, and Textron raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.55 to $6.65.
Test: Stable or growing self-pay subscribers, churn near 1.5% a month and the raised 2026 guidance kept pass; a loss of more than 100,000 self-pay subscribers or a cut to guidance fails.
Outcome: Self-pay subscribers grew by about 5,000, churn was about 1.5% a month, and the company raised its 2026 guidance again.
Test: Revenue growth near 8% or more in constant currency, with growth in U.S. devices and masks and a non-GAAP gross margin near 62%, passes; slower device growth or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 7% on a core constant currency basis, Americas device and mask revenue grew 8% and 10%, and the non-GAAP gross margin rose to 62.5%.
Test: Consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more, a smaller fall at Popeyes U.S. and the 8% organic growth target kept pass; a fall in comparable sales growth below 2% or a lower target fails.
Outcome: Comparable sales grew 3.8%, Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 2.2% after 5.2% in Q2, and RBI kept its 8% organic growth target for 2026.
Test: Revenue within the Q3 guidance of $5.60 billion to $5.68 billion and growing bookings pass; revenue below guidance or another fall in bookings fail.
Outcome: Revenue of $5.66 billion was within the guidance, but Q3 bookings fell 7% from a year earlier, after a 6% fall in Q2.
Test: 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 billion to $8.5 billion kept or raised pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: CRH cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion, although the new guidance includes Arcosa.
Test: Adjusted EPS on track for the $3.33 to $3.53 guidance and a clear path on the holding company conditions pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: PGE lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.18 to $3.28 after the mildest Q3 in a decade, although it kept its long-term growth targets.
Test: Year-to-date results on track for the upper half of the $3.36 to $3.46 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Ongoing EPS for the first nine months rose 14% to $2.99, and Alliant Energy narrowed its 2026 guidance to $3.41 to $3.46, the top half of the original range.
Test: Occupancy near 96.4%, same property NOI growth of at least 3.0% and FFO guidance of $1.83 to $1.84 kept pass; lower occupancy or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Occupancy rose to a record 96.6%, same property NOI grew 4.9%, and Kimco raised its 2026 FFO guidance to $1.84 to $1.86 per share.
Test: 2026 EPS guidance of $6.30 to $6.45 kept or raised with less than $15 million of extra tax credits passes; a guidance cut or more tax credit use fails.
Outcome: Q3 EPS rose to $2.73, and IDACORP raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $6.40 to $6.50 with less than $10 million of extra tax credits.
Test: Adjusted EPS near $1.97, higher Advanced Materials and Fibers earnings and a working capital release pass; adjusted EPS well below $1.97 or a lower cash flow outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $1.84, Fibers earnings fell from a year earlier, and Eastman lowered its 2026 operating cash flow outlook to about $850 million.
Test: Revenue within $1.4 to $1.5 billion and adjusted EPS within $1.20 to $1.40 with lean dealer inventories pass; results below the range or a cut in full-year guidance fail.
Outcome: Net sales were $1.45 billion and adjusted EPS was $1.58, above the range, with lean boat and engine pipelines, and Brunswick raised its 2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of about $4.65.
Test: Adjusted EPS within or above $1.45 to $1.53 and growth in all three segments pass; adjusted EPS below the range or a lower Pharma margin fail.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $1.52 and all three segments grew, but the Pharma margin fell 80 basis points to 36.4%, which stays above Aptar's long-term target.
Test: Adjusted EPS on track for the $5.50 to $5.75 outlook and lower dealer inventories pass; another cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: AGCO cut its 2026 outlook again, to net sales of $9.8 to $10.0 billion and adjusted EPS of about $5.50, after Q3 adjusted EPS fell to $1.05.
Test: Currency-neutral revenue growth near the 9% to 10% full-year outlook and the operating profit target of about € 2.3 billion confirmed pass; a cut to either target fails.
Outcome: adidas kept its outlook for 9% to 10% currency-neutral revenue growth and raised its operating profit target to about € 2.5 billion, helped by a one-time tariff refund.
Test: Higher fire truck deliveries than in Q2 and a 2026 outlook kept near adjusted EPS of $11.00 pass; another cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Fire truck production fell from Q2 2026, and Oshkosh cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $8.50 to $9.50 from about $11.00.
Test: Kept or raised 2026 revenue, EPS and free cash flow guidance with book-to-bill above 1 pass; a guidance cut or a large charge on a missile program fails.
Outcome: L3Harris raised its 2026 revenue and EPS guidance, kept free cash flow guidance at $3.0 billion and had a book-to-bill of 3.2.
Test: Core EPS guidance of $5.90 to $6.20 kept and no large new Eaton Fire charge pass; a cut to guidance, a plan to sell new shares or a large new loss estimate fails.
Outcome: Edison kept its 2026 to 2028 core EPS guidance and its plan with no new shares, and its $1.8 billion of Eaton Fire settlements left a net after-tax charge of only $9 million.
Test: An adjusted operating margin that stops falling from a year earlier and the 2026 outlook of about $2.90 adjusted EPS kept pass; a further margin fall or a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: The adjusted operating margin rose 260 basis points to 17.4%, helped by one-time tariff refunds, and Carrier set 2026 adjusted EPS at $2.85 to $2.90, close to the earlier outlook of about $2.90.
Test: Revenue growth near the 22.4% rise in Q3 volume and a credit fee per million that stops falling pass; credit revenue that again grows much slower than credit volume fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 14.9% while volume grew 22.4%, and the cash credit fee per million fell 10.6%, so credit revenue again grew much slower than credit volume.
Test: Organic growth within the 8.3% to 9.3% outlook and a clear date for full peripheral vascular supply pass; a lower outlook or supply problems into 2027 fail.
Outcome: Organic growth was 7.7%, hip sales fell 1.0%, and Stryker cut its 2026 outlook to 6.5% to 7.0% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $14.80 to $14.90.
Test: Revenue at or above the $1,140 million to $1,160 million guidance, gross margin near 55% or higher and Q4 guidance that grows again pass; revenue below guidance or a Q4 guide that falls fails.
Outcome: Revenue was $1,202.4 million, the non-GAAP gross margin was 55.7%, and the Q4 guidance of $1,315 million to $1,385 million grows again.
Test: Adjusted EPS that is flat or up in constant currency and a smaller fall in European volume pass; another fall in adjusted EPS or a cut to the 2026 outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS grew 5.5% in constant currency, European volume and mix grew 1.6%, and Mondelez kept its 2026 outlook.
Test: Adjusted EPS of $4.45 to $4.55 or more and a higher adjusted operating margin than in Q2 2026 pass; a lower margin or a cut to the 2026 guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS of $4.59 beat the guidance and Linde raised its 2026 guidance, but the adjusted operating margin of 29.4% was slightly lower than the 29.5% of Q2 2026.
Test: Positive free cash flow, a shipbuilding margin of 6.0% to 6.5% and the full-year free cash flow target kept pass; another quarter of negative cash flow or a cut to the target fails.
Outcome: Free cash flow was positive $429 million, the shipbuilding margin was about 6.9%, and HII kept its 2026 free cash flow target of $500 million to $600 million.
Test: A pass is Growth Portfolio growth near 15% and 2026 guidance kept or raised; a fail is slower Growth Portfolio growth or a guidance cut.
Outcome: Growth Portfolio growth slowed to 12% and the EPS guidance fell to $6.35 to $6.55 because of licensing charges, although the revenue guidance rose.
Test: North America price increases that hold, unchanged 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.70 to $3.85, and a decision on China pass; a cut to the guidance or a further large fall in China sales fails.
Outcome: A. O. Smith agreed to sell 81% of its China business, but China sales fell another 17% in local currency, and the guidance without China of $3.42 to $3.52 is near the 2025 level.
Test: Brazil beer volume that still grows after the World Cup and normalized EBITDA growth above revenue growth pass; a fall in Brazil beer volume or a lower EBITDA margin fails.
Outcome: Brazil beer volume grew 0.5% and normalized EBITDA grew 8.9% against revenue growth of 7.6%, though the Brazil beer EBITDA margin fell 1.3 points.
Test: A smaller volume decline, higher adjusted gross margin and the $8.36 to $8.52 EPS outlook held or raised pass; a deeper volume drop or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted gross margin rose to 42.7% and the EPS outlook rose to $8.58 to $8.74, but volume fell about 10 points, more than the 8 points of Q2.
Test: Mortgage technology revenue that still grows from a year earlier with higher mortgage rates, and recurring revenue growth near the 8% of Q2, pass; a fall in mortgage technology revenue from a year earlier fails.
Outcome: Mortgage technology revenue grew 4% to $549 million and recurring revenue grew 7%, while net revenue grew 15% on higher trading volume.
Test: Shareholder approval and no second request or suit from the Department of Justice pass; a failed vote or a longer antitrust review that delays closing fails.
Outcome: The US antitrust waiting period ended early on October 21, 2026, and MarketAxess shareholders approved the deal on October 29, 2026.
Test: AWS growth near the Q2 level of 37%, an operating margin near or above 39.4%, and a backlog that keeps growing pass; a margin drop or a stall in AWS growth fails.
Outcome: AWS growth rose to 39%, its operating margin stayed near the Q2 level at 38.7%, and the backlog grew to $578 billion from $496 billion.
Test: OXXO Mexico same-store sales growth of 5% or more with rising traffic passes; falling traffic fails.
Outcome: Same-store sales rose 9.2% and traffic rose 3.5%.
Test: Organic growth above 6% and a higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Organic growth was 7.4%, and GFL raised its 2026 guidance for the third time.
Test: Volume growth in all four regions and the 2026 guidance kept pass; a cut fails.
Outcome: Total volume grew 4.8% with growth in all four regions, and Heineken confirmed 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth for 2026.
Test: Sales growth of 10% or more and an outlook for double-digit growth in fiscal 2027 pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Q4 sales rose 12% to $5.3 billion, and TE expects double-digit sales growth in fiscal 2027.
Test: Revenues on track for about €33 billion in 2026 and a CET1 ratio of 13.5% or more pass; a cut of the revenue ambition fails.
Outcome: The bank said that revenues are on track for more than €33 billion, and the CET1 ratio was 14.0%.
Test: Organic orders growth and an adjusted operating margin of 24% or more pass; a fall in orders fails.
Outcome: Organic orders rose more than 100%, and the adjusted operating margin was 25.2%.
Test: Higher adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS pass; lower adjusted operating income fails.
Outcome: Adjusted operating income rose to $1.20 billion and adjusted EPS to $3.74, and FedEx raised its 2026 outlook.
Test: Comparable store sales growth near 5% or more with higher operating margin passes; a slowdown fails.
Outcome: Comparable store sales rose 7.2%, the operating margin rose to 21.4% and the company raised its 2026 guidance.
Test: Core adjusted EPS growth near the guidance and volume growth pass; a cut to guidance fails.
Outcome: Core adjusted diluted EPS rose 16% to C$1.28, volumes rose 6%, and the company said that it remains on track for its 2026 commitments.
Test: Unit growth near 40% and a kept Adjusted EBITDA outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Retail units rose 39% to 217,385, and Carvana expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the higher end of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion.
Test: High refining utilization, a higher realized margin and lower debt pass; weak margins or higher debt fail.
Outcome: The realized refining margin rose to $38.00 per barrel, adjusted EPS was $14.08 and total debt fell by $2.0 billion to $18.5 billion.
Test: Production in line with the adjusted plan, costs within guidance and higher net cash pass; a production cut or costs above guidance fail.
Outcome: Production of 814,012 ounces was in line with the adjusted plan and net cash rose to $3.42 billion, while costs moved to the upper end of guidance.
Test: Double-digit growth in recurring revenue and a raised 2026 guidance pass; lower bookings or a guidance cut fail.
Outcome: Annualized gross bookings reached a record $533 million, up 35%, and Equinix raised its 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $43.71 to $44.11.
Test: Positive adjusted EBITDA in the lumber, NA EWP and Europe EWP segments and shipments on track for the 2026 targets pass; negative adjusted EBITDA or lower shipment targets fail.
Outcome: NA EWP adjusted EBITDA was negative $4 million, and West Fraser now expects 2026 lumber and North American OSB shipments at the low end of its ranges.
Test: Domestic Private Client Group net new asset growth of about 5% or more annualized, stable client cash balances and continued investment banking growth pass; outflows or a large fall in client cash fail.
Outcome: Domestic Private Client Group net new assets grew at an annualized 5.3%, client cash balances were $58.0 billion, up 3% from a year earlier, and investment banking revenues rose 17%.
Test: A smaller decline in American revenue and adjusted EBITDA than in Q3 and fiscal 2027 guidance for higher free cash flow pass; a faster U.S. decline or a new impairment fail.
Outcome: The American declines slowed to 4.6% for revenue and 7.7% for adjusted EBITDA, but the fiscal 2027 free cash flow guidance of $500 million to $550 million is not above the $554.1 million of fiscal 2026.
Test: A reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and progress on GenCo projects pass; lower guidance or a delay in the data center projects fails.
Outcome: NiSource narrowed its 2026 guidance to the upper half of the range, gave 2027 guidance of $2.22 to $2.30 and signed a new data center contract with Microsoft, although the gas plant for Amazon now starts operation in 2030.
Test: A Markel Insurance combined ratio of 95% or lower and no new large credit loss at State National pass; a combined ratio above 97% or a new large provision fails.
Outcome: Markel Insurance's combined ratio was 92% in Q3 2026, and the Financial segment earned $80 million of adjusted operating income with no new large provision at State National.
Test: Growth in Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR and stable MGM China margins pass; a fall in Las Vegas EBITDAR fails.
Outcome: Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 12% on lower room rates, and MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 7%.
Test: Positive new lease rent growth, occupancy near 97% and 2026 Core FFO guidance near $1.95 pass; lower rents or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Invitation Homes raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $1.96 per share, but new lease rents fell 0.2% and average occupancy fell to 96.4%.
Test: Ford keeps or raises its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion and Ford Pro margins improve as aluminum supply recovers; a cut in guidance or a large new special charge fails.
Outcome: Ford raised the low end of its adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.5 billion and had only $127 million of special items, but the Ford Pro EBIT margin fell to 9.4% from 11.4%, so the margin test failed.
Test: Like-for-like sales growth inside the 3% to 5% range and a recovery in infant formula in Europe pass; growth below 3% or a further fall in infant formula fails.
Outcome: Like-for-like sales grew 4.0% and Danone confirmed its guidance, and infant formula in Europe kept a slow recovery.
Test: Production within the guidance of 4.25 to 4.3 Bcfe per day, lower unit costs and free cash flow that reduces debt pass; a large fall in cash flow or higher costs fail.
Outcome: Costs fell below guidance and adjusted EBITDAX almost doubled, but production of 4.23 Bcfe per day was below the 4.25 to 4.3 guidance after curtailments, and debt rose to $2.78 billion after the July purchase.
Test: Organic revenue growth of 5% or more and the 2026 guidance kept pass; organic growth below 4% or a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Organic revenue growth was 6% and adjusted EPS rose 10% to $3.36, and Aon said it expects strong results for the full year 2026.
Test: Results on track for adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, with better price against cost than in the first half, pass; a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Amrize cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.95 billion to $3.05 billion because of cost inflation and high interest rates.
Test: Revenues within the $1,000 million to $1,020 million outlook, Clear Aligner volume up mid-single digits and a non-GAAP operating margin near 24% pass; results below the outlook fail.
Outcome: Revenues were $1,014.8 million, Clear Aligner volume rose 6.6% and the non-GAAP operating margin was 24.4%, but Align lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to about 2% growth.
Test: Year-to-date operating EPS on track for the $6.25 to $6.55 guidance and signed new load at 69 gigawatts or more pass; a cut to the guidance or lost load agreements fail.
Outcome: AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the high end of $6.25 to $6.55, and contracted new load rose to 84 gigawatts by 2031.
Test: Postpaid net account additions on track for the 950,000 to 1.05 million guidance with churn near 1% pass; lower guidance or a clear rise in churn fails.
Outcome: T-Mobile kept about 1.0 million net account additions for 2026 and raised its profit guidance, but postpaid account churn rose clearly to 1.09% from 0.97% a year earlier.
Test: A higher Aerials margin than in Q2, an adjusted EBITDA margin above 12% and the 2026 outlook kept pass; a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: The Aerials margin rose to 8.7% and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.0%, but Terex lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $930 million to $960 million.
Test: A smaller fall or growth in Home Comfort Solutions revenue and a kept 2026 EPS range pass; another guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Home Comfort Solutions revenue rose 3%, but Lennox cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $21.00 to $21.50 from $23.00 to $24.00.
Test: Net sales growth with stable volume, gross margin near 49% and the 2026 guidance kept pass; falling volume or a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Net sales grew 6% with modest volume growth, gross margin was 47.9%, and Hayward raised its 2026 guidance to adjusted diluted EPS of $0.86 to $0.88.
Test: New vehicle gross profit per car that stops falling and US adjusted SG&A near 66% of gross profit pass; another large fall in gross profit and EPS fails.
Outcome: New vehicle gross profit per car fell 5.4% to $3,074, US adjusted SG&A rose to 67.7% of gross profit, and adjusted EPS fell to $9.36 from $10.45.
Test: FTC clearance and closing in the second half of 2026, as the company expects, pass; an FTC challenge or a delay into 2027 fails.
Outcome: On October 28, 2026, the company said that it now expects the purchase to close in early 2027, after the remaining regulatory clearances.
Test: A clear recovery plan, with most lost sales expected back by early 2027 and U.S. electrophysiology growth that does not slow further, passes; a large cut to the outlook or a longer disruption fails.
Outcome: U.S. electrophysiology sales fell 8%, the company cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.16 to $3.18, and it expects Q4 2026 sales to fall 1% to 3%.
Test: Underlying sales growth of 4% or more with positive volume, and the full-year outlook kept, pass; growth below 4% or a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Underlying sales growth was 5.2% with 2.9% from volume, and Unilever raised its 2026 volume outlook to at least 3%.
Test: SaaS revenue growth near 20% or more and bookings that keep growing pass; slower SaaS growth or weaker bookings with no clear cause fail.
Outcome: SaaS revenue grew 21.2%, Tyler called its SaaS bookings strong, and free cash flow reached a quarterly record of $277.0 million.
Test: North American sales that are flat or up in local currency and an adjusted operating margin near Q2 without new tariff refunds pass; another fall in North American sales or a cut to the 2026 outlook fails.
Outcome: North American sales grew 5% in local currency, the adjusted operating margin rose to 17.9% from 16.3% a year earlier, and Masco raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $4.65 to $4.75.
Test: Core EPS growth in line with 7% to 9% for 2026 and growth in Specialty Medicines at a low double-digit rate pass; a guidance cut or a further pipeline impairment fails.
Outcome: GSK kept its 2026 core EPS growth guidance of 7% to 9%, Specialty Medicines grew 15% and there was no significant impairment, although core EPS grew only 1% in the quarter.
Test: An adjusted EBIT margin on track for 15.4% to 15.7% and strong free cash flow toward the $1.6 billion target pass; lower guidance or weak cash flow fails.
Outcome: The adjusted EBIT margin rose to 16.6%, free cash flow was $793 million, and the company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance.
Test: A pass is Q3 comparable sales at or above the guided 1% with positive transactions; a fail is negative transactions or a guidance cut because of the salmonella event.
Outcome: Comparable sales grew 2.1% with transactions up 0.8%, and Chipotle kept its 2026 guidance, but the restaurant-level margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5%.
Test: A budget that fills the £4.7 billion Defence Investment Plan gap or sets a path to 3% of GDP passes; a budget that leaves the gap open fails.
Outcome: The budget fully funded the Defence Investment Plan, including the £4.7 billion gap, and set 2030 as the target date for 3% of GDP.
Test: Sales within or above $9.3 to $9.4 billion, split-adjusted adjusted EPS of at least $0.70, and a book-to-bill above 1 pass; a book-to-bill below 1 or lower IT datacom orders fail.
Outcome: Sales of $10.23 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.80 were above the guidance, and record orders of $12.2 billion gave a book-to-bill of 1.19.
Test: Better supplier output, guidance held at 4% to 5% organic growth and H2 free cash flow of $1.0 to $1.5 billion pass; a second guidance cut fails.
Outcome: The company kept its organic growth guidance, raised its EPS and second-half free cash flow guidance, and saw encouraging signs from its slowest suppliers.
Test: A Service margin above the Q2 2026 level of 23.2% and adjusted EPS guidance of $4.01 to $4.05 kept pass; a lower Service margin or a third guidance cut fails.
Outcome: The Service margin rose to 24.2% from 23.2% in Q2 2026 and Otis kept its adjusted EPS guidance of $4.01 to $4.05, but it lowered its free cash flow guidance to about $1.5 billion.
Test: A named successor with a clear plan for GOJO and debt reduction passes; a search that continues past fiscal Q3 2027 fails.
Outcome: The board named Fabian Garcia of Unilever as CEO from January 5, 2027, before fiscal Q3 2027, and his plan for GOJO and debt is the next test.
Test: Azure growth near the guided 44% to 45% in constant currency, under the new Azure definition, with stable cloud margins passes; a clear Azure slowdown while capex keeps rising fails.
Outcome: Azure revenue grew 48%, above the guidance, and operating income grew faster than revenue.
Test: Subscription revenue growth near 20% and cRPO at or above guidance pass; growth that slows clearly below 20% or a cRPO miss fails.
Outcome: Subscription revenue grew 21% and cRPO grew 21% in constant currency, both above guidance, and the 2026 AI contract value target rose to $1.7 billion.
Test: Google Cloud growth near the Q2 pace of 82% and continued Search ad growth pass; a sharp Cloud slowdown or falling Search revenue fails.
Outcome: Cloud revenue grew 103% and Search & other revenue grew 12%, but free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion.
Test: A book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 times or more and a raise to the 2026 guidance pass; a lower ratio or a cut fails.
Outcome: R&DS net new bookings were $3.2 billion, the book-to-bill ratio was 1.2 times, and IQVIA raised its 2026 guidance.
Test: Reaffirmed 2026 guidance for sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% passes; a cut fails.
Outcome: Walmex reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, with revenue growth of 3.0% in Q3 2026.
Test: Higher adjusted EBITDA and kept or raised 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $2.24 billion, and ONEOK raised its 2026 guidance for the third time in the year.
Test: Record revenue with strong Net Deposits passes; a fall in revenue fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 12% to a record $1,424 million and Net Deposits were $15.7 billion, but diluted EPS fell 16%.
Test: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of about $5.05 or more and 2027 guidance for growth pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS was $5.16, and the company guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $6.15 to $6.30.
Test: RevPAR growth and a kept or higher 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: RevPAR rose 5.8%, and Hilton raised its 2026 RevPAR outlook to 4.0% to 4.5% and its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $4,060 million to $4,080 million.
Test: Adjusted EPS above a year earlier and kept 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted diluted EPS rose 1.1% to $3.63, and the company narrowed its 2026 guidance to $11.85 to $12.15 with the same midpoint.
Test: Ramp-up on plan and kept targets for 2027 pass; a lower target or a new incident fails.
Outcome: Mill throughput was 67% of capacity, and PTFI kept its targets of 80% in mid-2027 and near full capacity by the end of 2027.
Test: Adjusted EPS above a year earlier and kept or higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose to $6.57 from $5.75, and the company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $17.85 to $17.95.
Test: Revenue growth with a higher adjusted operating margin and a higher 2026 outlook pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9 billion, the adjusted operating margin was 9.0% and UPS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to about $7.28.
Test: Higher adjusted EBITDA and kept guidance pass; another guidance cut or larger losses from the exchanges fail.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA rose 1.2% to $3.918 billion and HCA said 2026 results will be in the upper half of its guidance, although the payer mix shift cost about $400 million.
Test: Revenue and non-GAAP EPS at or above the guidance of $4.1 billion and $7.30 pass; results below guidance or a weak outlook fail.
Outcome: Revenue was $4.23 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $7.68, above guidance, and Seagate guided to higher revenue and EPS for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Test: Organic revenue growth in line with the 2% to 3% outlook, adjusted EPS guidance kept or raised and orders above revenue pass; a lower outlook or weak orders fail.
Outcome: Orders rose 10% organically, but organic revenue was flat and Xylem cut its 2026 revenue outlook and adjusted EPS guidance.
Test: SHOP same-store cash NOI growth above 10% and 2026 normalized FFO guidance kept or raised pass; a guidance cut or a large slowdown in occupancy gains fails.
Outcome: SHOP same-store cash NOI grew 16%, and Ventas raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $3.87 to $3.90 per share.
Test: Same facility revenue growth in both segments and 2026 guidance kept within the revised range pass; a new guidance cut or new large payment cuts fail.
Outcome: Same facility revenue grew in both segments and UHS did not cut its 2026 guidance, although growth slowed and adjusted EPS fell from Q3 2025.
Test: Organic constant currency growth within the 6% to 8% guidance and adjusted EPS of $1.18 or more pass; a cut to the 2026 guidance fails.
Outcome: Organic constant currency revenue grew 8% and adjusted EPS was $1.25, and TransUnion raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.
Test: 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance kept at least at the midpoint of $1.89 to $1.91 and more large-load connections pass; a guidance cut or a lower capital plan fail.
Outcome: CenterPoint raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $1.90 to $1.92 and raised its 10-year capital plan by $4.0 billion to $70.7 billion.
Test: Organic sales growth in the low to mid single digits with prices that cover cost inflation passes; a cut to the $7.70 to $8.10 guidance fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 5%, prices fully offset cost inflation, and PPG raised the midpoint of its adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90 to $8.10.
Test: Higher deliveries than the 38,700 trucks of Q2 2026 and a higher Truck segment margin pass; lower deliveries or a lower margin fail.
Outcome: Deliveries rose to 40,100 trucks and Truck segment pre-tax profit rose to $455 million, about 8% of Truck revenue, from $361 million in Q2 2026.
Test: FirstEnergy keeps its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share and reports more contracted data center demand passes; a lower guidance or new scandal costs fail.
Outcome: FirstEnergy kept its 2026 guidance and now expects results at or slightly above the midpoint, and contracted data center demand rose to 7.9 GW from 6.4 GW in Q2 2026.
Test: Same-store revenue growth of 2.4% or more and Core FFO guidance kept at $8.25 to $8.40 per share pass; slower revenue growth or lower occupancy fails.
Outcome: Same-store revenue grew 2.7%, occupancy was 94.0%, up from 93.7% a year earlier, and Extra Space raised its Core FFO guidance to $8.40 to $8.50 per share.
Test: Same-property revenue growth near 2.8% and stable or rising Los Angeles revenue pass; a cut in the 2026 guidance or a further fall in Southern California fails.
Outcome: Same-property revenue rose 3.0%, Los Angeles County revenue rose 0.1% from Q2, and Essex raised its 2026 Core FFO and same-property guidance.
Test: Sales volume within the 570 to 620 Bcfe guidance, a price differential near the $(0.75) to $(0.65) guidance and positive free cash flow pass; a wider differential or more output cuts fail.
Outcome: Sales volume of 583 Bcfe was within guidance, the differential of $(0.64) was better than guidance and free cash flow attributable to EQT was $283 million, with 21 Bcfe of output cut on purpose.
Test: Occupancy above the 88.4% of Q2, FFO within $1.80 to $1.82 per share and steady leasing pass; lower occupancy or a cut in FFO guidance fail.
Outcome: Total occupancy rose to 89.4%, FFO of $1.89 per share beat the guide, and BXP raised its 2026 FFO guidance to $7.06 to $7.08 per share.
Test: Strong IET orders, stable OFSE margins and a clear plan for Chart synergies and debt reduction pass; weak orders or a cut in guidance fail.
Outcome: IET orders were $5.9 billion, the OFSE EBITDA margin was 18.1%, and the company raised its IET order outlook for 2026 to 2028 to more than $50 billion.
Test: AFFO per share on track for the $11.00 to $11.17 guidance and steady data center growth pass; a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: AFFO per share rose 3.2% to $2.87, data center cash revenue grew 16.3%, and the company raised its 2026 AFFO outlook to $11.04 to $11.16 per share.
Test: Gross margin near 27.5% or higher with growth in residential unit volume passes; gross margin clearly below 27% or a fall in residential unit volume fails.
Outcome: Residential unit volume grew 5%, but gross margin fell to 26.4% from 27.5% a year earlier.
Test: Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances that grow faster than the 3% of Q2 and a 2026 EPS guidance kept near $5.38 pass; slower growth or a lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances grew 3%, not faster than in Q2, so the growth test failed, although PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60.
Test: Adjusted EPS within $1.05 to $1.08 and full-year guidance of $4.60 to $4.80 kept pass; another cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $1.18, above the $1.05 to $1.08 guidance, and Pentair kept the midpoint of its full-year guidance at about $4.70.
Test: Revenue within the $935 million to $945 million guide, adjusted EBITDA of $190 million or more and a profitable Residential segment pass; revenue below the guide or bookings that fall again fail.
Outcome: Revenue of $952 million and adjusted EBITDA of $229 million beat the guide and Residential was profitable, but net new bookings fell again, to $37 million from $69 million in Q2 2026.
Test: SG&A as a share of gross profit lower than the 67.2% of Q2 2026 and the Tekion rollout on plan for fall 2026 pass; a higher cost share or a delay in the rollout fails.
Outcome: Asbury finished the Tekion rollout in mid-October 2026, but SG&A rose to 68.5% of gross profit from 67.2% in Q2 2026.
Test: Off-road vehicle retail sales flat or higher, 2026 guidance kept, and leverage within the normal 3.5 times covenant pass; lower retail sales, a guidance cut or a new covenant waiver fails.
Outcome: Off-road vehicle retail sales grew 2% without Youth models, Polaris raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.50 to $3.60, and it met the normal covenants at September 30, 2026.
Test: Revenue at or above the $3.75 billion middle of guidance, channel inventory near 11 weeks or lower, and Q4 guidance that grows pass; revenue near the low end, more channel inventory or a Q4 guide that falls fails.
Outcome: Revenue of $3.79 billion was above the $3.75 billion middle of guidance, channel inventory stayed at 11 weeks, and the Q4 guidance of $3.85 billion at the middle grows 2% from Q3.
Test: Organic net new assets at a 4% annualized rate or more and stable client cash pass; slower organic growth or a large fall in client cash fails.
Outcome: Organic net new assets grew at a 4.5% annualized rate, and client cash stayed at $56.6 billion, 2.2% of client assets.
Test: Positive free cash flow in Q3 and a 737 line stable at 47 a month pass; a cash outflow, new charges, or a slower 737 rate fail.
Outcome: Free cash flow was $0.5 billion with no new large program charge, and the 737 line kept moving toward a stable 47 a month.
Test: Core Reckitt like-for-like growth at or above the 4.2% of Q2, in line with 4% to 5% for the year, passes; growth back below 3% or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Core Reckitt like-for-like growth slowed to 3.3% in Q3 2026, and Reckitt cut its 2026 guidance to 3.5% to 4.5% from 4% to 5%.
Test: Healthcare Solutions revenue growth, synergies on track and EBITDA guidance of $8.15 to $8.25 billion kept pass; another revenue cut or lower EBITDA guidance fails.
Outcome: Healthcare Solutions revenue grew 3.7%, and WM affirmed its EBITDA guidance and expects revenue at the high end of its range.
Test: Ratings revenue growth that stays strong with hyperscaler issuance near the $250 to $300 billion forecast pass; a sharp drop in issuance-driven revenue fails.
Outcome: Ratings revenue grew only 2% against a strong prior year, but it did not drop, and S&P Global raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance because of higher expected Ratings and Indices revenue.
Test: EPS above Q2 2026 and steel mills use of capacity near 90% pass; lower EPS fails.
Outcome: EPS rose to $5.80 from $5.04 in Q2 2026, and the steel mills ran at 89% of capacity.
Test: Revenue growth near 20% with a backlog that stays above $8 billion passes; slower growth or a smaller backlog fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 22%, the backlog reached a record $8.2 billion and Cadence raised its 2026 guidance.
Test: Mobility and broadband service revenue growth near 3% and positive postpaid phone net additions pass; slower service revenue growth or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Mobility and broadband service revenue rose 2.9%, postpaid phone net additions were 406,000 and Verizon raised its 2026 guidance for the third time.
Test: Core FFO per share within the $2.23 to $2.33 guidance and MH same property NOI growth of 6% or more pass; a cut to the 2026 guidance or a larger fall in RV fails.
Outcome: Core FFO of $2.35 per share beat the guidance and MH same property NOI rose 6.9%, but RV same property NOI fell 1.3%, more than in Q2, and Sun cut its RV NOI guidance.
Test: Same store revenue near flat or better and Core FFO on track for the $16.75 to $17.05 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Same store revenue rose 0.5%, Core FFO was $4.34 per share and Public Storage raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $16.90 to $17.10 per share.
Test: FDA approval on time passes; a rejection or a long delay fails.
Outcome: The FDA approved bepirovirsen as Hibsago on October 20, 2026, six days before the target date.
Test: Closing in the second half of 2026 with the cash used to repay term loans passes; a delay into 2027 or a lower price fails.
Outcome: Gildan completed the sale on October 26, 2026, for about A$700 million in cash, and it said that it will use the net proceeds to repay debt.
Test: US approval by October 26, 2026 passes; a rejection or a delay fails.
Outcome: The FDA approved Hibsago (bepirovirsen) on October 20, 2026, before the target date.
Test: Sequential growth in the Middle East and higher EPS excluding charges and credits pass; a further fall fails.
Outcome: Middle East revenue grew 13% from Q2, and EPS excluding charges and credits rose 16% from Q2 to $0.64.
Test: Free cash flow growth on lower capital spending, the 2026 guidance kept and stable mobile phone ARPU pass; a cut to guidance or a further large fall in ARPU fails.
Outcome: Free cash flow rose 65% and Rogers kept its 2026 guidance, but mobile phone ARPU fell 2.6%, a larger fall than in Q2 2026, and wireless service revenue fell 1%.
Test: The deal closes in Q1 2027 on the agreed terms and leverage stays near 2.4 times pass; a delay, new conditions or a rating downgrade fail.
Outcome: The deal closed on October 23, 2026, earlier than planned, on the agreed terms, and CRH said that it expects to keep a strong investment grade rating.
Test: Revenue growth guidance of 1.5% to 3.0% kept or raised, an operating margin within 20% to 22% and strong large deal wins pass; another guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Infosys cut its fiscal 2027 revenue growth guidance again, to 1% to 2%, although the operating margin was 21.0% and large deal wins were $5.2 billion.
Test: Revenue that grows faster than vehicle production and a full-year outlook kept at $2.65 billion to $2.75 billion pass; a cut to the 2026 or 2027 revenue guidance fails.
Outcome: Net sales fell 1% while global production fell about 2%, but Gentex cut its 2026 revenue guidance to about $2.65 billion and its gross margin guidance to 34.0% to 34.5%.
Test: A win on appeal, or a settlement with small costs, passes; a ruling that forces the $2.35 billion purchase with large damages or a long FTC fight fails.
Outcome: The Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the Chancery Court ruling, so Verisk must work to get FTC approval and the $2.35 billion purchase can still go ahead.
Test: Revenue growth near 10% with expense growth at or below it and the 2026 EPS guidance kept passes; expenses that again grow faster than revenue or a cut to guidance fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 9% and total expenses grew 9%, helped by the GBTG gain, and the company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $17.60 to $17.90 adjusted.
Test: Network Infrastructure growth of 10% or more at constant currency with a higher comparable operating margin than last year passes; lower growth or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Network Infrastructure grew 15% at constant currency, and the comparable operating margin rose by 220 basis points to 11.7%.
Test: Organic revenue growth of 5% or more and a raised 2026 adjusted DEPS outlook pass; slower growth or a cut outlook fail.
Outcome: Organic growth was 7%, adjusted DEPS rose 15% to $5.89, and 2026 guidance rose to $22.35 to $22.40.
Test: Revenue growth above 100% and a non-GAAP gross margin near 34% pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 138.1%, the non-GAAP gross margin was 34.5%, and Bloom raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion.
Test: Product net sales growth of 40% or more passes; slower growth fails.
Outcome: Product net sales rose 54% to $1,721 million.
Test: Solutions revenue growth of 10% or more and a non-GAAP operating margin of 55% or more pass; lower growth or margin fails.
Outcome: Solutions revenue rose 17%, and the non-GAAP operating margin was 57%.
Test: Organic sales growth of 5% or more and a higher segment margin pass; organic growth below 3% fails.
Outcome: Organic sales rose 7%, and the segment margin rose to 21.3% from 17.6%.
Test: Revenue and non-GAAP EPS above the guidance of $4.1 billion and $4.00 pass; results below guidance or a lower gross margin fail.
Outcome: Revenue of $4.38 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $4.64 beat the guidance, the non-GAAP gross margin rose to 58.1% and the Q2 guidance was higher again.
Test: Adjusted EPS within the $1.73 to $1.79 guidance and organic revenue growth of 6% or more pass; slower organic growth or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS of $1.78 was within the guidance and the margin rose to 39.9%, but adjusted organic revenue growth slowed to 5.2%, below the 6% test.
Test: Occupancy in line with the 76.5% to 78.0% average for 2026 and unchanged guidance pass; lower occupancy or a cut to guidance fails.
Outcome: Kilroy now expects average 2026 occupancy of 77.0% to 77.5%, within the earlier range, and it narrowed its guidance to $3.55 to $3.59 with the same midpoint.
Test: A net interest margin in the low 3.20s, net charge-offs within 0.25% to 0.35% and a 2026 outlook kept at the September levels pass; a lower margin or another cut fails.
Outcome: The net interest margin rose to 3.25%, net charge-offs were 0.31% of loans, and management kept the 2026 outlook and the 2027 target on the call.
Test: Sales up from Q2 as awarded projects ramp and a gross margin within 39% to 42% pass; another fall in utility water sales fails.
Outcome: Sales rose 6% from Q2 to $235.9 million and the gross margin was 41.9%, but utility water sales without UDlive were still 3% lower than a year earlier.
Test: North America Pest Control Services organic growth near or above the 2.6% of H1 2026 and a full-year profit outlook in line with expectations pass; slower growth or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: North America Pest Control Services organic growth was 2.4%, near the 2.6% of H1 2026, and Rentokil kept its full-year profit outlook in line with market expectations.
Test: Positive organic growth in Core Operations and a higher adjusted EBITA margin than a year earlier pass; a fall in organic revenue fails.
Outcome: Organic growth in Core Operations was 7.2%, and the adjusted EBITA margin rose to 18.2% from 16.2%.
Test: US broadband losses below the 140,000 that KeyBanc expects, with wireless additions near 400,000 or more, pass; larger broadband losses or a faster fall in broadband revenue fail.
Outcome: Comcast lost 144,000 US broadband customers, more than the 140,000 that KeyBanc expected, and added only 368,000 wireless lines.
Test: Positive comparable store sales with more transactions and a kept 2026 outlook pass; a further cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Comparable store sales grew 0.4% and the 2026 outlook stayed the same, but transactions fell 0.3%, and the test asked for more transactions.
Test: Group sales growth in the mid single digits at constant rates and a confirmed 2026 outlook pass; slower growth or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Nine-month sales grew 6% at constant rates, third-quarter sales grew 7%, and Roche confirmed its 2026 outlook.
Test: RIG at or above the 1.8% of Q2 2026 and organic growth for 2026 still in the 3% to 4% range pass; lower RIG, a cut to guidance or a large Russia charge fails.
Outcome: Q3 2026 RIG rose to 2.8% and Nestlé kept its guidance, but the exit from Russia brought a non-cash charge of about CHF 1.4 billion, which the test counts as a fail.
Test: No new large program loss and 2026 free cash flow guidance of at least $7.0 billion pass; a new reach-forward loss or a cut to the cash guidance fails.
Outcome: Lockheed Martin reported no new reach-forward loss, only smaller charges, and raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion.
Test: A pass is inflows near Q2's $68.3 billion and fee related earnings growth near 20%; a fail is a clear drop in inflows or rising credit losses.
Outcome: Inflows held at $63.3 billion, but fee related earnings grew only 6% and distributable earnings per share fell 13% on lower realizations.
Test: An adjusted operating margin above the Q3 2025 level, Americas organic growth with positive volume, and unchanged 2026 guidance pass; a lower margin or a cut to the guidance fails.
Outcome: The adjusted operating margin rose to 24.7% from 24.1%, Americas non-residential grew from volume and price, and Allegion raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.05 to $9.10.
Test: Legal and STM growth at or above the first-half pace and the full-year outlook kept pass; slower Legal or STM growth or a weaker outlook fails.
Outcome: Legal grew 10% and STM 6% in the first nine months, the same pace as in the first half, and RELX kept its full-year outlook.
Test: Flat or positive organic volume, a core EPS decline no worse than the 5% or more that P&G guided, and an unchanged $6.89 to $7.11 fiscal 2027 range pass; a guidance cut or a volume decline fails.
Outcome: Organic volume grew about 2%, core EPS rose 1% instead of the guided fall of 5% or more, and P&G kept the $6.89 to $7.11 range.
Test: Kept 2026 and 2027 guidance and a funded capital plan without new equity passes; a guidance cut or a plan to issue equity fails.
Outcome: PG&E reaffirmed 2026 and 2027 core EPS guidance and said it does not expect to issue equity through 2030.
Test: Sales growth from maintenance products, a gross margin in line with the 2026 guidance of about 29.4% and confirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 pass; lower sales or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Net sales rose 4% with solid maintenance growth and the 2026 guidance stayed the same, but gross margin fell to 29.0%, below the 29.4% that the test asked for.
Test: A higher adjusted operating margin with unchanged or higher 2026 guidance passes; a cut fails.
Outcome: The adjusted operating margin rose 1.9 points to 22.9%, and Wabtec raised its adjusted EPS guidance to $10.85 to $11.05.
Test: An adjusted EBITDA margin of 33% or more with an unchanged or higher 2026 outlook passes; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: The margin was 34.0%, solid waste volumes improved from Q2, and the 2026 outlook rose for the second time.
Test: Rental revenue growth of 10% or more and a confirmed or higher 2026 guidance pass; a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Rental revenue rose 17.8%, and the company raised its 2026 guidance for the third time.
Test: Adjusted EPS growth of 10% or more and a larger project backlog pass; lower Adjusted EPS fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose 21% to $0.35, and the backlog rose to $14.4 billion.
Test: Service revenue growth and lower net debt pass; lower growth or higher debt fail.
Outcome: Service revenue rose 7.2%, EBITDA rose 8.9% and net debt fell to 1.21 times EBITDAaL.
Test: A higher operating margin than a year earlier and volume growth pass; a lower margin or falling volume fail.
Outcome: The operating margin rose to 39.1% from an adjusted 34.9%, volume rose 5% and EPS rose to $0.57.
Test: Revenue and adjusted EPS above Q3 2025 with strong volume pass; lower revenue or lower volume fail.
Outcome: Revenue rose 13% to $1.74 billion and adjusted diluted EPS rose to $3.02 from $2.68, with record third-quarter volume of 29.4 million contracts a day.
Test: A lower benefit expense ratio than a year earlier and kept or raised 2026 guidance pass; a higher ratio or lower guidance fail.
Outcome: The benefit expense ratio improved 70 basis points to 90.6%, and Elevance raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $29.00.
Test: U.S. RevPAR growth near 2% and the 2026 outlook kept or raised pass; a fall in U.S. RevPAR or a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: U.S. RevPAR rose 6%, and Wyndham raised its 2026 outlook to adjusted EBITDA of $740 million to $745 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.84 to $4.92.
Test: Higher adjusted EBITDA margin than the 20.2% of Q2 2026 and continued positive adjusted free cash flow pass; a lower margin or a further cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 22.2%, adjusted free cash flow was $155 million, and Weatherford raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance again.
Test: Adjusted EPS growth of 8% or more and progress toward an FPL large-load contract pass; slower EPS growth or no progress on large loads fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose 9.7% and NextEra Energy Resources signed agreements for about 16.5 gigawatts of federal hub projects, but the release reported no FPL large-load contract yet.
Test: Macao adjusted property EBITDA back above $500 million with Marina Bay Sands near $700 million passes; another quarter near or below $430 million in Macao fails.
Outcome: Macao adjusted property EBITDA rose to $529 million, but Marina Bay Sands fell to $590 million, well below $700 million, so both conditions were not met.
Test: Organic growth near 6%, residential leads that stop falling, and a margin near the Q3 2025 level pass; organic growth well below 6% or a lower 2026 framework fails.
Outcome: Organic growth slowed to 4.4%, well below 6%, and the operating margin fell to 20.5% from 21.9%.
Test: MA ARR growth of about 9% or more and MIS revenue that still grows from a year earlier pass; MA ARR growth below 8% or a fall in MIS revenue fails.
Outcome: MA ARR grew 8%, and MIS revenue fell 1% from a record Q3 2025 as high-yield and leveraged loan issuance fell.
Test: A pass is core revenue growth at or above the guided 2% to 3% with bioprocessing revenue growth; a fail is core growth below 2% or a lower 2026 guidance.
Outcome: Core revenue grew 3.0% and bioprocessing grew, but Danaher lowered its 2026 core growth outlook to about 2.5% from 3% to 4%, while it raised its adjusted EPS guidance.
Test: Ad revenue growth above cost growth, first Meta One revenue and operating cash flow minus capital spending above the Q2 level pass (the expected legal charge of about $10 billion lowers profit, not this measure); free cash flow near zero again or a higher capex guide fails.
Outcome: Revenue grew 26%, but costs without the legal charge grew about 36%, free cash flow fell to negative $2.12 billion from $784 million in Q2, Meta gave no Meta One revenue and it raised the low end of its 2026 capex guide to $135 billion.
Test: A penalty of a few billion dollars or less passes; a penalty near the $35-40 billion the state asks for fails.
Outcome: On October 21, 2026, the court set a civil penalty of $25 billion with 15% interest after judgment, far above a few billion dollars, and Meta will appeal.
Test: Cloud revenue growth near 24% at constant currency and current cloud backlog growth near 25% or more pass; a clear slowdown in backlog growth or lower cloud guidance fails.
Outcome: Cloud revenue grew 25% and the current cloud backlog grew 26%, both at constant currency, and SAP moved its 2026 cloud revenue outlook to the upper end of its range.
Test: Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth of 8% or more with a Retention Rate of 94% or more passes; lower growth or retention fails.
Outcome: Organic recurring subscription Run Rate growth was 8.7%, and the Retention Rate was 95.0%.
Test: A GM North America EBIT-adjusted margin near 8% or more passes; a lower 2026 guidance fails.
Outcome: The GM North America margin was 8.7%, and GM narrowed its 2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance to $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion.
Test: Adjusted organic growth near 3% or more, a higher adjusted margin and higher guidance pass; lower guidance fails.
Outcome: Adjusted organic sales rose 3.3%, the adjusted operating margin rose to 26.2% and 3M raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.10 to $9.15.
Test: A stable or lower net charge-off rate and faster loan receivables growth pass; a rise in delinquencies or a reserve build fails.
Outcome: The net charge-off rate fell to 4.79% and loan growth rose to 3%, but Synchrony built its reserve by $30 million, which this test counts as a fail, although the allowance fell to 10.01% of loans.
Test: A net interest margin above 2.89% with the 3.00% to 3.05% exit rate kept and net charge-offs within 0.40% to 0.45% pass; a flat margin or a lower exit rate fails.
Outcome: The Q3 2026 margin rose to 2.95% and net charge-offs fell to 0.32%, and KeyCorp kept an exit margin of about 3.00%, the low end of its earlier range.
Test: Normalized FFO of $0.76 to $0.82 per share and RV and marina rent growth inside the 1.4% to 2.0% Q3 guidance pass; results below the guidance or lower full-year guidance fail.
Outcome: Normalized FFO was $0.79 per share, RV and marina rent grew 2.1% and the FFO guidance midpoint stayed at $3.18, but ELS cut its full-year RV and marina rent growth guidance to 1.2% from 1.6%.
Test: Revenue of $1.68 to $1.71 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.25 and stable Workforce Solutions margins pass; results below the guidance or lower 2026 guidance fail.
Outcome: Revenue of $1,692.5 million and adjusted EPS of $2.26 met the guidance, but Equifax reduced its 2026 revenue guidance because of a weaker US mortgage market.
Test: A retail auto net charge-off rate within the 1.8% to 2.0% guidance and a net interest margin excluding OID of 3.60% or more pass; higher losses or a lower margin fail.
Outcome: The retail auto net charge-off rate was 1.89% and the net interest margin excluding OID was 3.66%, and Ally kept its loss guidance.
Test: Organic sales growth near the 8% to 9% outlook, free cash flow on track for $8.50 to $8.75 billion and a higher defense backlog pass; a lower outlook or a new GTF charge fails.
Outcome: Organic sales grew 12%, defense backlog rose to $164 billion, and RTX raised its 2026 outlook, including free cash flow to $9.0 to $9.2 billion.
Test: Segment margin near 11% with no new large charge on a fixed-price program, and 2026 guidance kept or raised, pass; new charges or lower cash flow guidance fail.
Outcome: Segment margin was 12.1% with no new large charge, and Northrop raised its 2026 segment operating income and EPS guidance and kept its free cash flow guidance.
Test: FAA certification of the 737-10 by the end of 2026, which keeps first delivery in 2027, passes; a new delay into 2027 fails.
Outcome: The FAA certified the 737-10 on October 20, 2026.
Test: Adjusted EPS above Q2 with net charge-offs of 0.40% or less passes; lower adjusted EPS or higher losses fail.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose to $1.13 from $1.02, net charge-offs were 0.31%, and the systems conversion of Comerica was complete.
Test: Closing by the end of 2026 with all approvals passes; a delay past January 6, 2027 that forces the redemption of the 2032 notes fails.
Outcome: Group 1 completed the Hennessy purchase on October 19, 2026, for about $1.3 billion.
Test: Closing by the end of calendar 2026 with a clear integration plan passes; a delay fails.
Outcome: The deal closed on October 16, 2026, ahead of the year-end target, and ACV runs as an independent subsidiary under its existing leadership.
Test: Revenue and EPS growth with a return on tangible common equity near 30% pass; a fall in net interest income with lower returns fails.
Outcome: Revenue rose 12%, EPS rose 24% and return on tangible common equity was 29.0%, although net interest income fell 2% from Q2.
Test: Net interest margin at or above the Q2 level of 3.00% and more core net new assets than a year earlier pass; a lower margin or client cash leaving sweep accounts fails.
Outcome: Net interest margin rose to 3.04%, core net new assets rose 38% to a record $190.4 billion, and total sweep cash grew $7.1 billion, although only because of cash tied to client long/short strategies.
Test: Revenue that meets the more than 40% 2026 growth target with stable gross margin passes; a lower growth target or margin pressure from overseas fabs fails.
Outcome: Revenue growth beat the target, which management raised to about 44%, but gross margin fell to 66.4% from 67.7% in Q2 and the Q4 guide is lower again, partly because of overseas fab costs, so the margin was not stable.
Test: Copart accepts the tendered shares and the deal closes passes; another extension or a failed offer fails.
Outcome: About 68.43% of ACV shares were tendered, Copart accepted them, and the merger closed on October 16, 2026.
Test: A pre-tax margin near 35% and operating leverage of 500 basis points or more pass; a lower margin or less leverage fails.
Outcome: The pre-tax margin was 34.6%, and operating leverage was 531 basis points.
Test: A medical care ratio below the year-earlier 89.9% and in line with the full-year guide of about 88.1%, without large favorable reserve changes, and confirmed or raised guidance pass; a ratio above the guide or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: The ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9% and management raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50, but the ratio was above the guide of about 88.1% and $610 million of favorable reserve changes helped the quarter.
Test: The waiting period ends without a second request from regulators passes; a second request, which delays closing into 2027, fails.
Outcome: The waiting period ended at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 13, 2026, without a second request from regulators.
Test: Adjusted EPS in line with a year earlier and a kept 2026 outlook pass; a lower 2026 EPS outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS was $1.72, against $1.70 a year earlier, but Delta lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 because of higher fuel costs.
Test: Growth in adjusted operating profit at constant rates with the FY 26/27 outlook kept or raised passes; a cut to the outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted operating profit rose 6.3% at constant rates to £1,783 million, and Tesco raised the low end of its outlook to £3.15 billion.
Test: Flat or positive North America volume and core operating margin up year over year pass; another volume drop in snacks and drinks with margin down fails.
Outcome: Snack volume grew 0.5%, but beverage organic volume fell 3%, core operating margin fell 35 basis points, and PepsiCo cut its 2026 EPS growth guidance to 1% to 2%.
Test: A majority of ACV shares tendered by 5:00 p.m. ET passes; another extension because fewer than half of shares are tendered fails or delays the deal.
Outcome: 52.84% of ACV shares were tendered, and Copart extended the offer to October 15 only to wait for the end of the antitrust waiting period.
Test: Clear multi-year custom revenue targets with named program ramps pass; vague targets or a lower fiscal 2028 outlook fail.
Outcome: Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and its fiscal 2029 custom revenue outlook to more than $12 billion.
Test: The $3.8 billion purchase closes between October and December 2026 with no large change to the terms passes; a block by regulators or a long delay fails.
Outcome: P&G completed the purchase on October 1, 2026, for $3.9 billion in cash.
Test: Organic growth near 8% or more with a higher operating margin passes; slower growth or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Organic growth was 8.9%, the operating margin reached a record 23.6% and Cintas raised its fiscal 2027 guidance.
Test: Closing new long-term notes to redeem the $880 million 2027 notes passes; a failed offering fails.
Outcome: WRF closed $900 million of 6.875% notes due 2035 to redeem the 5.25% notes due 2027, at a higher interest rate.
Test: Sales growth near or above 5% with a lasting gross margin gain passes; slower sales or a margin gain from one-time items only fails.
Outcome: Net sales rose 5.6%, but tariff refunds and a LIFO gain caused all of the 1.82-point gross margin gain, and domestic same-store sales grew only 1.6%.
Test: A new CANDU new-build or life extension contract in Canada, Romania or another country by mid-2027 passes; no new large nuclear award and a falling Nuclear backlog fail.
Outcome: In September 2026, a joint venture of Candu Energy and Aecon won a contract of about $1.7 billion for the Pickering Unit 5 refurbishment.
Test: Plan value above the path set in 2025 with the 2030 target date kept passes; a lower value or a later target date fails.
Outcome: Plan value was about $67 per share, down from $68, and the $140 target date moved from 2030 to 2031.
Test: Canadian comparable store sales growth of 4.0% or more passes; growth below 3.0% fails.
Outcome: Canadian comparable store sales rose 5.4%, and Dollarama raised its fiscal 2027 range to 4.0% to 4.5%.
Test: Kroger keeps its 2026 adjusted EPS range of $5.10 to $5.30 passes; a cut fails.
Outcome: Kroger kept the range. Adjusted EPS rose to $1.09 from $1.04.
Test: Results above the outlook range and a higher fiscal 2026 outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.11, above the outlook of $0.88 to $0.93, and HPE raised its fiscal 2026 and 2027 outlook.
Test: Product revenue growth above the guidance and a higher full-year outlook pass; slower growth or a lower outlook fail.
Outcome: Product revenue grew 37% to $1.49 billion and the company raised its fiscal 2027 product revenue and margin guidance.
Test: Closing of both Pizza Hut sales with about $2.3 billion of net proceeds passes; a failed or delayed closing fails.
Outcome: Yum completed the sale on September 1, 2026, after the Yum China part closed on August 7, for $2.7 billion in total plus an earn-out of up to $75 million.
Test: A passed bill that caps liability or speeds victim payments passes; a session end with no bill fails.
Outcome: The Assembly adjourned on September 1 without a vote on SB 492, and PG&E stock fell about 20% on August 31.
Test: Raised subscription guidance and a non-GAAP operating margin near 30% pass; a cut fails.
Outcome: Subscription revenue grew 13.9%, guidance rose to $9.940 billion to $9.950 billion and the margin guidance rose to 31.0%.
Test: Adjusted ROE near 16% and a stable loan loss ratio pass; lower returns or a large rise in provisions fail.
Outcome: Adjusted ROE rose to 16.8% and adjusted diluted EPS grew 26% to $2.73, while the loan loss ratio rose to 0.40% from 0.33% a year earlier.
Test: FDA approval for previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer passes; a refusal or a delay fails.
Outcome: The FDA approved RASONQUE on August 26, 2026, and the company launched it at once.
Test: Revenue at or above guidance and more top 20 Vault CRM commitments pass; a miss or lost large customers fail.
Outcome: Revenue rose 18% and beat guidance, and top 20 commitments to Vault CRM rose to 12.
Test: Core revenue growth of 5% or more with a higher operating margin passes; lower growth or a lower margin fails.
Outcome: Core revenue grew 7.3%, the non-GAAP operating margin rose to 28.3%, and Agilent raised its full-year guidance.
Test: Completion at the agreed price with proceeds used for AI infrastructure passes; a failed or repriced placement fails.
Outcome: Alibaba completed the placement of 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 on August 26, 2026.
Test: Comparable store sales growth above the plan, driven by traffic, passes; a slowdown fails.
Outcome: Comparable store sales rose 10%, mainly from customer traffic, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance.
Test: Orders above revenue with revenue growth of 30% or more passes; falling orders fail.
Outcome: Orders rose 56% to $2,091 million against revenue of $1,846 million, up 36%.
Test: Adjusted net income near a quarter of the ¥950.0 billion forecast and a kept forecast pass; a lower forecast fails.
Outcome: Adjusted net income was ¥261.3 billion, 28% of the forecast, and the company kept its full-year forecast, although profit in Japan fell 15%.
Test: Closing with the bridge loan in place and no change to capital returns passes; a failed closing fails.
Outcome: Yum China completed the $1.2 billion purchase on August 7, 2026, with a renminbi bridge loan at about 2%.
Test: Recurring revenue growth near 8% and closed sales inside or above the cut $240 to $290 million range pass; lower growth or weaker bookings fail.
Outcome: Recurring revenue grew 8% in constant currency, closed sales reached $305 million, and FY2027 guidance called for 6% to 8% recurring revenue growth.
Test: Adjusted EPS growth of 8% or more and a kept outlook pass; a lower outlook fails.
Outcome: Adjusted EPS rose 11.9% to C$0.66, and Loblaw kept its 2026 outlook.
Test: Higher underlying EBITDA and lower net debt pass; lower EBITDA or higher net debt fails.
Outcome: Underlying EBITDA from continuing operations rose 35% to $4,002 million, and net debt fell to $8.2 billion.
Test: Profit on track for the fiscal 2026 target of ¥1,300.0 billion and continued buybacks pass; lower profit or a lower target fail.
Outcome: Profit rose 45.5% to ¥422.9 billion, and Mizuho raised its fiscal 2026 target to ¥1,400.0 billion and its buyback to up to ¥200.0 billion.
Test: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails.
Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged.