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PAYPDigital payments & financial services

PayPay

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$14.92
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Pick status
Top pick
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 3 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$10B
Shares of Mar 31, 2026
Average volume
639K
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
PayPay is a new listing that SoftBank controls and it cut its point rewards, so steady user growth and the raised profit guidance must hold over the next year to close the gap.
Gap
Can close. Quarterly reports show whether users, GMV and profits keep growing after the cuts to point rewards, but SoftBank's control can keep part of the gap.

Company guidance: Total Revenue of ¥474 to ¥478 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of ¥159 to ¥163 billion for FY ending March 2027 (, Q2 FY2026 earnings release (6-K))

Price history

About

PayPay runs the largest QR-code payment app in Japan. In September 2026, it had 75.6 million registered users and 42.2 million users who paid at least once a month. It reports two segments. The Payment segment includes the PayPay app and PayPay Card, and it earns fees from merchants, credit card fees, and interest on revolving and installment balances.

The Financial Service segment includes PayPay Bank and PayPay Securities, and it earns interest on loans and securities and fees from trading. PayPay gives points to users to make them pay more often and use its other services. SoftBank Corp. and other SoftBank Group companies control PayPay. Its American depositary shares (ADSs) started to trade on the Nasdaq on March 12, 2026, and it reports under IFRS in yen.

Thesis

The market prices PayPay as a new listing with risks that it does not yet trust. The ADSs started to trade only in March 2026, so PayPay has a short record as a listed company. SoftBank Group companies control PayPay, so outside owners have little say, and related-party deals and promotions with SoftBank companies are a large part of the business. In June 2026, PayPay also cut its point rewards, and investors fear that users can move to other payment apps.

Its new plans, a ¥132 billion purchase of a life insurer and a ¥100 billion stake in Seven & i, add risk that is new to the business. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Monthly transacting users and GMV must keep growing at double-digit rates after the cuts to point rewards. PayPay must meet its guidance for the year to March 2027, which it raised again on November 3, 2026, to total revenue of ¥474 billion to ¥478 billion and adjusted EBITDA of ¥159 billion to ¥163 billion.

Loan losses in the card and bank businesses must stay under control as balances grow. The Q2 report met the first test: users grew 9% and GMV grew 20% after the point changes. The Q3 report in February 2027 gives the next test, and the T&D Financial Life purchase is due to close on October 1, 2027. If growth holds, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters, but SoftBank's control can keep a part of it.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 3, 2026Passed
    Q2 results: users and GMV after the point changesTotal revenue within the ¥114 billion to ¥116 billion guidance and monthly transacting users above a year earlier pass; a fall in users or revenue below the guidance fails.Outcome: Total revenue was ¥118.1 billion, above the guidance, and monthly transacting users rose 9% to 42.2 million.
  2. Feb 3, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q3 results: full-year guidanceResults that keep PayPay on track for its raised full-year guidance pass; a cut to the guidance or a large rise in loan losses fails.
  3. Oct 1, 2027 · est.Pending
    T&D Financial Life purchase closingClosing with the regulatory approvals and at about the planned price passes; a delay or a higher price fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 3, 2026PayPay reported Q2 results for the year to March 2027. Total revenue rose 28% to ¥118.1 billion, above its guidance of ¥114 billion to ¥116 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 55% to ¥42.1 billion, a 36% margin. Profit fell 75% to ¥18.4 billion because the year-earlier quarter had a one-time tax benefit of ¥57.5 billion. GMV in the Payment segment rose 20% to ¥5.56 trillion, and monthly transacting users rose 9% to 42.2 million. PayPay raised its full-year guidance to total revenue of ¥474 billion to ¥478 billion and adjusted EBITDA of ¥159 billion to ¥163 billion.
  • July 31, 2026PayPay agreed to a business and capital alliance with Seven & i Holdings, SoftBank Corp. and LY Corporation. PayPay will buy 48.3 million Seven & i shares, 2.13% of the company, for about ¥100 billion, and SoftBank will buy the same number. The partners plan to link the 7iD into PayPay's ID platform and bring PayPay Points to Seven-Eleven stores.
  • July 30, 2026PayPay reported Q1 results for the year to March 2027. Total revenue rose 27% to ¥109.8 billion, and profit rose 83% to ¥19.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 59% to ¥37.4 billion, a 34% margin. GMV in the Payment segment rose 23% to ¥5.39 trillion, and monthly transacting users rose 10% to 41.7 million. PayPay raised its full-year guidance to total revenue of ¥465 billion to ¥473 billion and adjusted EBITDA of ¥149 billion to ¥155 billion.
Show 3 older events
  • June 4, 2026PayPay agreed to buy 70.2% of T&D Financial Life Insurance from T&D Holdings for about ¥132 billion in cash. The deal is due to close on October 1, 2027, after regulatory approvals.
  • June 2, 2026PayPay changed its point rewards. Users must now verify their identity to earn points, payments made with points no longer earn points, and a usage benefit replaced the extra points for PayPay Card Gold. PayPay said that the effect on users and GMV was within its expectations and that the change improved profit by ¥1 billion in June.
  • May 6, 2026PayPay reported results for the year to March 2026. Profit rose 201% to ¥117.8 billion, total revenue grew 27%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 29%. It first guided total revenue of ¥454 billion to ¥462 billion for the year to March 2027.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 3, 2026
Next earnings
Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · payp-20260331

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 2080845)

Risks

  • SoftBank Group companies control PayPay, and PayPay depends on them for promotions, services, licenses and part of its borrowings. Their interests can differ from those of outside owners, and a large sale of shares by them can push the price down.
  • Point rewards bring users to the app. PayPay cut them in June 2026, and other Japanese payment apps can offer more points to win users and merchants.
  • The card and bank loans grow fast, and the provision for loan losses rose to ¥9.4 billion in Q2 from ¥6.1 billion a year earlier. Higher interest rates and credit costs raised transaction costs to 24% of revenue in Q2, from 22%. A weaker Japanese economy can raise loan losses further.
  • The life insurer purchase and the Seven & i stake are large new investments. They need regulatory approvals and integration work, and they add exposure to interest rates and stock prices.
  • PayPay earns in yen, but its ADSs trade in US dollars. A weaker yen lowers the dollar value of its results.

Balance sheet

Cash
¥570.1B
Debt
¥861.7B
Net debt
¥291.6B

Cash against debt

Cash¥570.1B
Debt¥861.7B

debt covered by cashnet debt ¥291.6B

PayPay's balance sheet is mostly that of its bank and card businesses. At September 30, 2026, total assets were ¥5.73 trillion.

Dividends

PayPay does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.

Questions about PayPay

What does PayPay do?

PayPay runs the largest QR-code payment app in Japan. In September 2026, it had 75.6 million registered users and 42.2 million users who paid at least once a month. Its market cap is $10B at the current price of $14.92.

When does PayPay report earnings next?

This is an estimate: PayPay may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on November 3, 2026.

Is PayPay stock below its intrinsic value?

PayPay stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at PayPay?

The latest update is from November 3, 2026. PayPay reported Q2 results for the year to March 2027.

What are the main risks for PayPay?

SoftBank Group companies control PayPay, and PayPay depends on them for promotions, services, licenses and part of its borrowings. Point rewards bring users to the app. The card and bank loans grow fast, and the provision for loan losses rose to ¥9.4 billion in Q2 from ¥6.1 billion a year earlier.

How much debt and cash does PayPay have?

At September 30, 2026, PayPay had ¥861.7B of debt and ¥570.1B of cash.

Does PayPay pay a dividend?

No. PayPay does not pay a dividend.

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