OVVOil & gas exploration and production

Ovintiv

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

By Kevin Amado

Updated yesterday · Nov 12

Price: $63.47
Analysts view: Bullish
Discount category: Below intrinsic value
Pick status: Top pick
Next earnings: Earnings Feb 3 · in 2 months · estimated

History

Market cap: $17B; Shares of Oct 23, 2026
Yield at current rate: 1.9%; Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield: 1.9%; Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing): 12.7; Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing): $5.01; 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range: $36.81 – $73.62; To Nov 12, 2026
Beta: 0.58; Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume: 3.3M; 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis: The market prices Ovintiv for the risk of lower oil prices and weak Canadian gas prices, and steady production with higher shareholder returns over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.
Gap: Can close. The Logan purchase early in 2027 and the 2027 plan in February 2027 show whether Ovintiv keeps its production, its debt level and its shareholder returns.

Company guidance: Production of 630 to 645 MBOE/d and capital investment of $2.25 billion to $2.35 billion for 2026 (November 3, 2026, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

Weekly closes, adjusted for splits. Log scale: the same distance is the same percent move.40-week avg (≈200-day) $57.33

About

Ovintiv produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas in two main areas: the Permian Basin in Texas and the Montney in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. It is based in Denver and its shares trade in New York and Toronto. Production averaged 631 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3 2026, with 204 thousand barrels per day of oil and condensate.

In 2026, Ovintiv bought NuVista Energy, a Montney producer, for about $2.8 billion in cash and shares, and it sold its Anadarko assets in Oklahoma for $3.0 billion. In October 2026, it agreed to buy Logan Energy, another Montney producer, for about $890 million in cash, including debt. It returns 50% to 100% of its annual free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Thesis

The market prices Ovintiv for the risk of lower oil prices and for weak Canadian natural gas prices. Its realized oil and condensate price before hedges was $97.50 per barrel in Q2 2026 and $84.89 in Q3 2026, which is high by historical standards, so investors expect free cash flow to fall when oil prices fall. Its realized natural gas price was only 59% of the NYMEX price in Q2 2026 and 83% in Q3 2026, because most of its gas comes from the Montney in Canada. The large changes to the portfolio in 2026, the NuVista purchase, the Anadarko sale and the planned Logan purchase, also make the results harder to compare.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Ovintiv must meet its 2026 guidance of 630 to 645 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for capital of $2.25 billion to $2.35 billion. It must return more than 60% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholders, as it expects, and keep net debt near 0.7 times adjusted EBITDA after it pays for Logan. Its new drilling locations in the Permian and the Montney must keep its well costs low and its inventory deep.

The Logan purchase is expected to close early in Q1 2027. The 2027 capital plan, expected with the Q4 2026 report in February 2027, shows the plan for next year. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a fall in oil prices, which Ovintiv cannot control.

Second opinion (AI estimate): intrinsic value of at least $34.

How the AI estimate was made

The intrinsic value for Ovintiv is an AI estimate from November 4, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Ovintiv's filings. The method is a multiple of mid-cycle Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow, less net debt. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 3, 2026) gives Non-GAAP Cash Flow of $1,243 million, capital expenditures of $563 million and Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow of $680 million in Q3. Production was 631 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and the realized oil and condensate price before hedges was $84.89 per barrel, 99% of WTI. The release keeps 2026 guidance of 630 to 645 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for capital of $2.25 to $2.35 billion. It gives long-term debt of $3,588 million and cash of $176 million on September 30, 2026, for net debt of $3,412 million. The Q3 2026 10-Q gives 268,708,063 shares outstanding on October 23, 2026. The planned Logan Energy purchase, about $890 million including debt, is expected to close early in Q1 2027. The estimate assumes that Logan adds value equal to its price, so it makes no adjustment for it. Oil prices in 2026 were high by historical standards, so the estimate uses mid-cycle levels. The estimate assumes Free Cash Flow of about $1.0 billion a year at WTI near $60, $1.4 billion near $70 and $2.0 billion near $80, after the same capital spending. The low case assumes $1.0 billion at 9 times, for $20.80 per share. The base case assumes $1.4 billion at 10 times, for $39.40 per share. The high case assumes $2.0 billion at 11 times, for $69.18 per share. The estimate assumes the oil prices, the Free Cash Flow levels and the multiples. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $42.20 per share. Since the last estimate of October 16, 2026, higher net debt after land purchases lowered the value, and fewer shares after buybacks raised it. Ovintiv sells oil and gas at market prices and cannot set its prices. Low well costs and a deep inventory of drilling locations in the Permian and the Montney give it some cost advantage against weaker producers, but many rivals drill in the same basins with similar costs. Switching costs, network effects and intangible assets do not apply to a commodity producer.

AI estimate of November 4, 2026. AI estimate: produced by an AI model from the company's filings and checked by Kevin. It is not an analyst's view.

Checkpoints

Nov 3, 2026Passed
Q3 2026 results: production and shareholder returnsProduction within the Q3 guidance of 615 to 640 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and higher buybacks pass; lower production or lower shareholder returns fail.Outcome: Production was 631 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and buybacks rose to $386 million from $345 million in Q2 2026.
Feb 3, 2027 · est.Pending
Q4 2026 results: 2027 capital planA 2027 plan with flat or lower capital and steady oil production passes; higher capital for the same production fails.
Q1 2027 · est.Pending
Logan Energy purchase closesA close early in Q1 2027 with net debt near 0.7 times adjusted EBITDA and no cut to buybacks passes; a delay or a cut to shareholder returns fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

November 3, 2026Ovintiv reported Q3 2026 results. Net earnings were $549 million, or $1.99 per share. Cash from operations was $1.1 billion and free cash flow was $680 million. Production of 631 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day was within guidance. Ovintiv returned $467 million, about 69% of free cash flow, with $386 million of buybacks and $81 million of dividends, and it kept its 2026 guidance. Net debt rose to $3.4 billion, or 0.7 times adjusted EBITDA, after $457 million of land purchases.
October 26, 2026Ovintiv agreed to buy Logan Energy for about $890 million in cash, including debt. The deal adds about 420 net well locations in the Montney and is expected to close early in Q1 2027.
October 1, 2026Ovintiv received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to renew its normal course issuer bid. It can buy back up to 26,973,037 shares from October 5, 2026 to October 4, 2027.

Show 5 older events

August 26, 2026Ovintiv said that it had made more than 60 small land deals in 2026 to add about 41,000 net acres in the Permian and the Montney for about $460 million. The deals add 240 net well locations, and with its own inventory work it added about 500 locations in 2026.
July 23, 2026Ovintiv reported Q2 2026 results. Net earnings were $456 million, or $1.62 per share, after a $337 million loss on the Anadarko sale. Cash from operations was $1.6 billion and free cash flow was $682 million. Production of 615 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day beat the high end of guidance. Ovintiv bought back $345 million of shares and raised its 2026 production guidance with no change to capital.
April 20, 2026Ovintiv redeemed all $700 million of its 5.650% notes due 2028. It expects interest savings of about $40 million a year.
April 9, 2026Ovintiv closed the sale of its Anadarko assets in Oklahoma for $3.0 billion in cash. It used the money to reduce debt, and the CEO said that the sale reached the company's debt target.
February 3, 2026Ovintiv completed the purchase of NuVista Energy, a Montney producer, in a cash and stock deal worth about $2.8 billion. It issued about 30.1 million shares and paid about $1.2 billion in cash.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings: November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings: Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 3, 2026 · ovv-20260930
8-KEarnings release and Other company newsFiled November 3, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled October 26, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
8-KInvestor disclosureFiled October 1, 2026 · ovv-20261001
8-KInvestor disclosureFiled August 27, 2026 · ovv-20260826
10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 23, 2026 · ovv-20260630
8-KEarnings release and Other company newsFiled July 23, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 11, 2026 · ovv-20260331
8-KEarnings release and Other company newsFiled May 11, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled May 8, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1792580)

Risks

Results depend on oil and natural gas prices, which Ovintiv cannot control. The realized oil and condensate price before hedges fell to $84.89 per barrel in Q3 2026 from $97.50 in Q2. A large fall in oil prices reduces free cash flow, share buybacks and the value of its reserves.
Most of Ovintiv's natural gas comes from Canada, where prices are low. Its realized gas price before hedges was 59% of NYMEX in Q2 2026 and 83% in Q3 2026. Pipeline limits or more supply can keep Canadian gas prices low. A third-party midstream outage in the Montney lowers Ovintiv's Q4 2026 guidance for Montney liquids.
Ovintiv must replace the oil and gas it produces. It depends on new drilling locations, small land deals and low well costs. Weaker wells or higher costs reduce returns.
Ovintiv operates in the United States and Canada. Changes in tariffs, trade rules or environmental rules in either country can increase costs or limit sales.

Balance sheet

Cash: $176M
Debt: $3.6B
Net debt: $3.4B
Net debt / EBITDA: 0.7×; as the company states it
Credit line: $3.5B; undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$176M

Debt$3.6B

debt covered by cashnet debt $3.4B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$0.0M

Later$3.6B

Ovintiv cut its debt in 2026 with the money from the Anadarko sale. Long-term debt was $3.59 billion at September 30, 2026, down from $5.20 billion at December 31, 2025, and no debt was due within one year.

As of September 30, 2026

Show 3 sources

Dividends

Yield at the current rate: 1.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield: 1.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $63.47)
Paid per share: $1.20 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate: $1.20 ($0.30 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio: 25% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date: September 15, 2026, $0.30 per share

Dividends per share by year

Ovintiv dividends per share by year
2016		$0.30
2017		$0.30
2018		$0.30
2019		$0.38
2020		$0.376
2021		$0.468
2022		$0.95
2023		$1.15
2024		$1.20
2025		$1.20

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 26.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 1.5% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Ovintiv

What does Ovintiv do?

Ovintiv produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas in two main areas: the Permian Basin in Texas and the Montney in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. It is based in Denver and its shares trade in New York and Toronto. Its market cap is $17B at the current price of $63.47.

When does Ovintiv report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Ovintiv may report on February 3, 2027. It last reported results on November 3, 2026.

Is Ovintiv stock below its intrinsic value?

Ovintiv stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Ovintiv?

The latest update is from November 3, 2026. Ovintiv reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Ovintiv?

Results depend on oil and natural gas prices, which Ovintiv cannot control. Most of Ovintiv's natural gas comes from Canada, where prices are low. Ovintiv must replace the oil and gas it produces.

How much debt and cash does Ovintiv have?

At September 30, 2026, Ovintiv had $3.6B of debt and $176M of cash.

Does Ovintiv pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Ovintiv is $1.20 per share. That is a dividend yield of 1.9% at the current price of $63.47. The latest ex-dividend date was September 15, 2026.

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