By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $12.25
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $49B
- Shares of Oct 26, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 4.9%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 4.9%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- -$1.98
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $11.11 – $17.78
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.89
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 44M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Ford for EV losses, tariffs, recalls and supply problems, and reaching its raised 2026 guidance with smaller EV losses in 2027 can close the gap over four to six quarters.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 show whether earnings hold after the EV and supply problems.
Company guidance: Adjusted EBIT of $10.5 billion to $11 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $6 billion to $7 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99))
Price history
About
Ford Motor designs, builds and sells cars, trucks, SUVs and vans under the Ford and Lincoln brands. It reports three automotive segments. Ford Blue sells gasoline and hybrid vehicles to consumers, such as the F-Series pickups, Bronco, Explorer and Mustang. Ford Pro sells vehicles, software and services to commercial customers, such as the Transit van and Super Duty trucks.
Ford Model e makes electric vehicles and develops software and the new Universal EV platform. Ford Credit finances vehicles for customers and dealers. Revenue was $141.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026. The F-Series has been the best-selling truck in the United States for 49 years, and Ford expects it to reach 50 years in 2026.
Thesis
The market prices Ford for low profit margins, large losses on electric vehicles and many outside shocks. Ford Model e expects a loss of about $4.0 billion in 2026, and Ford took a $3.6 billion charge in Q2 2026 to exit its battery joint venture with SK On. Fires at a Novelis aluminum plant cut truck production in late 2025 and early 2026, and tariffs and recall costs lowered profits in recent years. A supplier problem also stopped some F-150 production at the end of September 2026.
For the gap to close, three things must be true. Ford must reach its raised 2026 guidance of $10.5 billion to $11.0 billion of adjusted EBIT and $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Ford Pro must return to its usual margins, after its EBIT margin fell to 9.4% in Q3 2026 because of higher commodity costs and launch costs, and Ford Model e losses must continue to fall after the cancelled EV programs. Ford must also receive the tariff reimbursements it expects, including about $500 million in the second half of 2026.
The Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026, raised the low end of the adjusted EBIT guidance. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new large cost from recalls, tariffs or supply problems, like the costs that cut Ford's earnings in 2025.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026 · est.FailedQ3 2026 results: Ford Pro recovery and guidanceFord keeps or raises its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion and Ford Pro margins improve as aluminum supply recovers; a cut in guidance or a large new special charge fails.Outcome: Ford raised the low end of its adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.5 billion and had only $127 million of special items, but the Ford Pro EBIT margin fell to 9.4% from 11.4%, so the margin test failed.
- Jan 28, 2027 · est.Pending2027 guidance: EBIT and Model e losses2027 guidance for adjusted EBIT at or above the 2026 level with smaller Model e losses passes; lower EBIT guidance or larger EV losses fail.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026Ford reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue fell 2% to $49.5 billion, and net income was $2.0 billion. Adjusted EBIT rose to $2.7 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $4.7 billion. Ford Model e lost $1.1 billion, 25% less than a year earlier, and the Ford Pro EBIT margin fell to 9.4% from 11.4%. Ford raised the low end of its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.5 billion to $11.0 billion and kept its adjusted free cash flow guidance of $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion. It now expects Ford Blue EBIT of about $5.5 billion and Ford Pro EBIT of about $7 billion.
- October 2, 2026Ford reported Q3 2026 US sales. It estimated that its retail share rose about 0.4 percentage points to 12.1%, without the Escape and Corsair that it is phasing out. Super Duty production of 110,275 trucks was the best quarter in 19 years. Ford said that the cost of a short-term supplier problem that affected F-150 production at the end of September fits within its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance.
- July 28, 2026Ford reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue fell 4% to $48.3 billion, and the net loss was $1.3 billion because of $4.2 billion of special charges, including $3.6 billion for the exit from the BlueOval SK joint venture. Adjusted EBIT rose to $2.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $2.1 billion. Ford raised its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion and its adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- May 20, 2026Ford completed the exit from BlueOval SK, its battery joint venture with SK On. Ford's obligation to put up to $6.6 billion of capital into the venture ended. A Ford subsidiary took over the two Kentucky battery plants, and Ford assumed a $3.8 billion loan from the US Department of Energy at 4.814%, with a final maturity in 2040.
- April 15, 2026Ford extended its main credit facilities: $3.4 billion of commitments now mature in April 2029 and $10.1 billion in April 2031. Doug Field, Chief EV, Digital and Design Officer, decided to leave the company.
- March 16, 2026Ford settled the $2.3 billion principal of its 0.00% convertible notes in cash and issued 6.6 million shares for the rest of the conversion value. It started a buyback of up to 31.7 million shares to offset the dilution from the notes and from share-based pay.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · f-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosure and Other company newsFiled · f-20261002
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · f-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · f-20260702
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · f-20260520
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · f-20260514
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · f-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
Risks
- Recalls and warranty costs have often reduced Ford's earnings. A large new recall or field service action can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, such as the $571 million fuel injector action in Q2 2025.
- Ford Model e expects a loss of about $4.0 billion in 2026, which includes about $1 billion of investment in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy. Its Q3 2026 revenue fell 31%, and its loss was $1.1 billion. If new electric vehicles do not sell well, the losses can last longer.
- Tariffs and trade rules change often. Ford expects about $3 billion of tariff reimbursements, but the timing is uncertain. New tariffs on parts or vehicles would raise costs.
- Ford depends on a few key suppliers. Fires at a Novelis aluminum plant in 2025 cut production, and a supplier problem affected F-150 production in September 2026.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $25.3B
- Debt
- $23.7B
- Net cash
- $1.6B
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
Ford reports its automotive business (Company excluding Ford Credit) apart from Ford Credit, its finance company. At September 30, 2026, Company excluding Ford Credit had $23.7 billion of debt, about the same as $23.6 billion at June 30, 2026, and up from $21.9 billion at December 31, 2025, mainly because Ford assumed the $3.8 billion Department of Energy loan for a Kentucky battery plant in May 2026. Of this debt, $4.2 billion is due within one year. Ford had $25.3 billion of cash and $46.4 billion of liquidity at the end of Q3 2026, up from $22.3 billion and $43.4 billion at June 30, 2026. Its main credit facilities have $3.4 billion of commitments to April 2029 and $10.1 billion to April 2031. Ford Credit had $139.4 billion of debt at September 30, 2026, mostly unsecured debt and asset-backed securities, which it uses to fund loans and leases to customers and dealers. Ford pays a regular dividend of 15 cents per share each quarter.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 4.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 4.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $12.25)
- Paid per share
- $0.60 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.60 ($0.15 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- November 10, 2026, $0.15 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.85 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.65 | |
| 2018 | $0.73 | |
| 2019 | $0.60 | |
| 2020 | $0.15 | |
| 2021 | $0.10 | |
| 2022 | $0.50 | |
| 2023 | $0.45 | |
| 2024 | $0.78 | |
| 2025 | $0.75 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 38.0% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 2.3% a year.
One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Ford Motor
What does Ford Motor do?
Ford Motor designs, builds and sells cars, trucks, SUVs and vans under the Ford and Lincoln brands. It reports three automotive segments. Its market cap is $49B at the current price of $12.25.
When does Ford Motor report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Ford Motor may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Ford Motor stock below its intrinsic value?
Ford Motor stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Ford Motor?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Ford reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Ford Motor?
Recalls and warranty costs have often reduced Ford's earnings. Ford Model e expects a loss of about $4.0 billion in 2026, which includes about $1 billion of investment in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy. Tariffs and trade rules change often.
How much debt and cash does Ford Motor have?
At September 30, 2026, Ford Motor had $23.7B of debt and $25.3B of cash.
Does Ford Motor pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Ford Motor is $0.60 per share. That is a dividend yield of 4.9% at the current price of $12.25. The latest ex-dividend date was November 10, 2026.
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