McDonald's

McDonald's is the largest restaurant company in the world, with 46,554 restaurants in 114 countries at September 30, 2026. Franchisees run about 95% of them. McDonald's makes most of its money from rent and royalties, which are a percentage of each restaurant's sales. It owns about 56% of the land and 80% of the buildings of the restaurants in its main markets, so rent is its largest source of profit.

In 2025, franchised restaurants gave about 90% of its restaurant margin, and free cash flow was about $7.2 billion. It reports three segments: the US, International Operated Markets (such as Germany, the UK, and Australia), and International Developmental Licensed Markets (such as Japan and China), where partners run the business. Its loyalty program had about 220 million active members in Q2 2026. McDonald's has raised its dividend every year for 50 years.

McDonald's trades at a discount because fewer customers visit its US restaurants, and the plan to fix this costs money now. In Q3 2026, US same-store sales fell 0.2%, because fewer guests came and higher spending per visit made up for most, but not all, of the loss. In Q2 2026, they grew only 0.8%, also with fewer guests. Third-party data (Placer.ai) showed US visits down 4.5%, against 3.0% for the industry.

Lower-income customers, who are a large part of McDonald's visitors, cut back the most. In August 2026, McDonald's moved its 50,000-restaurant goal from 2027 to 2028. At its Investor Day on September 23, 2026, it promised about $8.5 billion of rent relief and capital support to franchisees through 2036, and the CFO said that US same-store sales will be slightly negative in Q3 2026. Investors see cash that goes out now for benefits that come over ten years.

The stock had its worst day since April 2025, and it fell about 12% in September 2026. Higher interest rates add a second pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% in September 2026, and this lowers the price investors pay for steady rent and royalties. For the gap to close, US guest counts must stop falling and turn positive in 2027, the new value menu (Extra Value Meals) must bring customers back without cutting franchisee profit, and McDonald's must keep its investment-grade credit rating while it pays the dividend and funds the franchisee plan.

On November 4, 2026, McDonald's said that US results improved as Q3 went on, after it changed its value offers. The next test is the Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in early February 2027, and above all the US guest counts. If traffic recovers, the discount can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that the consumer stays weak and the $8.5 billion goes to a franchise system that sells less.

1. Nov 4, 2026 · est.Failed

   Q3 2026 results: US guest counts and same-store salesUS same-store sales near zero or better, positive US sales in September as the CFO expected, and guest counts that stop falling in October pass; a further fall in US traffic or a cut to the outlook fails.Outcome: US same-store sales fell 0.2% and US guest counts fell again in Q3 2026, so US traffic kept falling, although McDonald's said US results improved as the quarter went on.
2. Feb 4, 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with positive US guest counts and free cash flow conversion in the mid-80% range passes; lower guidance or higher debt to fund the franchisee plan fails.
3. May 2027 · est.Pending

   Q1 2027 results: value menu and franchisee profitPositive US guest counts with stable franchisee cash flow pass; traffic that still falls after the Extra Value Meals push fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 4, 2026McDonald's reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $7.16 billion, up 1%. Diluted EPS was $3.51, and adjusted EPS was $3.57, up 11%. Global same-store sales grew 1.5%. US same-store sales fell 0.2%, because guest counts fell and higher spending per visit offset most of it. The CEO said that US results improved as the quarter went on, after the company changed its value offers. McDonald's lowered its 2026 plan to about $3.7 billion of capital spending and about 2,500 new restaurants.
• October 8, 2026In Restaurant Dive, the CFO said that the restaurant upgrades will come in phases, mostly with the normal remodel cycle, and that rent relief and capital support will be different in each market.
• October 6, 2026Bloomberg reported that some US franchisees object to the cost of the restaurant upgrades in the new plan, at least $800,000 per restaurant. The doubt also delayed franchisee visits to the prototype restaurant.

Last earnings

November 4, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 6, 2026 · mcd-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 4, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled September 23, 2026 · mcd-20260923
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 7, 2026 · mcd-20260630
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled August 4, 2026 · mcd-20260803
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 4, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled May 22, 2026 · mcd-20260520
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 7, 2026 · mcd-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled May 7, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 24, 2026 · mcd-20251231

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 63908)

• Fewer customers visit McDonald's US restaurants. US guest counts fell in Q2 and Q3 2026, and US same-store sales fell 0.2% in Q3 2026. Placer.ai data shows that about 36% of McDonald's US visitors come from areas with a median household income below $50,000, and these customers cut back the most. Competitors also push low-price deals. If traffic does not recover, rent and royalties grow slowly.
• The $8.5 billion franchisee plan costs money now, and its benefits come over about ten years. Rent relief lowers McDonald's highest-margin income. BMO estimates that it cuts earnings per share by about 1% in 2027 and 2028, and by 2% to 3% by 2030. Only 60% to 65% of franchisees used the new value prices in Q2 2026, so franchisee support is not certain.
• Higher interest rates lower the price investors pay for steady rent and royalties. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% in September 2026, and the stock fell about 12% in September 2026. The direct cost is small, because about 97% of McDonald's debt has a fixed rate, at an average of about 4.0%.
• McDonald's had about $39.9 billion of debt at June 30, 2026, about 2.6 times EBITDA, and its shareholders' equity is negative because of past buybacks. In 2025, dividends and buybacks used about all of its free cash flow. The franchisee plan leaves less cash for buybacks. Its credit ratings are BBB+ at S&P and Baa1 at Moody's.
• Sales outside the US are slowing too. Same-store sales grew only 1.4% in International Operated Markets in Q3 2026, with lower sales in France, and same-store sales in China fell in Q3 2026. China and the Middle East add political risk, and a strong US dollar lowers the value of foreign sales.
• Weight-loss drugs such as GLP-1s can reduce how much people eat out. Higher beef prices and higher minimum wages, such as California's $20 fast-food wage, lower franchisee profit first, and this can slow new restaurant openings. A food-safety problem, such as the E. coli outbreak in October 2024, can also cut traffic for months. A proposed class action filed in October 2026 alleges that McDonald's pricing tool breaks antitrust law. The case is at an early stage.

McDonald's shows negative shareholders' equity: a deficit of $1.0 billion at June 30, 2026. This is not a sign of distress, because the company owns much of the land and buildings that franchisees rent, carries this property at old cost, and gets a steady cash flow from rent and royalties. Read more

Yield at the current rate

2.7% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

2.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $274.80)

Paid per share

$7.44 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$7.44 ($1.86 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

60% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 1, 2026, $1.86 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 7.3% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 7.6% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.