NXP Semiconductors

NXP Semiconductors is a Dutch chip company based in Eindhoven. It designs and makes processors, microcontrollers, radar and network chips, secure connectivity chips and power management chips. Most of its revenue comes from cars: Automotive gave $2.07 billion of $3.79 billion in revenue in Q3 2026. The other end markets are Industrial and IoT, Mobile, and Communications Infrastructure, which now includes a small data center business.

NXP makes money from the sale of these chips to carmakers, their suppliers, industrial companies and distributors, often under designs that stay in production for many years. It makes part of its chips in its own plants and buys the rest from foundries such as TSMC. Rafael Sotomayor is the CEO.

The market fears that NXP's strong 2026 growth is a short upturn of the car chip cycle and not a lasting trend. Revenue grew 19% in Q2 and in Q3 2026 after two years of falls, but channel inventory stayed at 11 weeks, up from 9 weeks a year earlier, so part of the growth may be customers that refill stock. The stock fell 7% the day after the Q2 report and 18.5% in July 2026. Car demand, tariffs and trade measures between the US and China add doubt, and China gave 17% of Q3 2026 revenue.

For the gap to close, NXP must show that the growth continues after the restocking ends. The Q3 2026 report passed the first test: revenue was above the middle of guidance, and the Q4 guidance shows growth of 15% from a year earlier at the middle. The next checks are clear. Q4 2026 revenue must reach at least the $3.85 billion middle of guidance.

Channel inventory must stay near 11 weeks and not rise more. Automotive revenue must keep growing from a year earlier, and the Q1 2027 guidance must be above Q1 2026 revenue. Net leverage, 1.3 times at the end of Q3 2026, must stay low while NXP pays dividends and buys back stock. The next evidence comes with the Q4 2026 report in early 2027.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. If car production falls or customers cut stock, the gap can last into 2028.

1. Oct 27, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results: revenue, channel inventory and Q4 guidanceRevenue at or above the $3.75 billion middle of guidance, channel inventory near 11 weeks or lower, and Q4 guidance that grows pass; revenue near the low end, more channel inventory or a Q4 guide that falls fails.Outcome: Revenue of $3.79 billion was above the $3.75 billion middle of guidance, channel inventory stayed at 11 weeks, and the Q4 guidance of $3.85 billion at the middle grows 2% from Q3.
2. Jan 27, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and Q1 2027 guidanceAutomotive revenue that still grows from a year earlier and Q1 2027 guidance above Q1 2026 pass; a fall in automotive revenue or a weak Q1 guide fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 27, 2026NXP reported Q3 2026 revenue of $3.79 billion, up 19% from a year earlier and above the middle of its guidance. Automotive revenue grew 13% to $2.07 billion, and Industrial and IoT revenue grew 39%. Non-GAAP gross margin was 58.6%, and non-GAAP EPS was $4.20. Channel inventory stayed at 11 weeks. Free cash flow was $1.21 billion. NXP guided Q4 2026 revenue to $3.75 billion to $3.95 billion, up 15% from a year earlier at the middle. In October 2026, the board authorized $5 billion of share buybacks, in addition to the $1.3 billion that remained under the earlier authorization.
• October 6, 2026NXP said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 27, 2026, after the US market closes.
• September 1, 2026NXP signed a $250 million unsecured loan facility with the European Investment Bank to expand its assembly and test plant in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Loans can have a tenor of up to six years.

Last earnings

October 27, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 27, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 27, 2026Filed October 27, 2026 · nxpi-20260927
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 27, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled September 2, 2026 · nxpi-20260901
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 28, 2026 · nxpi-20260828
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 28, 2026Filed July 28, 2026 · nxpi-20260628
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 28, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KShareholder vote results and Other company newsFiled June 11, 2026 · nxpi-20260610
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 29, 2026Filed April 28, 2026 · nxpi-20260329
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled April 28, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KOther company newsFiled April 20, 2026 · nxpi-20260420

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1413447)

• NXP depends on car production. Automotive gave about 55% of Q3 2026 revenue. Channel inventory was 11 weeks in Q3 2026, up from 9 weeks a year earlier. If carmakers or distributors cut stock, revenue can fall fast, as it did in 2024 and 2025.
• Trade measures between the US and China can hurt sales and supply. China and Hong Kong gave $644 million of revenue in Q3 2026, and NXP has plants and suppliers in Asia. New tariffs or export controls can raise costs or block sales.
• Chip companies often lose share when a cycle turns. Competitors such as Infineon, Renesas, STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments sell into the same car and industrial markets, and Chinese chip makers grow in their home market.
• NXP had $11.0 billion of debt at September 27, 2026. Net leverage was 1.3 times EBITDA, so the debt is safe in a normal market. In a deep downturn, debt and the dividend would leave less cash for buybacks.

NXP funds itself with unsecured senior notes, loans from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and cash from operations. Debt is total debt at September 27, 2026, including discounts, issuance costs and other accounting adjustments. Read more

Yield at the current rate

1.5% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

1.5% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $269.51)

Paid per share

$4.056 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$4.056 ($1.014 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

51% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 16, 2026, $1.014 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 22.0% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.