CHKPCybersecurity software
Check Point
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $146.58
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 2 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $15B
- Shares of Dec 31, 2025
- 52-week range
- $112.23 – $202.24
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.43
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.2M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Firewall sales fell after Check Point changed its sales model, and a return to product growth as new sellers ramp in the first half of 2027 can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The 2027 outlook in early 2027 and the first half of 2027 show whether the new sales model brings product sales back.
Company guidance: Total revenues of $2,732M to $2,782M and non-GAAP EPS of $10.25 to $10.37 for FY2026 (, Q3 2026 investor presentation)
Price history
About
Check Point Software sells cybersecurity products to more than 100,000 organizations. Its best-known products are network firewalls: security appliances and software that protect company networks. It also sells security for email, cloud, remote access (SASE), exposure management and AI systems. It makes money in three ways: product and license sales ($548 million in 2025), security subscriptions ($1,219 million) and software updates and maintenance ($958 million).
Total revenue was $2,725 million in 2025, and about 80% of it is recurring. The company is based in Israel, where it does much of its research and development. Check Point has high margins and spends most of its free cash flow on share buybacks.
Thesis
The market prices Check Point at a discount because its growth stalled in 2026 while it changes how it sells. At the start of 2026, the new management changed the sales model, and firewall appliance sales fell. In April 2026, Check Point cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $2.77 billion to $2.85 billion, and the stock fell about 14% that day. In November 2026, it cut the outlook again, to $2,732 million to $2,782 million.
Q3 2026 revenue fell 1%, and product revenue fell 19%. Partner checks by Raymond James in July 2026 showed lower bookings and some customer losses. Investors also fear that platform rivals take share in firewalls and that AI changes how companies buy security. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
Product revenue must stop falling, security subscriptions must keep growing at about 11%, and the about 300 new sellers that Check Point hires must raise sales in the first half of 2027, as management expects. Revenue must also meet the Q4 2026 outlook of $720 million to $770 million. Management said that revenue reached its low point in Q3 2026 and expects gradual improvement from Q4 2026, but that the recovery takes longer than it expected. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook in early 2027 and the first two quarters of 2027 show whether the new sales force works.
If product sales recover, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that the firewall business keeps losing share, so that Check Point becomes a low-growth company.
Checkpoints
- Nov 2, 2026FailedQ3 2026 results: product revenue and the 2026 outlookA smaller fall in product revenue, subscription growth near 12% and a kept 2026 revenue outlook pass; another product decline near 14% or a lower outlook fails.Outcome: Product revenue fell 19%, subscriptions grew 11%, and Check Point cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $2,732 million to $2,782 million.
- Feb 2, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookQ4 2026 revenue within the $720 million to $770 million outlook and a 2027 outlook with faster revenue growth pass; Q4 revenue below the outlook or a 2027 outlook with growth near 2026 levels fails.
- Jul 2027 · est.PendingQ2 2027 results: the new sales forceProduct revenue that grows from a year earlier after the hiring of about 300 sellers passes; product revenue that still falls fails.
Recent events
- November 2, 2026Check Point reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $670 million, down 1%. Security subscription revenue was $339 million, up 11%, and product and license revenue fell 19% to $106 million. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.49, up 1% without a one-time tax benefit in Q3 2025, and adjusted free cash flow was $258 million. Check Point bought back about 2.5 million shares for about $325 million. It cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $2,732 million to $2,782 million from $2,770 million to $2,850 million and narrowed its non-GAAP EPS outlook to $10.25 to $10.37. For Q4 2026, it expects revenue of $720 million to $770 million.
- October 1, 2026Check Point said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 2, 2026.
- September 22, 2026Check Point said that attackers used two flaws in its Security Gateway and Security Management products. It had released a fix for the first flaw on September 9, 2026, and it released a fix for the second flaw, a new zero-day flaw in Security Management, with the advisory.
Show 6 older eventsHide older events
- September 14, 2026Check Point appointed Yoram Tietz, a Senior Advisor at General Atlantic and the former Managing Partner of EY Israel, to its Board of Directors.
- July 30, 2026Check Point reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $674 million, up 1%. Security subscription revenue was $333 million, up 12%, and product revenue fell 14%. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.55, up 8%. Check Point bought back about 2.5 million shares for about $325 million. Management kept its full-year guidance and said it will hire about 300 more sellers, with the benefit expected in the first half of 2027. It also launched an AI network firewall.
- July 15, 2026Raymond James said that partner checks showed lower bookings, a weak second-half pipeline and some customer losses, and that management changes disrupted sales.
- June 8, 2026Check Point disclosed a security flaw in the Remote Access VPN and Mobile Access functions of some gateway configurations. It released a software update and said that attackers used the flaw to get into some customer environments.
- May 11, 2026Check Point's board added $2.0 billion to the share buyback program.
- April 30, 2026Check Point reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $668 million, up 5%, and non-GAAP EPS was $2.50, up 13%. It cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $2.77 billion to $2.85 billion from $2.83 billion to $2.95 billion because firewall appliance sales fell after changes to its sales model. It kept its non-GAAP EPS outlook of $10.05 to $10.85. Sherif Seddik became Chief Revenue Officer. The stock fell about 14% in early trading.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 2, 2026
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 2, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Product sales fall. Product revenue fell 14% in Q2 2026 and 19% in Q3 2026 after changes to the sales model. Partners reported lower bookings and some customer losses in July 2026. If firewall sales do not recover, future subscription and maintenance revenue also grows more slowly.
- The sales reorganization and a new Chief Revenue Officer from May 2026 add execution risk. The about 300 new sellers add cost in 2026, and management expects their benefit only in the first half of 2027. Operating expenses rose 13% in Q2 2026. In Q3 2026, non-GAAP operating expenses rose 4%, after a $25 million benefit from Israeli research grants.
- Competition is strong. Platform companies such as Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet and CrowdStrike compete for firewall, cloud and AI security budgets.
- Check Point has its main offices and much of its research staff in Israel. A war in the region can disrupt operations, and it can make some customers less willing to buy.
- Security flaws in its own products, such as the VPN flaw disclosed in June 2026 and the two gateway and management flaws of September 2026 that attackers used, can hurt customer trust. Higher memory prices also lower the gross margin on appliances.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $4.1B
- Debt
- $2.0B
- Net cash
- $2.1B
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2030.
Check Point has more cash than debt. Its only debt is $2.0 billion of 0% convertible senior notes due December 15, 2030, which it issued in December 2025. The initial conversion price is about $243.65 per share. On conversion, Check Point pays the principal in cash, and it can pay the premium above the principal in cash or shares. Cash is cash, deposits and marketable securities, $4,123 million at September 30, 2026, up from $2,817 million a year earlier because of the note proceeds. The notes had a carrying value of $1,976 million at September 30, 2026. Deferred revenue was $1,992 million at September 30, 2026, cash that customers paid for future service. The notes pay no interest, so interest cover does not apply. Check Point bought back shares for about $325 million in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3 2026, and in May 2026 the board added $2.0 billion to the buyback program.
Dividends
Check Point does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about Check Point
What does Check Point do?
Check Point Software sells cybersecurity products to more than 100,000 organizations. Its best-known products are network firewalls: security appliances and software that protect company networks. Its market cap is $15B at the current price of $146.58.
When does Check Point report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Check Point may report on February 2, 2027. It last reported results on November 2, 2026.
Is Check Point stock below its intrinsic value?
Check Point stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Check Point?
The latest update is from November 2, 2026. Check Point reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Check Point?
Product sales fall. The sales reorganization and a new Chief Revenue Officer from May 2026 add execution risk. Competition is strong.
How much debt and cash does Check Point have?
At September 30, 2026, Check Point had $2.0B of debt and $4.1B of cash.
Does Check Point pay a dividend?
No. Check Point does not pay a dividend.
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