DEOBeverages (spirits & beer)
Diageo
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $100.28
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 5 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $61B
- Shares of Jun 30, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 2.0%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 2.0%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- $72.45 – $102.74
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.54
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.1M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Weak US spirits demand, tariffs and high debt hold Diageo back, and the gap can close slowly if the new plan stops the US share loss and cuts leverage by fiscal 2029.
- Gap
- Slow. The new strategy runs through fiscal 2029, so the gap closes only as US share and leverage improve over several years.
Company guidance: Free cash flow of c.$2 billion and broadly flat organic net sales growth for fiscal 27 (, Fiscal 27 Q1 trading statement (6-K))
Price history
About
Diageo is a global leader in beverage alcohol, with products sold in nearly 180 countries. Its brands include Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal and Buchanan's whiskies, Smirnoff and Ketel One vodkas, Don Julio tequila, Captain Morgan rum, Baileys, Tanqueray gin and Guinness beer. It makes money by selling these drinks to distributors, retailers, bars and restaurants, and premium brands earn the highest margins.
In the fiscal year to June 30, 2026, net sales were $19.6 billion and operating profit before exceptional items was $5.7 billion. Sir Dave Lewis became CEO in January 2026 and set a new strategy and a new operating framework in August 2026. The company is listed in London and its ADRs trade in New York.
Thesis
The market prices Diageo with a discount because its US spirits business is shrinking and its plan to fix it is new. In fiscal 2026, organic net sales fell 2.0%, from weak US spirits and from a fall in Chinese white spirits after a change in Chinese government policy. For fiscal 2027, Diageo expects broadly flat organic net sales, with North America down mid-single-digit in a US market that it expects to shrink by about 3%. US tariffs also lower margins.
The company cut its full-year dividend to 50 cents per share from 103.48 cents to reduce its debt, and net debt was still 3.1 times adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Diageo must meet its fiscal 2027 guidance: low-to-mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth and about $2 billion of free cash flow. Its US market share must stop falling.
The new operating framework must deliver about 40% of its $850 million of savings in fiscal 2027. The sale of East African Breweries must close in the second half of 2026, and leverage must fall to the middle of the 2.5 to 3.0 times range by June 2027. The Q1 trading update of November 5, 2026 was in line with this plan. The next evidence comes with the interim results expected in early February 2027 and the full-year results in August 2027.
Because the turnaround runs through fiscal 2029, the gap can close only slowly, over two to three years.
Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026PassedQ1 fiscal 2027 trading update: North AmericaA pass is organic net sales near flat with a smaller North America decline and guidance kept; a fail is a guidance cut or a larger North America decline.Outcome: Organic net sales grew 1.4%, North America fell 3.6%, less than the high-single-digit fall of early 2026, and Diageo kept its fiscal 2027 guidance.
- Dec 2026 · est.PendingSale of East African Breweries completesA pass is completion in the second half of calendar 2026 with lower net debt; a fail is a delay into 2027 or a lower price.
- Feb 5, 2027 · est.PendingFiscal 2027 interim results: savings and leverageA pass is organic operating profit growth with savings on plan and leverage toward 3.0 times or less; a fail is falling profit or leverage above 3.1 times.
Recent events
- November 6, 2026Shareholders passed every resolution at Diageo's annual general meeting on November 5, 2026, including the final dividend, which got 99.91% of the votes. Diageo said that Melissa Bethell replaces Susan Kilsby as Chair of the Remuneration Committee from November 6. Kilsby stays on the board as Senior Independent Director.
- November 5, 2026Diageo said that organic net sales grew 1.4% in Q1 fiscal 2027, the quarter to September 30, 2026, or 0.6% without East African Breweries. North America organic net sales fell 3.6%, with double-digit falls in Don Julio, Casamigos and Crown Royal. Latin America and Caribbean, Asia Pacific, India and Europe, Middle East and Africa grew. Diageo kept its fiscal 2027 guidance, including about $2 billion of free cash flow and leverage near the middle of its 2.5 to 3.0 times range at June 30, 2027, if the sales of East African Breweries and Royal Challengers Bengaluru complete.
- October 13, 2026Diageo published restated regional results for fiscal 2025 and 2026. The restatement matches its new market and regional operating framework, which applies from fiscal 2027.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- September 23, 2026Diageo said that Joanne Wilson, now the CFO of WPP, will replace Nik Jhangiani as Chief Financial Officer some time in 2027. Jhangiani stays in the role until the handover.
- August 6, 2026Diageo reported fiscal 2026 results. Reported net sales fell 3.0% to $19.6 billion, and organic net sales fell 2.0%. Organic operating profit grew 2.0%. Exceptional restructuring costs of $0.9 billion and impairments of $1.5 billion, mostly for Türkiye and the Don Papa brand, cut reported operating profit by 27.2%. Free cash flow rose by $463 million to $3.2 billion, and the full-year dividend was 50 cents per share under the new dividend policy.
- August 6, 2026At its Capital Markets Day, Diageo set a new strategy and expected about $1 billion of savings over three years, $850 million of it from the new operating framework. For fiscal 2027, it guided broadly flat organic net sales, low-to-mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth and about $2 billion of free cash flow. For fiscal 2027 to 2029, it guided low-single-digit organic net sales growth and mid-single-digit organic operating profit growth a year.
- May 6, 2026Diageo said that organic net sales grew 0.3% in the quarter to March 31, 2026. Europe, Latin America and Africa grew strongly, but North America declined high-single-digit because of continued US spirits weakness. Diageo kept its fiscal 2026 guidance.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · deo-20260630
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · deo-20251231
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025Filed · deo-20250630
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · deo-20241231
Risks
- US spirits demand is weak and Diageo loses share there. North America organic net sales fell high-single-digit in the quarter to March 31, 2026, and Diageo expects them to fall mid-single-digit in fiscal 2027.
- Debt is high for a company with flat sales. Net debt was $20.5 billion at June 30, 2026, or 3.1 times adjusted EBITDA, above the 2.5 to 3.0 times target range. The plan to cut leverage depends on the sales of East African Breweries and the Royal Challengers Bengaluru cricket team.
- US tariffs on imports and the retaliatory tariffs of other countries lower margins. Tariffs partly offset Diageo's organic operating profit growth in fiscal 2026.
- Chinese government policy hurt Chinese white spirits in fiscal 2026. Without this business, organic net sales would have been about 1.5 points higher.
- The restructuring is large and new. It costs about $1.2 billion, and the CFO will change in 2027. If savings come late, Diageo can miss its fiscal 2027 guidance.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.5B
- Debt
- $21.5B
- Net debt
- $20.0B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.0×
- EBITDA $6.7B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 7.0×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $4.6B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $20.0B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
At June 30, 2026, debt is borrowings without lease liabilities and hedges. The group's net debt was $20.5 billion, because it also includes $685 million of lease liabilities and the fair value of hedges. Adjusted EBITDA is for fiscal 2026, and interest cover uses operating profit before exceptional items and net finance charges of $816 million. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA, after post-employment benefit liabilities, was 3.1 times, down from 3.4 times a year earlier, against a target range of 2.5 to 3.0 times that Diageo says fits an A-band credit rating. Undrawn committed bank facilities were $4.56 billion, of which $1.06 billion expires within one year. Diageo expects the sale of its East African Breweries stake to close in the second half of calendar 2026 and to cut leverage by about 0.25 times. The 2026 annual report does not state the current ratings.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 2.0% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 2.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $100.28)
- Paid per share
- $2.00 in the last 12 months (2 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $2.00 (the last two payments)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- October 16, 2026, $1.20 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $3.225 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $3.224 | |
| 2018 | $3.553 | |
| 2019 | $3.49 | |
| 2020 | $3.644 | |
| 2021 | $4.015 | |
| 2022 | $3.849 | |
| 2023 | $4.038 | |
| 2024 | $4.139 | |
| 2025 | $4.139 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 2.6% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 1.8% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Diageo
What does Diageo do?
Diageo is a global leader in beverage alcohol, with products sold in nearly 180 countries. Its brands include Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal and Buchanan's whiskies, Smirnoff and Ketel One vodkas, Don Julio tequila, Captain Morgan rum, Baileys, Tanqueray gin and Guinness beer. Its market cap is $61B at the current price of $100.28.
When does Diageo report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Diageo may report on February 5, 2027. It last reported results on August 6, 2026.
Is Diageo stock below its intrinsic value?
Diageo stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Diageo?
The latest update is from November 6, 2026. Shareholders passed every resolution at Diageo's annual general meeting on November 5, 2026, including the final dividend, which got 99.91% of the votes.
What are the main risks for Diageo?
US spirits demand is weak and Diageo loses share there. Debt is high for a company with flat sales. US tariffs on imports and the retaliatory tariffs of other countries lower margins.
How much debt and cash does Diageo have?
At June 30, 2026, Diageo had $21.5B of debt and $1.5B of cash.
Does Diageo pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Diageo is $2.00 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.0% at the current price of $100.28. The latest ex-dividend date was October 16, 2026.
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