DANOYPackaged food & beverages
Danone
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $15.17
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $52B
- Shares of Jun 18, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 3.4%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.4%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- $12.83 – $18.63
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.15
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 635K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
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In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Danone for slow growth in Europe, the 2026 infant formula recall and weak North American dairy, and a return to growth in these areas through 2027 can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The full-year 2026 results in early 2027 show whether infant formula in Europe recovers and North American dairy improves.
Company guidance: Like-for-like sales growth of +3% to +5% for 2026 (, Q3 2026 sales press release)
Price history
About
Danone is a food and beverage company based in Paris. It has three categories: Essential Dairy and Plant-based (EDP), such as Activia, Alpro, Oikos and Silk, Specialized Nutrition, such as Aptamil infant formula and Nutricia medical nutrition, and Waters, such as evian, Volvic, Aqua and Mizone. Since January 2026, it reports three regions: EMEA, the Americas and APAC. Sales were € 27.3 billion in 2025, with a recurring operating margin of 13.4%.
In 2026, Danone bought Huel, a maker of complete meal products, and agreed to buy MADE Group in Australia. Sales were € 7.2 billion in Q3 2026. Danone shares trade in Paris. DANOY is an American Depositary Receipt that trades over the counter in the United States.
Thesis
The market prices Danone for slow growth in Europe and for problems in two businesses. In Q2 2026, sales in Europe grew only 0.6% like-for-like. Since January 2026, Danone has recalled batches of infant formula in some markets after national food safety authorities changed their requirements, and the company says that trust in the category in Europe must still be rebuilt. Danone also says that parts of its dairy portfolio in North America are not competitive enough.
Free cash flow fell 27% to € 852 million in the first half of 2026, and net debt rose to € 9.0 billion after the dividend. The purchases of Huel and MADE Group add integration risk. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Like-for-like sales must grow 3% to 5% in 2026, with recurring operating income growing faster than sales, as the company guides.
Infant formula in Europe must return to growth as the market normalizes, as management expects. North American dairy must keep improving. Q3 2026 sales grew 4.0% like-for-like, and Danone confirmed its guidance, but growth in Europe was only 1.9% and Danone named new leaders for its US business. The full-year 2026 results in early 2027 are the main test.
If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is weak consumer demand in Europe, together with higher input costs that Danone cannot fully pass on in prices.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026PassedQ3 2026 sales: Europe and infant formulaLike-for-like sales growth inside the 3% to 5% range and a recovery in infant formula in Europe pass; growth below 3% or a further fall in infant formula fails.Outcome: Like-for-like sales grew 4.0% and Danone confirmed its guidance, and infant formula in Europe kept a slow recovery.
- Jan 28, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance2026 like-for-like growth of 3% to 5% with recurring operating income growing faster than sales, and free cash flow near the € 2.8 billion of 2025, pass; a miss on the guidance or lower free cash flow fails.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026Danone reported Q3 2026 sales of € 7,233 million, up 4.0% like-for-like, with price up 3.6% and volume/mix up 0.4%. Europe grew 1.9% and North America grew 2.4% like-for-like. Infant formula returned to normal in the Middle East and kept a slow recovery in Europe. Danone confirmed its 2026 guidance and named new leaders for its US business. It plans to buy back about 3.5 million shares by the end of 2026 to offset employee share plans. Chief Operations Officer Vikram Agarwal will retire in early 2027.
- September 21, 2026Danone issued € 1.5 billion of bonds in three tranches of € 500 million each: 18-month floating rate notes, 5-year notes at 4.0910% and 9-year notes at 4.4180%.
- September 4, 2026Danone completed the purchase of Huel, a maker of complete, nutritionally balanced meal products. Huel is in Danone's accounts from September 1, 2026.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- August 1, 2026Danone and Arcor completed their joint venture in Argentina. Danone owns 50%, and the business is now an equity-accounted company in Danone's accounts.
- July 29, 2026Danone reported first-half 2026 results. Sales were € 13.9 billion, up 3.5% like-for-like, with Q2 up 4.2%. The recurring operating margin rose 0.12 percentage points to 13.3%, and recurring EPS rose 0.9% to € 1.92. Free cash flow fell to € 852 million. Danone confirmed its 2026 guidance.
- June 22, 2026Danone agreed to buy MADE Group, a health-focused food company in Australia, and the remaining 49% of its fresh dairy joint venture with Saputo Dairy Australia. Both deals are expected to close in the second half of 2026.
- January 23, 2026Danone announced a targeted recall of specific infant formula batches, as national food safety authorities changed their guidance. In February 2026, Danone said that the financial impacts identified were not material.
Risks
- The infant formula recall in 2026 hurt sales in Europe and the Middle East. Sales returned to normal in the Middle East in Q3 2026, but the recovery in Europe is slow, and Specialized Nutrition sales in EMEA fell 0.3% like-for-like in Q3 2026.
- Danone says that parts of its dairy portfolio in North America are not competitive enough. Q3 2026 like-for-like sales in North America grew 2.4%, with volume/mix down 0.6%, and Danone named new leaders for its US business.
- Inflation in raw materials and logistics put pressure on margins in the first half of 2026. Danone is raising prices in many markets, which can reduce volumes if consumers buy less.
- Most sales are outside the euro area. Currencies reduced reported sales by 3.3% in the first half of 2026 and added 1.5% in Q3 2026. Changes in the euro to dollar rate also move the ADR price.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- €8.3B
- Debt
- €17.4B
- Net debt
- €9.0B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.1×
- EBITDA €4.3B, last 12 months
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt €9.0B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
Danone funds its operations with bonds, bank debt and commercial paper, and it holds large cash and short-term investments. At June 30, 2026, financial debt was € 17.4 billion, including bank overdrafts of € 1.1 billion and about € 0.4 billion of liabilities for put options of minority shareholders. Cash and short-term investments were € 8.3 billion. Net debt was € 9.0 billion, up from € 8.4 billion at December 31, 2025, mainly because of the dividend of € 2.25 per share paid in May 2026. EBITDA is Danone's EBITDA for 2025, as it defines it for its net debt to EBITDA ratio, which was 2.0 times at December 31, 2025. The cost of net financial debt was € 104 million in the first half of 2026. The purchase of Huel in September 2026 and the pending purchase of MADE Group will add to net debt in the second half. In September 2026, Danone issued € 1.5 billion of new bonds. Danone does not publish a balance sheet for Q3, so these are the latest figures.
As of
Show 4 sourcesHide sources
- danone.com /content/dam/corp/global/danonecom/investors/en-all-publications/2026/pressreleases/prdanone290726.pdf
- danone.com /content/dam/corp/global/danonecom/investors/en-all-publications/2026/pressreleases/danonepr200226.pdf
- danone.com /content/dam/corp/global/danonecom/investors/aide-memoire/2026/danoneQ32026aidememoire.pdf
- danone.com /content/dam/corp/global/danonecom/investors/en-all-publications/2026/pressreleases/prdanone281026.pdf
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.4% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $15.17)
- Paid per share
- $0.523 in the last 12 months (1 payment)
- Current annual rate
- $0.523 ($0.523 × 1 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- May 1, 2026, $0.523 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.364 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.364 | |
| 2018 | $0.464 | |
| 2019 | $0.432 | |
| 2020 | $0.473 | |
| 2021 | $0.467 | |
| 2022 | $0.419 | |
| 2023 | $0.435 | |
| 2024 | $0.455 | |
| 2025 | $0.487 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 0.6% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 4.1% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Danone
What does Danone do?
Danone is a food and beverage company based in Paris. It has three categories: Essential Dairy and Plant-based (EDP), such as Activia, Alpro, Oikos and Silk, Specialized Nutrition, such as Aptamil infant formula and Nutricia medical nutrition, and Waters, such as evian, Volvic, Aqua and Mizone. Its market cap is $52B at the current price of $15.17.
When does Danone report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Danone may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on July 29, 2026.
Is Danone stock below its intrinsic value?
Danone stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Danone?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Danone reported Q3 2026 sales of € 7,233 million, up 4.0% like-for-like, with price up 3.6% and volume/mix up 0.4%.
What are the main risks for Danone?
The infant formula recall in 2026 hurt sales in Europe and the Middle East. Danone says that parts of its dairy portfolio in North America are not competitive enough. Inflation in raw materials and logistics put pressure on margins in the first half of 2026.
How much debt and cash does Danone have?
At June 30, 2026, Danone had €17.4B of debt and €8.3B of cash.
Does Danone pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Danone is $0.523 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.4% at the current price of $15.17. The latest ex-dividend date was May 1, 2026.
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