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PCGRegulated electric & gas utility

PG&E

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$13.10
Analysts view
Leaning bullish
Discount category
Far below intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 22 · · estimated
Gap to intrinsic value
Structural gap (California has no cap on wildfire liability, the 2026 reform bill failed, and one bad fire can erase years of profit.)
History
Market cap
$35B
Shares of Jul 15, 2026
Yield at current rate
1.5%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
1.5%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
9.4
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$1.39
12 months to Jun 30, 2026
52-week range
$11.77 – $19.16
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.17
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
40M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Open-ended wildfire liability in California holds the price down, and without a durable legal reform the gap will probably not close before 2028.
Gap
Will probably not close. California has no cap on wildfire liability, the 2026 reform bill failed, and one bad fire can erase years of profit.

Company guidance: Non-GAAP core EPS of $1.64 to $1.66 for 2026 and $1.78 to $1.82 for 2027 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

About

PG&E owns Pacific Gas and Electric Company. This is the monopoly electric and gas utility for northern and central California. It delivers power and natural gas to about 16 million people.

PG&E earns a regulated return on the money it spends on poles, wires, pipelines, and power plants. State regulators set this return through rate cases.

Thesis

PG&E carries a wildfire liability that most other regulated utilities do not face in the same way. California's inverse-condemnation rule can make PG&E pay for fire damage even without proven negligence. The 2019 bankruptcy showed that one bad fire season can erase years of profit. In 2025, lawmakers extended the Wildfire Fund with SB 254, but they kept inverse condemnation.

In 2026, a reform bill, SB 492, did not get a final vote before the Assembly adjourned on September 1. PG&E then cut about $2 billion of planned 2027 capital spending, suspended its long-term growth outlook, and started a strategic review of its structure. For the gap to close, lawmakers need to pass a durable reform, such as a liability cap or a faster victim-payment fund. Or PG&E needs to run several more fire seasons without a major equipment-caused fire, so its real-world loss record improves how the market prices this risk.

The strategic review can also lower the risk if it separates parts of the business from the wildfire liability. PG&E said on October 22, 2026 that it plans to share the outcome of the review no later than summer 2027. The CPUC plans to issue a proposed decision on November 13, 2026 on PG&E's request to recover costs from the 2019 Kincade fire and the 2021 Dixie fire. This is the first test of the prudence standard in the 2019 wildfire law, AB 1054.

A new legislative session starts on December 7, 2026, and a new governor takes office in January 2027. On September 30, 2026, the governor said that a reform deal may fall to his successor. This discount will probably not close before 2028, even if PG&E keeps avoiding major fires in the meantime.

Checkpoints

  1. Aug 31, 2026Failed
    California legislature votes on wildfire liability reformA passed bill that caps liability or speeds victim payments passes; a session end with no bill fails.Outcome: The Assembly adjourned on September 1 without a vote on SB 492, and PG&E stock fell about 20% on August 31.
  2. Oct 22, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: capital plan and strategic review updateKept 2026 and 2027 guidance and a funded capital plan without new equity passes; a guidance cut or a plan to issue equity fails.Outcome: PG&E reaffirmed 2026 and 2027 core EPS guidance and said it does not expect to issue equity through 2030.
  3. Nov 13, 2026 · est.Due today
    CPUC proposed decision on Kincade and Dixie fire cost recoveryA proposed decision that finds PG&E prudent, lets it recover most of the about $1.45 billion of costs that the Wildfire Fund cannot pay, and needs no payback to the Fund passes; a finding that PG&E was not prudent, or an order to pay back the Fund, fails.
  4. Dec 7, 2026Pending
    New legislative session starts and can take up wildfire reformA reform bill with a liability cap or a faster victim-payment fund moving forward in 2027 passes; no progress fails.
  5. Jan 22, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results: 2026 delivery and financing plan2026 core EPS inside $1.64 to $1.66, kept 2027 guidance and no new equity pass; a guidance cut or a plan to issue equity fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 22, 2026PG&E reported Q3 2026 results. Core EPS was $0.41, down from $0.50 in Q3 2025, mainly because of a lower allowed return on equity in 2026. Core EPS for the first nine months was $1.24, up from $1.14. PG&E reaffirmed 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64 to $1.66 and 2027 guidance of $1.78 to $1.82. It said it does not expect to issue equity through 2030. On the call, CEO Patti Poppe said PG&E plans to share the outcome of the strategic review no later than summer 2027. This timeline comes from a call transcript.
  • October 5, 2026At an S&P Global Ratings webinar, CFO Carolyn Burke said wildfire liability legislation is PG&E's preferred path, but it is highly uncertain. She said the strategic review looks at the full range of options, which can include ring-fencing the power plant and gas businesses. She gave no timeline for the review. She said the CPUC expects to issue a proposed decision on Kincade and Dixie fire cost recovery in November.
  • October 2, 2026The CPUC judge in the Kincade and Dixie fire cost case (A.25-11-001) set an oral argument for October 26, 2026. On October 8, the judge refused a request to delay the decision and said that the evidence record is closed.
Show 8 older events
  • October 1, 2026PG&E filed a 10-year plan to put about 5,000 miles of power lines underground in high fire-risk areas from 2028 to 2037. The state Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety must approve the plan first. After that, PG&E will ask the CPUC to approve the cost.
  • September 30, 2026Governor Newsom said that a wildfire liability deal may fall to the next governor, who takes office in January 2027. He did not rule out a special session, but he did not expect a vote this year.
  • September 16, 2026Fitch Ratings changed its outlook on PG&E Corporation and the utility to negative from stable. It kept the BBB- rating. Fitch cited the failed wildfire liability reform and said more downgrades are likely without progress.
  • September 11, 2026In its CPUC brief on the Kincade and Dixie fires, PG&E asked to recover about $1.449 billion of costs that the Wildfire Fund cannot pay, plus about $329 million of system repair costs. It also asked the CPUC to confirm that PG&E does not have to pay back about $1.2 billion that the Wildfire Fund paid for the two fires by July 31, 2026.
  • September 2, 2026PG&E cut planned 2027 capital spending by about $2 billion, from $13.4 billion to $11.4 billion. It kept its 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64 to $1.66 and gave 2027 guidance of $1.78 to $1.82. It suspended its five-year capital and rate base outlook, which was $73 billion for 2026 to 2030, and its growth target after 2027. Its board formed a committee of four independent directors for a strategic review of the company, with no timeline.
  • September 1, 2026The California Assembly adjourned without a vote on SB 492, the wildfire liability bill. The governor and legislative leaders had announced the deal in this bill on August 29. Lawmakers had removed parts of the governor's plan, such as limits on lawsuits by insurers and on damages.
  • August 31, 2026PG&E stock fell about 20% in one trading day, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The wildfire liability bill in the legislature did not include the main parts of the reform that PG&E wanted.
  • July 23, 2026PG&E reported Q2 2026 results. Core earnings per share were $0.40. The company reaffirmed its 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64 to $1.66.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 22, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 22, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1004980)

Risks

  • PG&E still faces open-ended wildfire liability. Lawmakers did not pass a liability reform in 2026, so a large future fire caused by PG&E equipment could again threaten its balance sheet, as it did in 2019.
  • After the reform bill failed on September 1, 2026, PG&E cut about $2 billion of planned 2027 capital spending and suspended its five-year capital outlook and its growth target after 2027. PG&E said the cut could delay new customer connections, such as data centers, which are central to its growth plan. More reform failures could keep forcing PG&E to scale back the growth spending its plan relies on.
  • At October 14, 2026, PG&E knew of about 190 lawsuits, with at least 9,061 plaintiffs, over the 2021 Dixie fire. PG&E says it resolved most of these claims. The court cancelled the individual trial set for December 2, 2026, and no trial is scheduled. The larger open question is cost recovery. PG&E asks the CPUC to let it recover about $1.449 billion of Kincade and Dixie fire costs that the Wildfire Fund cannot pay, plus about $329 million of repair costs, at July 31, 2026. If the CPUC finds that PG&E was not prudent, PG&E cannot recover these costs and may need to pay back part of the about $1.2 billion that the Wildfire Fund paid for the two fires.
  • PG&E's board started a strategic review in September 2026 that could lead to major changes in how the company is structured or financed. A committee of four independent directors leads it. Its stated goal is an investment-grade credit rating. PG&E plans to share the outcome no later than summer 2027, and the outcome is not yet known.

Balance sheet

Cash
$902M
Debt
$65.0B
Net debt
$64.1B
Net debt / EBITDA
5.9×
as the company states it
Interest cover
3.4×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$4.9B
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$902M
Debt$65.0B

debt covered by cashnet debt $64.1B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$3.7B
Later$61.3B

Credit ratings

  • S&P BB+ · stable
  • Moody's Baa3 · positive
  • Fitch BBB- · negative

PG&E borrows mostly at the regulated utility, and debt is high for the cash that PG&E makes. In the first nine months of 2026, capital spending of $9.6 billion was larger than operating cash flow of $5.8 billion, so free cash flow was about minus $3.8 billion.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
1.5% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
1.5% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $13.10)
Paid per share
$0.20 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$0.20 ($0.05 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
11% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
September 30, 2026, $0.05 per share

Dividends per share by year

PG&E dividends per share by year
2016
$1.925
2017
$1.55
2018
$0.00
2019
$0.00
2020
$0.00
2021
$0.00
2022
$0.00
2023
$0.01
2024
$0.055
2025
$0.125

From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 23.5% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about PG&E

What does PG&E do?

PG&E owns Pacific Gas and Electric Company. This is the monopoly electric and gas utility for northern and central California. Its market cap is $35B at the current price of $13.10.

When does PG&E report earnings next?

This is an estimate: PG&E may report on January 22, 2027. It last reported results on October 22, 2026.

Is PG&E stock below its intrinsic value?

PG&E stock is far below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at PG&E?

The latest update is from October 22, 2026. PG&E reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for PG&E?

PG&E still faces open-ended wildfire liability. After the reform bill failed on September 1, 2026, PG&E cut about $2 billion of planned 2027 capital spending and suspended its five-year capital outlook and its growth target after 2027. At October 14, 2026, PG&E knew of about 190 lawsuits, with at least 9,061 plaintiffs, over the 2021 Dixie fire.

How much debt and cash does PG&E have?

At September 30, 2026, PG&E had $65.0B of debt and $902M of cash.

Does PG&E pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of PG&E is $0.20 per share. That is a dividend yield of 1.5% at the current price of $13.10. The latest ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.

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