By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $213.00
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 5 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $278B
- Shares of Mar 31, 2026
- 52-week range
- $166.10 – $248.90
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.64
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 331K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Toyota for falling profit, US tariffs and the move to new technologies, and results on track for its raised forecast with steady buybacks can close the gap over three to six quarters.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report in November 2026 and the fiscal 2028 forecast in May 2027 show whether profit recovers from tariffs and costs.
Company guidance: Basic EPS of JPY 299.95 and operating income of JPY 3.9 trillion for FY2027 (year ending March 2027) (, FY2027 semi-annual financial summary (6-K Ex. 99.2))
Price history
About
Toyota Motor is one of the largest carmakers in the world, based in Toyota City, Japan. It sells cars, trucks and SUVs under the Toyota and Lexus brands in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia and other regions, and it also has a large financial services business that lends to car buyers and dealers. It leads the market for hybrid vehicles (HEVs), and it also sells plug-in hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell vehicles.
In the quarter to June 30, 2026, it sold 2.40 million vehicles on a consolidated basis, and electrified vehicles were 55% of Toyota and Lexus sales. Its fiscal year ends on March 31; sales revenues were ¥50.7 trillion in fiscal 2026. Its shares trade in Tokyo, and its ADRs trade on the NYSE.
Thesis
The market prices Toyota for US tariffs, for higher material costs and for the costs of the move to new technologies. Toyota still has tariff-driven losses in North America, and its profit depends on the exchange rate of the yen: its forecast assumes ¥160 per US dollar. Investors also worry that battery electric and software vehicles from Chinese makers can take share from it over time. Results are better than feared: in the first half of fiscal 2027, operating income rose 9.2% to ¥2.19 trillion, and in November 2026 Toyota raised its full-year operating income forecast for the second time, to ¥3.9 trillion, above the ¥3.77 trillion of fiscal 2026.
It also raised its buyback program to up to ¥1.3 trillion, which includes a tender offer for shares that insurance companies hold. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Toyota must reach its raised forecast while hybrid sales keep growing. Cost reduction and price must offset tariffs and material costs.
Toyota must keep improving its capital efficiency with buybacks and the sale of cross-shareholdings. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test. The full-year results and the fiscal 2028 forecast in May 2027 are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to six quarters.
The main reason it may not close is a stronger yen, which would lower its profit from exports.
Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026PassedQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings: tariffs and the forecastResults on track for the ¥3.4 trillion operating income forecast, or a higher forecast, pass; a cut to the forecast fails.Outcome: First-half operating income rose 9.2% to ¥2.19 trillion, and Toyota raised its full-year operating income forecast to ¥3.9 trillion from ¥3.4 trillion.
- Feb 5, 2027 · est.PendingQ3 fiscal 2027 earnings: the raised forecastNine-month results on track for the ¥3.9 trillion operating income forecast, or a higher forecast, pass; a cut to the forecast fails.
- May 2027 · est.PendingFiscal 2027 results and the fiscal 2028 forecastA fiscal 2028 forecast with higher operating income and continued buybacks passes; another year of lower profit fails.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026Toyota reported first-half fiscal 2027 results. Sales revenues rose 9.5% to ¥26.96 trillion, operating income rose 9.2% to ¥2.19 trillion and net income attributable to Toyota rose 26.1% to ¥2.24 trillion. Toyota raised its forecast for the year to March 2027 to operating income of ¥3.9 trillion from ¥3.4 trillion and net income of ¥3.57 trillion, with sales revenues of ¥53.5 trillion. It kept its planned annual dividend of ¥100 per share.
- November 5, 2026The board raised the buyback program to up to 610 million shares, or up to ¥1.3 trillion, to August 4, 2027, and added a tender offer for its own shares at ¥2,725 per share. Insurance companies of the MS&AD, Tokio Marine and Sompo groups said that they will tender part of their Toyota shares. By October 31, 2026, Toyota had bought back 108.9 million shares for ¥330.0 billion under the program.
- October 5, 2026Toyota said that it bought back 35.6 million of its shares for ¥108.5 billion in September 2026 under its ¥1 trillion buyback program.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- August 4, 2026Toyota reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Sales revenues rose to ¥13.53 trillion and operating income was ¥1.06 trillion, down from ¥1.17 trillion. Net income rose to ¥1.48 trillion with large other income. Toyota raised its forecast for the year to March 2027 to sales revenues of ¥54.0 trillion, operating income of ¥3.4 trillion and net income of ¥3.25 trillion. It said that the effect of the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake was not yet in the forecast.
- August 4, 2026The board approved a buyback of up to 500 million shares, or up to ¥1 trillion, from August 5, 2026 to August 4, 2027, and the cancellation of 200 million treasury shares.
- May 8, 2026Toyota reported fiscal 2026 results. Sales revenues were ¥50.68 trillion, operating income was ¥3.77 trillion and net income was ¥3.85 trillion. Its first forecast for fiscal 2027 was operating income of ¥3.0 trillion.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- US tariffs on imported vehicles and parts raise Toyota's costs. Higher tariffs, or new trade rules in other markets, can lower its profit.
- A large part of Toyota's profit comes from exports. A stronger yen against the US dollar and the euro would lower its operating income.
- Chinese carmakers sell battery electric and software vehicles at low prices. They can take share from Toyota in China, Asia and other markets.
- Earthquakes, supply disruptions and conflicts, such as the situation in the Middle East, can stop production or shipments. The effect of the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake was not in the forecast of August 2026.
Balance sheet
At September 30, 2026, Toyota had total assets of ¥101.98 trillion, liabilities of ¥63.67 trillion and total shareholders' equity of ¥38.31 trillion, of which ¥37.45 trillion belonged to Toyota's shareholders. At March 31, 2026, total assets were ¥105.52 trillion and total equity was ¥41.02 trillion; the fall came mostly from the sale of its shares in Toyota Industries, the deconsolidation of Hino Motors and buybacks. Most of its debt belongs to its financial services business, which funds loans to car buyers and dealers. Cash and cash equivalents were ¥9.48 trillion at September 30, 2026, down from ¥10.34 trillion at June 30, 2026. Net cash from operating activities was ¥1.60 trillion in the first half of fiscal 2027, down from ¥2.94 trillion a year earlier. Toyota plans an annual dividend of ¥100 per share. In November 2026, it raised its buyback program to up to ¥1.3 trillion to August 2027, and it had used ¥330.0 billion of it by October 31, 2026.
As of
Show 4 sourcesHide sources
Dividends
The dividend data after March 31, 2025 is missing.
- Latest ex-dividend date
- March 31, 2025, $3.457 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $3.787 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $3.764 | |
| 2018 | $3.947 | |
| 2019 | $1.83 | |
| 2020 | $4.24 | |
| 2021 | $4.548 | |
| 2022 | $3.965 | |
| 2023 | $4.499 | |
| 2024 | $5.462 | |
| 2025 | $3.457 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 4.0% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 0.5% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Toyota Motor
What does Toyota Motor do?
Toyota Motor is one of the largest carmakers in the world, based in Toyota City, Japan. It sells cars, trucks and SUVs under the Toyota and Lexus brands in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia and other regions, and it also has a large financial services business that lends to car buyers and dealers. Its market cap is $278B at the current price of $213.00.
When does Toyota Motor report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Toyota Motor may report on February 5, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.
Is Toyota Motor stock below its intrinsic value?
Toyota Motor stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Toyota Motor?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Toyota reported first-half fiscal 2027 results.
What are the main risks for Toyota Motor?
US tariffs on imported vehicles and parts raise Toyota's costs. A large part of Toyota's profit comes from exports. Chinese carmakers sell battery electric and software vehicles at low prices.
How much debt and cash does Toyota Motor have?
At September 30, 2026, Toyota had total assets of ¥101.98 trillion, liabilities of ¥63.67 trillion and total shareholders' equity of ¥38.31 trillion, of which ¥37.45 trillion belonged to Toyota's shareholders. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does Toyota Motor pay a dividend?
The dividend data for Toyota Motor after March 31, 2025 is missing.
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