MPWRSemiconductors (power management)
Monolithic Power Systems
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $1,478.69
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $72B
- Shares of Oct 27, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 0.5%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 0.5%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 81.5
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $18.15
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $833.18 – $1,714.09
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.72
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 828K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market fears that MPS's AI server growth can stop fast, and steady growth in all end markets with no import ban from the Vicor case over three to five quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. Quarterly reports through early 2027 show whether AI server revenue holds and other markets grow, and the ITC case and the control fix give more dated checks.
Company guidance: Revenue of $1,315 million to $1,385 million for Q4 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings commentary (8-K))
Price history
About
Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) designs chips and modules that control and convert electric power. It does not own wafer factories; partner foundries make its chips with its own process technology. Its products go into AI servers, cloud data centers, cars, memory and storage, network equipment, industrial machines and consumer devices. In Q3 2026, Enterprise Data (power for AI and server processors) gave 42.1% of revenue, Storage and Computing 16.0%, Communications 15.6%, and Automotive 15.0%.
MPS sells mostly through distributors, which gave 88% of sales in the first half of 2026, and 94% of Q2 2026 revenue shipped to customers in Asia. It makes money from the sale of these parts, and it returns cash to shareholders with a quarterly dividend of $2.00 per share and buybacks. Its founder, Michael Hsing, is still the CEO, and Tony Balow became CFO in October 2026.
Thesis
The market prices MPS as a supplier whose growth depends on one wave of AI server orders that can stop as fast as it started. In Q3 2026, Enterprise Data revenue grew 165% from a year earlier and gave 42% of revenue, so a pause in AI spending or a lost design at a large AI chip customer would hit revenue quickly. Three company problems add to this fear. On October 9, 2026, the US International Trade Commission opened a patent case from Vicor against MPS and 19 other companies about vertical power delivery for AI servers, and Vicor asks for an import ban.
In February 2026, MPS restated its 2024 and 2025 results for a tax error, and the material weakness in its controls was still not fixed at June 30, 2026. The CFO post was filled only on October 27, 2026, after eight months with an interim CFO. For the gap to close, revenue must keep growing in other end markets as well as in AI, and the checks are clear. Q4 2026 revenue must reach the $1,315 million to $1,385 million guidance, with gross margin near 55% or higher.
Enterprise Data must grow at least 130% in 2026, the floor management set in July. Automotive must grow in the mid-teens. The ITC case must end without an import ban on MPS parts. The 2026 annual report must show the material weakness fixed.
The GlobalFoundries plant in Singapore must start volume production for MPS in early 2027. The Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026 passed the first check: revenue was $1,202 million, above guidance. More evidence comes with the full-year 2026 report and the annual report in early 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters.
If AI orders slow or the ITC case goes against MPS, the gap can stay into 2028.
Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: AI server revenue and Q4 guidanceRevenue at or above the $1,140 million to $1,160 million guidance, gross margin near 55% or higher and Q4 guidance that grows again pass; revenue below guidance or a Q4 guide that falls fails.Outcome: Revenue was $1,202.4 million, the non-GAAP gross margin was 55.7%, and the Q4 guidance of $1,315 million to $1,385 million grows again.
- Jan 29, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results: AI server revenue and Q1 2027 guidanceRevenue at or above the $1,315 million to $1,385 million guidance with gross margin near 55% passes; revenue below guidance or a Q1 2027 guide that falls fails.
- Feb 2027 · est.Pending2026 annual report: Enterprise Data growth for the year and controlsEnterprise Data growth of 130% or more for 2026, a material weakness that management reports as fixed, and a permanent CFO pass; slower Enterprise Data growth or a weakness still open fails.
- Q1 2027 · est.PendingGlobalFoundries Singapore volume productionVolume production of MPS parts in Singapore in early 2027, as planned on September 9, 2026, passes; a delay of the start fails.
Recent events
- October 29, 2026MPS reported record Q3 2026 revenue of $1,202.4 million, up 63.1% from a year earlier and above its guidance of $1,140 million to $1,160 million. Enterprise Data revenue grew 164.6% to $506.7 million, and Communications revenue grew 134.7%. The non-GAAP gross margin was 55.7%, and non-GAAP EPS was $8.19. MPS bought back $453.4 million of its shares in the quarter. It guided Q4 2026 revenue to $1,315 million to $1,385 million. The board added $500 million to the buyback program, for a total of $1 billion.
- October 27, 2026The board appointed Tony Balow, Vice President of Finance since 2023 and before that 23 years at Intel, as CFO. Robert Dean, the interim CFO since February 2026, became Chief Accounting Officer.
- October 9, 2026The US International Trade Commission opened a patent investigation (337-TA-1526) after a complaint that Vicor filed on September 9, 2026. MPS and its affiliates in China are among 20 respondents, with Delta, Infineon, Foxconn, Quanta and others. The case is about vertical power delivery systems for AI and cloud servers. Vicor asks for an exclusion order and cease-and-desist orders. The case is at an early stage.
Show 6 older eventsHide older events
- October 8, 2026MPS said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, after the market closes.
- September 10, 2026MPS declared a Q3 2026 dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on October 15, 2026, to holders of record on September 30, 2026.
- September 9, 2026GlobalFoundries and MPS signed a long-term manufacturing agreement. MPS will run its own process technology in GlobalFoundries' 300mm plant in Singapore, with volume production planned for early 2027. The plant will make automotive, industrial and AI server power products.
- July 30, 2026MPS reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $980.6 million, up 47.6% from a year earlier and above its guidance of $890 million to $910 million. Enterprise Data revenue grew 164.3% to $380.6 million. Non-GAAP EPS was $6.50. It guided Q3 2026 revenue to $1,140 million to $1,160 million and raised its 2026 growth floor for Enterprise Data from 85% to 130%. The board added $500 million to the buyback program.
- June 12, 2026MPS declared a Q2 2026 dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on July 15, 2026.
- April 30, 2026MPS reported Q1 2026 revenue of $804.2 million and non-GAAP EPS of $5.10. Communications revenue grew 33% from Q4 2025 on power products for optical modules and network switches.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mpwr-20260930
- 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · mpwr-20260910
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · mpwr-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KShareholder vote results and Other company newsFiled · mpwr-20260611
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KCurrent reportFiled · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Enterprise Data revenue grew 165% from a year earlier in Q3 2026 and gave 42.1% of revenue. This revenue depends on the AI server plans of a small number of large chip and cloud companies. A pause in AI spending, a design loss at the next AI platform, or excess stock at distributors can cut revenue fast.
- Vicor asks the US International Trade Commission to ban imports of vertical power delivery products that it says break its patent. The commission opened the case on October 9, 2026, and MPS is a respondent. An exclusion order could block MPS parts for AI servers from the US, unless MPS changes the design or settles.
- Most sales go through Asia: in Q2 2026, $502 million of $981 million in revenue shipped to China, and a large part of MPS's manufacturing capacity is in China. New US or Chinese export controls, tariffs or retaliation can disturb sales or supply. Some customers ask for supply chains outside China, which cost more.
- In February 2026, MPS restated its 2024 and 2025 financial statements because of a non-cash error in deferred income taxes, and the material weakness in its internal control was not fixed at June 30, 2026. The CFO retired in early 2026, and a new CFO started only on October 27, 2026. A shareholder class action from February 2025 is also pending.
- Two distributors gave 28% and 15% of Q2 2026 revenue. A distributor can end its agreement with notice, which can cause a short break in sales.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.1B
- Debt
- $0.0M
- Net cash
- $1.1B
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
MPS has no debt and no borrowings at September 30, 2026. Cash is cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. It fell to $1,091.2 million from $1,413.8 million at June 30, 2026, because MPS bought back $453.4 million of its shares in Q3 2026. The company funds its growth, its dividend and its buybacks from operating cash flow, which was $289.9 million in Q3 2026. Inventory was $764.9 million, or 130 days of Q3 2026 revenue. Accounts receivable were $461.6 million, or 35 days of sales. Total liabilities were $938.8 million against $3,733.7 million of stockholders' equity. In October 2026, the board added $500 million to the buyback program, for a total of $1 billion available. The main financial need is capital spending for capacity, which raised property and equipment to $821.6 million at September 30, 2026 from $627.7 million at December 31, 2025. MPS expects capacity for $8 billion of annual revenue by the second half of 2027.
As of
Show 1 sourceHide sources
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 0.5% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 0.5% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $1,478.69)
- Paid per share
- $7.56 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $8.00 ($2.00 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 49% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 30, 2026, $2.00 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.80 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.80 | |
| 2018 | $1.20 | |
| 2019 | $1.60 | |
| 2020 | $2.00 | |
| 2021 | $2.40 | |
| 2022 | $3.00 | |
| 2023 | $4.00 | |
| 2024 | $5.00 | |
| 2025 | $6.24 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 25.6% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 22.8% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Monolithic Power Systems
What does Monolithic Power Systems do?
Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) designs chips and modules that control and convert electric power. It does not own wafer factories; partner foundries make its chips with its own process technology. Its market cap is $72B at the current price of $1,478.69.
When does Monolithic Power Systems report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Monolithic Power Systems may report on January 29, 2027.
Is Monolithic Power Systems stock below its intrinsic value?
Monolithic Power Systems stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Monolithic Power Systems?
The latest update is from October 29, 2026. MPS reported record Q3 2026 revenue of $1,202.4 million, up 63.1% from a year earlier and above its guidance of $1,140 million to $1,160 million.
What are the main risks for Monolithic Power Systems?
Enterprise Data revenue grew 165% from a year earlier in Q3 2026 and gave 42.1% of revenue. Vicor asks the US International Trade Commission to ban imports of vertical power delivery products that it says break its patent. Most sales go through Asia: in Q2 2026, $502 million of $981 million in revenue shipped to China, and a large part of MPS's manufacturing capacity is in China.
How much debt and cash does Monolithic Power Systems have?
At September 30, 2026, Monolithic Power Systems had $0.0M of debt and $1.1B of cash.
Does Monolithic Power Systems pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Monolithic Power Systems is $8.00 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.5% at the current price of $1,478.69. In the last 12 months, it paid $7.56 per share (0.5%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.
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