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LPLAWealth management

LPL Financial

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$301.62
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Pick status
Top pick
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 27 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$23B
Shares of Oct 27, 2026
Yield at current rate
0.4%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
0.4%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
17.3
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$17.45
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$260.15 – $400.16
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.55
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
889K
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors fear that AI tools will take client cash and advisors from LPL, and steady organic growth with a Commonwealth conversion in Q4 2026 that keeps most assets can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 Commonwealth conversion, the monthly activity reports and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027 give dated checks.

Company guidance: Core G&A outlook range of $2,140-2,160 million for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

About

LPL Financial gives independent financial advisors the tools, custody, compliance and back office that they need to run their own practices. It supports more than 32,000 advisors and the wealth businesses of about 1,100 banks and other financial institutions. Total client assets were about $2.6 trillion at September 30, 2026, and 60.9% of them were in advisory accounts.

LPL makes money from advisory and brokerage fees, of which it pays a large part to the advisors, and from fees on assets and trades. It also earns interest income on client cash that it sweeps to partner banks. LPL grows by recruiting advisors from other firms and by buying firms, such as Commonwealth Financial Network in 2025.

Thesis

The market discounts LPL because it fears that AI tools will change how advisors and clients manage money. In February 2026, Altruist launched an AI tax planning tool, and wealth management stocks fell for weeks. Analysts asked whether AI that moves idle client cash into higher-yield products can reduce LPL's income from client cash in bank sweep accounts. On September 22, 2026, the stock fell about 7% after concerns about AI agents and news that the CFO joined the board of Valero Energy.

Debt also rose for the Commonwealth purchase, and the credit agreement leverage ratio went from 1.23 times at June 30, 2025 to 1.93 times at September 30, 2026. In Q3 2026, recruited assets fell 26% from a year earlier, and LPL lowered the expected Commonwealth asset retention to about 83% from about 90%. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Organic net new assets must keep growing at about 4% a year or more, and client cash must stay near its low level of about 2% of client assets.

In Q3 2026, organic growth was 4.5% and client cash was 2.2% of client assets, so this condition holds for now. The Commonwealth conversion must finish in Q4 2026 with high asset retention, and the lower 83% expectation makes this condition weaker. Leverage must fall while LPL keeps buying back shares. The evidence comes with the Commonwealth conversion in Q4 2026, the monthly activity reports and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If AI tools take a large share of client cash or recruited assets keep slowing, the discount can last.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 27, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: organic growth and client cashOrganic net new assets at a 4% annualized rate or more and stable client cash pass; slower organic growth or a large fall in client cash fails.Outcome: Organic net new assets grew at a 4.5% annualized rate, and client cash stayed at $56.6 billion, 2.2% of client assets.
  2. Q4 2026Due this quarter
    Commonwealth conversionConversion in Q4 2026 with about 90% of assets retained passes; a delay or retention well below 90% fails.
  3. Jan 27, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results: leverage and buybacksA leverage ratio that falls from 1.91 times with buybacks still in place passes; higher leverage or a stop to buybacks fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 27, 2026LPL reported Q3 2026 results. Adjusted EPS rose 15% to $5.97, and diluted EPS was $4.52. Total client assets were $2.6 trillion, up 11% from a year earlier. Organic net new assets were $29 billion, a 4.5% annualized rate, and client cash was $56.6 billion, 2.2% of client assets. Recruited assets fell 26% from a year earlier to $24 billion. LPL now expects to keep about 83% of Commonwealth assets, down from about 90%, and it lowered the expected run-rate EBITDA of Commonwealth to $415 million from $435 million. The conversion stays on track for Q4 2026. LPL bought back $301 million of shares in the quarter and began to give its own AI agent, Cyan, to advisors.
  • October 6, 2026LPL said that it will report Q3 2026 results after the market closes on October 27, 2026.
  • September 24, 2026LPL reported August 2026 activity. Total client assets were about $2.60 trillion, up 2.2% from July. Organic net new assets were $13.5 billion, and client cash balances were $54.4 billion, about flat from July.
Show 4 older events
  • September 22, 2026LPL stock fell about 7% in one day. Reports linked the fall to concerns that AI agents can move client money, and to news that CFO Matt Audette joined the board of Valero Energy.
  • July 30, 2026LPL reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $5.84, up 29%, and total client assets were $2.6 trillion, up 34%. Organic net new assets were $23 billion, a 4% annualized rate. LPL raised the expected run-rate EBITDA of Commonwealth to $435 million from $410 million and resumed share buybacks, with $309 million in the quarter. The board added $2.5 billion to the buyback authorization on July 23, 2026. In Q2 2026, LPL also closed the purchase of Mariner Advisor Network, a branch with 367 advisors and about $31 billion of client assets.
  • May 1, 2026LPL stock fell 4.6% to $318.63 the day after its Q1 2026 report, with adjusted EPS of $5.60. Analysts asked about AI risks on the call. The CEO said that LPL sees no near-term risk of more cash sorting by advisors because of AI.
  • April 30, 2026LPL reported Q1 2026 results with adjusted EPS of $5.60.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 27, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 27, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1397911)

Risks

  • AI tools can change how advisors and clients manage money. If AI moves more client cash out of bank sweep accounts into higher-yield products, LPL's interest income from client cash falls. New AI-based platforms can also compete for advisors.
  • Income from client cash depends on interest rates and on the fees that partner banks pay. Lower rates or lower fees reduce this income. Client cash balances were $56.6 billion at September 30, 2026, about the same as at June 30, 2026.
  • LPL must move the Commonwealth advisors and assets onto its platform in Q4 2026. In October 2026, it lowered the share of assets that it expects to keep to about 83% from about 90%, and the expected run-rate EBITDA to $415 million from $435 million. If more advisors leave, the deal gives even less EBITDA.
  • Revenue moves with stock and bond markets, because most fees are a percentage of client assets. A large market fall lowers fees and can slow recruiting.
  • LPL is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and the states. Regulatory actions, fines or new rules on cash sweep programs or advisor pay can raise costs.

Balance sheet

Cash
$563M
Debt
$7.8B
Net debt
$7.3B
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9×
as the company states it
Credit line
$1.6B
undrawn, to May 2029

Cash against debt

Cash$563M
Debt$7.8B

debt covered by cashnet debt $7.3B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

When the debt is due

12 months$500M
Later$7.3B

The last debt is due in 2035.

LPL funds itself with senior unsecured notes, a term loan and a revolving credit facility at LPL Holdings, the parent of its broker-dealer. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $7.84 billion: $6.2 billion of fixed-rate notes due from 2027 to 2035, a $1.02 billion Term Loan A due December 2028 and $616 million drawn on the $2.25 billion revolving credit facility, which ends in May 2029.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
0.4% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
0.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $301.62)
Paid per share
$1.20 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$1.20 ($0.30 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
11% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
November 12, 2026, $0.30 per share

Dividends per share by year

LPL Financial dividends per share by year
2016
$1.00
2017
$1.00
2018
$1.00
2019
$1.00
2020
$1.00
2021
$1.00
2022
$1.00
2023
$1.20
2024
$1.20
2025
$1.20

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 3.7% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 1.8% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about LPL Financial

What does LPL Financial do?

LPL Financial gives independent financial advisors the tools, custody, compliance and back office that they need to run their own practices. It supports more than 32,000 advisors and the wealth businesses of about 1,100 banks and other financial institutions. Its market cap is $23B at the current price of $301.62.

When does LPL Financial report earnings next?

This is an estimate: LPL Financial may report on January 27, 2027. It last reported results on October 27, 2026.

Is LPL Financial stock below its intrinsic value?

LPL Financial stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at LPL Financial?

The latest update is from October 27, 2026. LPL reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for LPL Financial?

AI tools can change how advisors and clients manage money. Income from client cash depends on interest rates and on the fees that partner banks pay. LPL must move the Commonwealth advisors and assets onto its platform in Q4 2026.

How much debt and cash does LPL Financial have?

At September 30, 2026, LPL Financial had $7.8B of debt and $563M of cash.

Does LPL Financial pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of LPL Financial is $1.20 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.4% at the current price of $301.62. The latest ex-dividend date was November 12, 2026.

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