MGEEElectric & gas utility
MGE Energy
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $79.53
- Analysts view
- Mixed
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 4 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $3.0B
- Shares of Oct 30, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 2.6%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 2.4%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.3
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $4.34
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $68.01 – $85.30
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.68
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 174K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices MGE Energy as a small utility that issues new shares in a time of high interest rates, and the approved 2027 rate increases with steady rate base growth can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The 2027 rate increase, the Fuel Cost Plan decision by the end of 2026 and the next quarterly reports give dated tests.
Price history
About
MGE Energy is a public utility holding company based in Madison, Wisconsin. Its main subsidiary, Madison Gas and Electric, generates and distributes electricity to 170,000 customers in Dane County, Wisconsin, and buys and distributes natural gas to 180,000 customers in seven counties in south-central and western Wisconsin. It owns shares in coal, natural gas, wind and solar plants, and it invests in more solar, wind and battery storage.
The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin sets its rates, so earnings grow mostly with the rate base. MGE Energy has increased its dividend for 51 years in a row.
Thesis
The market prices MGE Energy as a small, slow-growing utility that must issue new shares and debt to pay for its investments. Its electric rates rose only 0.15% in 2026 under the rate settlement, and it sold new shares in May 2026. The value depends much on interest rates, because investors buy the stock mainly for its dividend. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
The approved increase of 3.63% in electric rates and 2.04% in gas rates for 2027 must take effect, as the settlement says. The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin must approve the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026. MGE must complete its solar, wind and battery projects near their approved costs, so that rate base and earnings grow. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 showed higher earnings from the larger rate base, and the full-year report in early 2027 gives the next evidence.
If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which lower the value of utility shares and raise the cost of new debt.
Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026PassedQ3 2026 earningsHigher year-to-date earnings from the growing rate base pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail.Outcome: Net income for the first nine months of 2026 rose to $138.2 million, or $3.70 per diluted share, from $112.6 million, or $3.08, with a larger rate base and investment gains.
- Dec 2026 · est.Pending2027 Fuel Cost Plan decisionApproval of the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026 passes; a delay or a large disallowance fails.
- Feb 4, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 earnings: full year and 2027 ratesHigher 2026 earnings and the 2027 rate increases in effect as the settlement says pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail.
Recent events
- November 4, 2026MGE Energy reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $56.4 million, or $1.48 per diluted share, up from $1.22 a year earlier. Electric earnings rose $11.6 million because renewable projects grew the rate base, and AFUDC equity on projects under construction rose $3.3 million. Investment gains added about $2.2 million more than a year earlier. For the first nine months, diluted EPS was $3.70, up from $3.08.
- October 1, 2026MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric amended their credit agreements and extended them to October 1, 2031. One of the Madison Gas and Electric agreements with JPMorgan Chase increased from $90 million to $210 million.
- August 21, 2026MGE Energy increased its quarterly dividend by 7.0% to $0.5083 per share. This was its 51st year in a row of dividend increases.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- August 5, 2026MGE Energy reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $33.4 million, or $0.89 per share, compared with $0.72 a year earlier. Electric earnings rose $3.0 million because of a higher rate base from new renewable projects, and investment gains of about $3.9 million also helped.
- May 6, 2026MGE Energy agreed to sell 3,300,331 shares in a public offering. It sold 990,099 shares directly, for net proceeds of about $72.2 million, and the other 2,310,232 shares were sold under forward sale agreements, which it settles later.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 4, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · mgee-20261105
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mgee-20260930
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · mgee-20261001
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · mgee-20260821
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · mgee-20260630
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · mgee-20260619
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · mgee-20260519
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · mgee-20260508
Risks
- Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and make the dividend less attractive compared with bonds. This can lower the share price even if earnings grow.
- The investment plan needs new shares and new debt. In May 2026, MGE Energy sold 3.3 million shares, partly under forward agreements. More shares lower the growth in EPS.
- Some projects cost more than the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin first approved. MGE asks for recovery of the higher costs, but regulators may not allow all of them.
- MGE plans to stop the use of coal as a primary fuel at the Elm Road Units by the end of 2030. The change needs approval and investment, and costs can increase.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $11M
- Debt
- $934M
- Net debt
- $923M
- Interest cover
- 5.1×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $923M
When the debt is due
At September 30, 2026, debt was $934 million: long-term debt of $878 million, long-term debt due within one year of $6 million and short-term debt of $50 million. Cash was $11 million. In January 2026, Madison Gas and Electric issued $90 million of senior unsecured notes, and in September 2026 it repaid $15 million of debt. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the nine months to September 30, 2026. On October 1, 2026, MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric extended their credit agreements to October 1, 2031. On September 30, 2026, the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin allowed Madison Gas and Electric to issue up to $800 million of long-term debt through 2029 and up to $250 million of short-term debt, from October 1, 2026. MGE Energy can also receive about $168 million when it settles its forward share sales, which it can do through January 2028.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 2.6% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 2.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $79.53)
- Paid per share
- $1.933 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $2.032 ($0.508 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 50% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 1, 2026, $0.508 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $1.206 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.262 | |
| 2018 | $1.322 | |
| 2019 | $1.382 | |
| 2020 | $1.446 | |
| 2021 | $1.516 | |
| 2022 | $1.592 | |
| 2023 | $1.672 | |
| 2024 | $1.756 | |
| 2025 | $1.85 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 5.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 4.8% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about MGE Energy
What does MGE Energy do?
MGE Energy is a public utility holding company based in Madison, Wisconsin. Its market cap is $3.0B at the current price of $79.53.
When does MGE Energy report earnings next?
This is an estimate: MGE Energy may report on February 4, 2027. It last reported results on November 4, 2026.
Is MGE Energy stock below its intrinsic value?
MGE Energy stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at MGE Energy?
The latest update is from November 4, 2026. MGE Energy reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for MGE Energy?
Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and make the dividend less attractive compared with bonds. The investment plan needs new shares and new debt. Some projects cost more than the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin first approved.
How much debt and cash does MGE Energy have?
At September 30, 2026, MGE Energy had $934M of debt and $11M of cash.
Does MGE Energy pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of MGE Energy is $2.032 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.6% at the current price of $79.53. In the last 12 months, it paid $1.933 per share (2.4%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 1, 2026.
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