TAPBeer and beverages
Molson Coors
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $39.69
- Analysts view
- Mixed
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 5 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $7.0B
- Shares of Oct 29, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 4.8%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 4.8%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.6
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $4.60
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $35.52 – $54.82
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.45
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 4.0M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Molson Coors for a long decline in beer volumes and higher costs, and stable US volumes with recovering margins in 2027 can close the gap.
- Gap
- Slow. The gap closes only when beer volumes stop falling and margins recover, which can take several years of execution.
Company guidance: Underlying EPS decline of 16% to 19% vs 2025; net sales decline of 1% to 2% at constant currency for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
Molson Coors Beverage Company is one of the largest beer companies in the world, based in Golden, Colorado, and Montréal, Québec. Its core brands include Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet, Molson Canadian, Carling and Ožujsko, and its above premium brands include Madrí Excepcional, Staropramen and Blue Moon. Its value brands include Miller High Life and Keystone Light. Since 2025, it has had the exclusive rights to make and sell Fever-Tree mixers in the United States, and it holds a minority stake in Fevertree Drinks plc.
On April 1, 2026, it bought Atomic Brands, the maker of Monaco Cocktails, for $275 million. It has two segments: Americas (the United States, Canada and Latin America) and EMEA&APAC (mostly Europe). Net sales were $2.93 billion in Q3 2026.
Thesis
The market prices Molson Coors for a long decline in beer volumes and for higher costs. In Q3 2026, brand volume fell 4.9%, net sales fell 1.6% and underlying EPS fell 12.6% to $1.46. Fewer young adults drink beer, and customers move to spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails and non-alcoholic drinks. Costs for aluminum, including the Midwest Premium of about $130 million more this year, and for logistics stay high.
In November 2026, Molson Coors cut its 2026 guidance again: it now expects underlying EPS to fall 16% to 19% and underlying free cash flow of about $1.0 billion. For the gap to close, three things must be true. US brand volumes must stop falling faster than the beer market, so that Coors Light and Miller Lite keep their share. Cost savings and price must restore margins in 2027.
The new businesses beyond beer, such as Monaco and Fever-Tree, must grow enough to offset part of the beer decline. Molson Coors keeps underlying free cash flow near $1.0 billion, which pays for dividends and buybacks while it waits. The 2027 outlook with the Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
The main reason it may not close is a faster structural decline in beer drinking.
Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026FailedQ3 2026 earnings: volumes and costsA smaller fall in US brand volume and results on track for the 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance or a faster volume decline fails.Outcome: Brand volume fell 4.9%, with 5.3% in the Americas, and Molson Coors cut its 2026 guidance to a fall of 16% to 19% in underlying EPS.
- Feb 5, 2027 · est.Pending2026 results and the 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with stable or higher underlying earnings passes; guidance for another year of lower earnings fails.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026Molson Coors reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales fell 1.6% to $2.93 billion, and brand volume fell 4.9%, with a 5.3% fall in the Americas. Underlying EPS fell 12.6% to $1.46, and GAAP EPS was $1.45. Molson Coors cut its 2026 guidance to a fall of 1% to 2% in net sales at constant currency, a fall of 16% to 19% in underlying EPS and underlying free cash flow of about $1.0 billion. It said that weak beer demand will continue in Q4 2026 and that logistics costs are higher than it expected.
- October 6, 2026Molson Coors said that it will report Q3 2026 results at about 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 5, 2026.
- August 6, 2026Molson Coors reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales fell 3.3% to $3.10 billion and brand volume fell 4.8%. Underlying EPS fell 22.9% to $1.58, and GAAP EPS was $1.23. Molson Coors kept its 2026 guidance: flat net sales at constant currency, underlying EPS down 11% to 15% and underlying free cash flow of about $1.1 billion. After the quarter, it repaid its $2.0 billion of 3.0% senior notes.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- July 16, 2026The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, paid on September 18, 2026.
- June 24, 2026Philip Whitehead, the CEO of the EMEA&APAC business, took medical leave. Simon Kerry, the head of the UK and Ireland business, became interim head of EMEA&APAC.
- May 27, 2026Molson Coors issued $500 million of 4.900% senior notes due 2031 and $1.0 billion of 5.500% senior notes due 2036. A subsidiary also sold C$500 million of 4.300% senior notes due 2033.
- April 1, 2026Molson Coors bought Atomic Brands, the maker of Monaco Cocktails, a ready-to-drink cocktail brand, for $275 million in cash.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · tap-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · tap-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · tap-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
Risks
- Beer volumes in the United States, Canada and Europe are falling as customers drink less or move to other drinks. Brand volume fell 4.9% in Q3 2026, and a faster decline would lower sales and margins.
- Costs for aluminum cans, including the US Midwest Premium, and for other materials and logistics can stay high. Molson Coors may not raise prices enough to cover them.
- Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands and craft and spirits makers compete for the same customers and shelf space. Share losses in core brands would lower profit.
- New businesses beyond beer, such as Monaco and Fever-Tree, are small. They may not grow enough to offset the decline in beer.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $602M
- Debt
- $6.0B
- Net debt
- $5.4B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.5×
- as the company states it
- Credit line
- $1.7B
- undrawn, to June 2030
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $5.4B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
At September 30, 2026, Molson Coors had total debt of $6.00 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $602 million, so net debt was $5.39 billion. Net debt was 2.53 times underlying EBITDA, compared with 2.28 times a year earlier. The current part of debt and short-term borrowings was $330 million, mostly $297 million of commercial paper. On July 15, 2026, Molson Coors repaid its $2.0 billion of 3.0% senior notes with the money from its May 2026 notes and cash on hand, which is why cash fell from $2.13 billion at June 30, 2026. Nothing was drawn on its $2.0 billion revolving credit facility, which matures on June 26, 2030, but commercial paper of about $0.3 billion reduces it, so about $1.7 billion was available at November 5, 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, underlying free cash flow was $852 million, and Molson Coors paid $273.1 million of dividends and $254.9 million for share buybacks.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 4.8% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 4.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $39.69)
- Paid per share
- $1.91 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $1.92 ($0.48 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 28, 2026, $0.48 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $1.64 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.64 | |
| 2018 | $1.64 | |
| 2019 | $1.96 | |
| 2020 | $0.57 | |
| 2021 | $0.68 | |
| 2022 | $1.52 | |
| 2023 | $1.64 | |
| 2024 | $1.76 | |
| 2025 | $1.88 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 27.0% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 1.4% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Molson Coors
What does Molson Coors do?
Molson Coors Beverage Company is one of the largest beer companies in the world, based in Golden, Colorado, and Montréal, Québec. Its market cap is $7.0B at the current price of $39.69.
When does Molson Coors report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Molson Coors may report on February 5, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.
Is Molson Coors stock below its intrinsic value?
Molson Coors stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Molson Coors?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Molson Coors reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Molson Coors?
Beer volumes in the United States, Canada and Europe are falling as customers drink less or move to other drinks. Costs for aluminum cans, including the US Midwest Premium, and for other materials and logistics can stay high. Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands and craft and spirits makers compete for the same customers and shelf space.
How much debt and cash does Molson Coors have?
At September 30, 2026, Molson Coors had $6.0B of debt and $602M of cash.
Does Molson Coors pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Molson Coors is $1.92 per share. That is a dividend yield of 4.8% at the current price of $39.69. In the last 12 months, it paid $1.91 per share (4.8%). The latest ex-dividend date was August 28, 2026.
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