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Marvell Technology

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$168.80
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Far below intrinsic value
Pick status
Top pick
Next earnings
Earnings Dec 1 ·
History
Market cap
$148B
Shares of Aug 21, 2026
Yield at current rate
0.1%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
0.1%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
55.9
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$3.02
12 months to Aug 1, 2026
52-week range
$70.69 – $329.88
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
2.32
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
25M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market sees the custom chip business of Marvell as unproven, and custom programs, including the added Google programs, that ramp up on schedule over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report on December 1, 2026 and the ramp of new custom chip programs over the next quarters test the targets Marvell raised at its October 6 Investor Day.

Company guidance: Q3 fiscal 2027 net revenue at the $3.150 billion midpoint, range narrowed to +/- 2% from +/- 5% (, Marvell and Lumentum joint press release (8-K Ex. 99.1))

Price history

About

Marvell designs chips that move, switch and store data, mostly in data centers. About 70% of its fiscal 2026 revenue came from connectivity chips, such as optical interconnect, network switching and storage chips. About 30% came from custom AI chips that Marvell builds for a small number of large cloud companies. Management expects the custom chip business to grow faster than the rest of the company.

In the quarter that ended August 1, 2026, data center chips gave 79% of revenue. Marvell does not run its own factories. TSMC makes all of its chips on the most advanced processes.

Thesis

The market still prices Marvell's custom chip business as unpredictable and unproven. Revenue depends on a small number of big customer programs starting up. Growth in this business has swung sharply before, which makes investors cautious about counting on the pace management now guides. At its Investor Day on October 6, 2026, management raised its targets.

It now guides fiscal 2028 revenue to about $20 billion. It expects custom chip revenue to more than double in fiscal 2028 and then to more than triple in fiscal 2029, to more than $12 billion. It also set a path to $70 billion to $90 billion of revenue in fiscal 2031. These are targets, not results.

For the gap to close, the custom programs must ramp up on schedule, including the added Google programs that bring more revenue from fiscal 2029 onward. The 2-nanometer optical technology that Marvell demonstrated in September 2026 must also turn into design wins and shipments. The next checkpoint is the Q3 fiscal 2027 report on December 1, 2026, and the fiscal 2028 outlook follows near March 2027. If these programs ramp up as planned over the next three to five quarters, Marvell's growth can catch up to faster-growing peers, and the gap can close.

If a large customer moves work in-house or to a rival like Broadcom, the gap could persist.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 6, 2026Passed
    Investor Day: custom silicon roadmapClear multi-year custom revenue targets with named program ramps pass; vague targets or a lower fiscal 2028 outlook fail.Outcome: Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and its fiscal 2029 custom revenue outlook to more than $12 billion.
  2. Dec 1, 2026Pending
    Q3 fiscal 2027 results against $3.15 billion guidanceRevenue at or above $3.15 billion and a held fiscal 2027 outlook of about $12 billion pass; a miss or a lower outlook fails.
  3. Mar 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlookA confirmed fiscal 2028 revenue outlook of about $20 billion with custom revenue more than doubling passes; a cut or a lost program fails.
  4. 2028 · est.Pending
    Lumentum purchase: approvals and closingApproval by the stockholders of both companies and by regulators and a closing in the first half of 2028 pass; a block by regulators or a vote against the deal fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 2, 2026Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum, a maker of lasers, optical transceivers and optical circuit switches, in an all-stock deal. Each Lumentum share becomes 4.500 Marvell shares, which gives Lumentum an enterprise value of about $115 billion, and Lumentum holders will own about 33% of the combined company. Marvell expects more than $1 billion of yearly run-rate cost savings and a higher non-GAAP EPS in the first year after the closing. The closing is expected in the first half of 2028 and needs the approval of the stockholders of both companies and of regulators. Marvell must pay Lumentum $3.2 billion if the deal fails for certain regulatory reasons.
  • November 2, 2026Marvell said that its preliminary revenue for Q3 fiscal 2027 agrees with the midpoint of its guidance of $3.15 billion, and it narrowed the range to plus or minus 2%, from plus or minus 5%. The complete results come later.
  • October 22, 2026Marvell replaced its $1.5 billion revolving credit facility, which was due in June 2030, with a new revolving credit facility of up to $3 billion. The new facility runs for five years, and Marvell can increase it by up to $2 billion. No loans were outstanding under it on October 22, 2026.
Show 6 older events
  • October 13, 2026Marvell announced two new connectivity chips for AI data centers. The Alaska E retimer carries 3.2 terabits per second over 16 lanes of 224G signals. The second-generation Alaska A digital signal processor lets 1.6T copper cables reach more than six meters, about double the first generation. Both chips are sampling to customers. Marvell gave no production dates.
  • October 6, 2026At its Investor Day, Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion, from about $18 billion. It raised its fiscal 2029 custom chip revenue outlook to more than $12 billion, from more than $10 billion. Management also set a path to $70 billion to $90 billion of annual revenue by fiscal 2031.
  • September 21, 2026At the ECOC 2026 optical-networking conference in Málaga, Spain, Marvell demonstrated 2-nanometer optical interconnect technology for AI data centers. The demonstrations included 800G and 1.6T pluggable optics and a 102.4-terabit co-packaged optics platform. Marvell gave no shipment dates.
  • September 17, 2026Marvell and GlobalFoundries expanded their multi-year deal for silicon germanium chip capacity at GlobalFoundries' plant in Burlington, Vermont. Marvell will use it for optical products such as pluggable optics and co-packaged optics.
  • August 27, 2026Marvell reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue reached a company record of $2.74 billion, up 37% from a year earlier. Management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to about $12 billion, from about $11.5 billion, and the fiscal 2028 outlook to about $18 billion, from about $16.5 billion. It guided Q3 revenue to $3.15 billion, plus or minus 5%.
  • August 19, 2026Marvell disclosed an expanded custom chip agreement with Google. Google received a warrant for up to 59.0 million Marvell shares at $206.58 per share. Most of these shares vest only as Google buys custom products, one part for each $500 million of revenue, through fiscal 2033. Management said the added programs bring more revenue from fiscal 2029 onward.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 2, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
December 1, 2026, as the company confirmed.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1835632)

Risks

  • Marvell's revenue depends on a small number of large customers. In the quarter that ended August 1, 2026, one distributor gave 44% of revenue and one direct customer gave 16%. If one of them moves its next chip generation in-house or to a competitor, Marvell's growth outlook can fall quickly.
  • Marvell plans to buy Lumentum with new shares, and Lumentum holders will own about 33% of the combined company. The deal needs the approval of the stockholders of both companies and of regulators, and the closing is expected only in the first half of 2028. If the deal fails for certain regulatory reasons, Marvell must pay Lumentum $3.2 billion.
  • Marvell competes with Broadcom, which has a larger and more established custom chip business. Marvell must keep winning new programs to grow at the pace management has guided.
  • Marvell does not own the factories that make its chips. TSMC is its only source of wafers on the most advanced processes. A capacity shortage at its manufacturing partners can delay Marvell's own product ramps.

Balance sheet

Cash
$3.9B
Debt
$5.0B
Net debt
$1.1B
Interest cover
7.0×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$1.5B
undrawn, to June 2030

Cash against debt

Cash$3.9B
Debt$5.0B

debt covered by cashnet debt $1.1B

When the debt is due

12 months$0.0M
Later$5.0B

Credit ratings

  • Moody's Baa2
  • S&P BBB
  • Fitch BBB+

Marvell has modest debt for its size, all unsecured fixed-rate senior notes. Its bigger cost to shareholders is more likely dilution than interest, because some items do not show as debt.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
0.1% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
0.1% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $168.80)
Paid per share
$0.24 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$0.24 ($0.06 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
8% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended January 31, 2026)
Latest ex-dividend date
October 9, 2026, $0.06 per share

Dividends per share by year

Marvell Technology dividends per share by year
2016
$0.24
2017
$0.24
2018
$0.24
2019
$0.24
2020
$0.24
2021
$0.18
2022
$0.24
2023
$0.24
2024
$0.24
2025
$0.24

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 0.0% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 0.0% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Marvell Technology

What does Marvell Technology do?

Marvell designs chips that move, switch and store data, mostly in data centers. About 70% of its fiscal 2026 revenue came from connectivity chips, such as optical interconnect, network switching and storage chips. Its market cap is $148B at the current price of $168.80.

When does Marvell Technology report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on December 1, 2026. It last reported results on August 27, 2026.

Is Marvell Technology stock below its intrinsic value?

Marvell Technology stock is far below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Marvell Technology?

The latest update is from November 2, 2026. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum, a maker of lasers, optical transceivers and optical circuit switches, in an all-stock deal.

What are the main risks for Marvell Technology?

Marvell's revenue depends on a small number of large customers. Marvell plans to buy Lumentum with new shares, and Lumentum holders will own about 33% of the combined company. Marvell competes with Broadcom, which has a larger and more established custom chip business.

How much debt and cash does Marvell Technology have?

At August 1, 2026, Marvell Technology had $5.0B of debt and $3.9B of cash.

Does Marvell Technology pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Marvell Technology is $0.24 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.1% at the current price of $168.80. The latest ex-dividend date was October 9, 2026.

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