Carlyle

Carlyle is a global investment firm that manages private capital for pension funds, insurers, sovereign funds and wealthy individuals. It had $479 billion of assets under management at September 30, 2026, of which $330 billion earned fees. It reports three segments: Global Private Equity ($160.7 billion of assets), Global Credit ($207.3 billion) and Carlyle AlpInvest, its secondaries and co-investment business ($110.5 billion). Carlyle earns management fees on the capital in its funds, and these fees are steady because most funds lock up capital for many years.

It also earns transaction and capital markets fees, and a share of fund profits (carried interest) when the funds sell investments at a gain. Carried interest is large but irregular, because it depends on when the funds can sell companies. Carlyle pays a fixed dividend of $0.35 per share each quarter and buys back shares.

The market prices Carlyle at a discount because it doubts that private markets can keep growing at the old pace. Three fears hold the price down. First, investors fear losses and redemptions in private credit, Carlyle's largest segment: in February 2026, Blue Owl stopped redemptions in a fund and private credit stocks fell, and loans to software companies lost value in 2026 because investors fear that AI will hurt these borrowers. Second, carried interest is irregular: in Q1 2026, distributable earnings fell 28% because realized carry fell 84%, even with many fund exits.

Third, the raise of its next flagship US buyout fund is at an early stage, and management expects no major closes until later in the cycle. For the gap to close, Carlyle must stay on the path to its 2028 targets, set in February 2026: fee-related earnings of $1.9 billion or more, distributable earnings of $6.00 or more per share, and more than $200 billion of inflows from 2026 to 2028. The checks are growth in fee-related earnings from $1.236 billion in 2025, inflows near $50 billion a year or more, steady realized carry, and low credit losses with redemptions in the wealth credit funds below their caps. The Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026 failed the first check: fee-related earnings fell 6% to $292.6 million and inflows were $10.8 billion, down from $16.8 billion in Q2, although distributable earnings rose 17% on higher realized carry.

The full-year 2026 report, estimated for about February 5, 2027, gives a full year of evidence. If fundraising, carry and credit hold, the gap can close over 2027 and 2028. The main reason it may not close is a credit cycle that raises losses in private credit and slows fund exits.

1. Nov 5, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 results: fees, inflows and carryFee-related earnings that grow from a year earlier and inflows near the $16.8 billion of Q2 2026 pass; a fall in fee-related earnings or rising credit losses fail.Outcome: Fee-related earnings fell 6% to $292.6 million and inflows were only $10.8 billion, although distributable earnings rose 17%.
2. Feb 5, 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results: progress to 2028 targetsFee-related earnings clearly above the $1.236 billion of 2025 and distributable earnings per share above the $4.02 of 2025 pass; flat fee-related earnings or a cut to the 2028 targets fail.
3. 2027 · est.Pending

   Flagship US buyout fund raiseA first close of the next US buyout fund near the size of the previous fund passes; a smaller fund or a long delay fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 5, 2026Carlyle reported Q3 2026 results. Distributable earnings rose 17% to $432.5 million, because realized carried interest rose. Fee-related earnings fell 6% to $292.6 million. Inflows were $10.8 billion in the quarter and $49.8 billion over 12 months. Assets under management were $479 billion, down from $485 billion at June 30, 2026. Carlyle bought back 2.6 million shares for $125.0 million and kept the dividend at $0.35 per share.
• October 16, 2026Truist said that on October 14, 2026, it agreed to sell $7.7 billion of LightStream unsecured consumer loans to Carlyle. The loans are mostly fixed-rate loans to prime and super-prime borrowers. Carlyle's asset-backed finance team in its Global Credit platform leads the purchase, and Truist expects the sale to close in Q4 2026.
• October 5, 2026Carlyle said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026, before a conference call at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Last earnings

November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 6, 2026 · cg-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 5, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 10, 2026 · cg-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 5, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled June 5, 2026 · cg-20260603
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled June 1, 2026 · cg-20260601
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 8, 2026 · cg-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled May 7, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 27, 2026 · cg-20251231
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled February 26, 2026 · cg-20260226

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1527166)

• Private credit is Carlyle's largest segment, with $207.3 billion of assets at September 30, 2026. If defaults rise, for example among software borrowers that AI can hurt, fund returns, fees and new inflows can fall. Withdrawals from wealth funds that offer regular redemptions can also slow growth, as at Blue Owl in February 2026.
• Carried interest depends on fund exits at a gain, and the timing is irregular. In Q1 2026, realized carry fell 84% from a year earlier and distributable earnings fell 28%. Weak markets for sales and IPOs can delay carry for several quarters.
• The 2028 targets need more than $200 billion of inflows from 2026 to 2028. Carlyle's next flagship US buyout fund is at an early stage, and management said no major closes are expected until later in the cycle. A slow raise lowers fee growth.
• Carlyle invests in AI, technology and its wealth business. Management said that this spending can delay the rise in the margin on fee-related earnings to 2027 or 2028.
• Carlyle's revenue depends on fund values, which move with stock and credit markets, interest rates and energy prices. A war or an energy shock can lower fund values and slow deals.

Carlyle has little debt for its size, and its main assets are its stakes in its own funds and the carried interest it has earned but not yet received. Debt at September 30, 2026 was $2,675 million of senior and subordinated notes, due in 2029, 2035, 2043, 2048 and 2061, and $370 million of borrowings of CLOs that Carlyle consolidates. Read more

Yield at the current rate

3.4% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

2.6% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $41.12)

Paid per share

$1.05 in the last 12 months (3 payments)

Current annual rate

$1.40 ($0.35 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

64% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

August 17, 2026, $0.35 per share

Fewer payments or a raise. The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend.

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 7.0% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 8.5% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.