Alphabet

Alphabet owns Google. Google Search and YouTube sell advertising. This is most of Alphabet's profit today.

Google Cloud rents computing power and AI tools to other companies, for a fee. Alphabet also owns Waymo, a self-driving car company, and other early-stage projects.

The market prices Alphabet at a discount for two reasons. It fears AI chatbots will pull clicks away from Google Search. It also fears antitrust rulings could force costly changes to its ad business. Heavy AI infrastructure spending adds to the worry, since investors are not yet sure it will earn a good return.

Alphabet now also pays for this spending with new debt and new shares. For the gap to close, Google Cloud must keep growing fast. Search ad revenue must also keep growing even as AI-generated answers appear next to results. A US judge ruled in September 2026 that Google will not have to sell its ad exchange or ad server, only follow new auction rules.

This removes the risk of a forced breakup in the US, but Google said it will appeal the liability ruling. In the EU, the Commission still says that only a sale of part of the ad business can fix the problem, and it fined Google under the Digital Markets Act in July 2026. The Q3 2026 report of October 28, 2026 showed Cloud revenue growth of 103% and Search revenue growth of 12%. But capital spending of $51.4 billion was more than operating cash flow, so free cash flow was negative for a second quarter.

The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, should give the 2027 capital spending plan. If Cloud and Search growth hold through early 2027, and the antitrust remedies do not cut ad revenue much, the discount can close over the next two to four quarters.

1. Oct 28, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results: Cloud growth, Search ads and capexGoogle Cloud growth near the Q2 pace of 82% and continued Search ad growth pass; a sharp Cloud slowdown or falling Search revenue fails.Outcome: Cloud revenue grew 103% and Search & other revenue grew 12%, but free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion.
2. Q4 2026 · est.Due this quarter

   Final judgment and appeals in the US ad tech caseA final judgment that keeps the no-divestiture remedy, with no government appeal that asks again for a sale of AdX or DFP, passes; a government appeal that asks for a forced sale fails.
3. Dec 2026 · est.Pending

   Appeals court hearing in the US search caseA ruling that keeps the 2025 remedies or narrows them, with default-search payments still allowed, passes; a ruling that bans those payments fails.
4. Jan 28, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 capital spending planCloud and Search growth that hold into early 2027 with capex that cash flow can mostly fund passes; a slowdown with still higher capex and more share issuance fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 5, 2026Alphabet closed a sale of €6 billion of euro notes in seven parts, from floating rate notes due 2028 to 5.250% notes due 2045.
• October 28, 2026Alphabet reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 25% to $127.6 billion. Google Cloud revenue grew 103% to $30.7 billion, and Cloud operating income was $11.1 billion. Google Search & other revenue grew 12% to $63.4 billion. Operating income grew 30% to $40.6 billion. A $8.7 billion loss on equity securities cut net income to $26.5 billion and diluted EPS to $2.12. Capital spending was $51.4 billion and operating cash flow was $42.3 billion, so free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. In the quarter, Alphabet sold $12.4 billion of new shares through its at-the-market program and $28.7 billion of notes. It bought back no shares.
• October 26, 2026Anthropic filed for its initial public offering. Its S-1 shows that it committed to spend at least $114.5 billion with Google between April 2026 and July 2033, and it expects to buy about $125-150 billion more of TPU compute from 2028 to 2031. Google put $10 billion into Anthropic's Series H round. Google's stake is limited to 14.99%, and Google has an option to buy up to $10 billion of stock at the IPO price.

Last earnings

October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 8-KOther company newsFiled November 5, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 29, 2026 · goog-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 28, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 10, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 23, 2026 · goog-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 22, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled June 11, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KNew material agreement and Change to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled June 5, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled June 5, 2026 · goog-20260602
• 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled June 4, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1652044)

• Google Cloud's growth depends on continued heavy AI spending by Alphabet and by its customers. If AI infrastructure spending slows, Cloud growth can slow with it.
• AI chatbots and AI-generated answers could reduce the number of clicks on search ads over time. This effect is hard to measure today, since search ad revenue is still growing.
• Alphabet's capital spending is now more than its operating cash flow. In Q3 2026, capital spending was $51.4 billion and operating cash flow was $42.3 billion. Alphabet pays for the difference with new notes and new shares. If the AI spending does not earn a good return, the new shares dilute owners for no gain.
• Antitrust cases continue on many fronts. Google will appeal the US ad tech ruling, and the US search case is on appeal, where the government asks for a ban on default-search payments. The EU can still order a sale of part of the ad business, and it fined Google 890 million euros under the Digital Markets Act in July 2026. Publishers also seek more than $3.2 billion in damages in New York.

Alphabet has more cash than debt, but it now uses outside capital to pay for its AI build-out. The reason is spending: capital expenditure of $132.0 billion in the first nine months of 2026 was more than operating cash flow of $127.1 billion. Read more

Yield at the current rate

0.3% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $293.45)

Paid per share

$0.86 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$0.88 ($0.22 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

8% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 4, 2026, $0.22 per share

Dividends per share by year

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.