PayPal

PayPal runs online payment services for consumers and merchants in about 200 markets. Its main products are PayPal branded checkout, the Venmo app for payments between people and to merchants, and Braintree, which processes card payments for large merchants without the PayPal brand. PayPal earns a fee on most payments, and branded checkout earns a higher margin than unbranded processing.

It also earns interest on customer balances and on its buy now, pay later and other loans, and it sells PayPal and Venmo debit and credit cards. In Q3 2026, it processed $487.1 billion of payments and had 440 million active accounts. Since April 2026, it runs three businesses: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto.

The market fears that PayPal's most profitable business, branded checkout, will keep losing share. Apple Pay, Shop Pay and other wallets compete at the online checkout, and AI shopping agents, such as Meta's Muse, can move the purchase decision away from the PayPal button. Profit growth stays slow. In Q3 2026, transaction margin dollars grew 2%, or 3% excluding interest on customer balances, the same rate as in Q2 2026.

Active accounts were almost flat at 440 million. PayPal named Enrique Lores CEO in February 2026, and he started a reorganization that targets at least $1.5 billion of gross annual savings within two to three years, so investors also wait to see whether the turnaround plan works. The Q3 report showed first progress: non-GAAP EPS grew 8%, the non-GAAP operating margin rose slightly, and PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60 from about $5.38. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances must grow faster than 3%, with branded checkout stable or growing. PayPal must reach its 2026 guidance and give a 2027 outlook with EPS growth while it keeps share buybacks near $1.5 billion a quarter. Venmo must keep growing its revenue, and PayPal must win a share of payments that AI agents make, as with its Meta Muse checkout deal of September 2026. The Q4 report with the 2027 outlook, expected in late January or early February 2027, is the next test.

Because the fear of share loss to wallets and AI agents fades only with years of steady checkout growth, the gap can close only slowly.

1. Oct 27, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 results: checkout and transaction marginTransaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances that grow faster than the 3% of Q2 and a 2026 EPS guidance kept near $5.38 pass; slower growth or a lower guidance fails.Outcome: Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances grew 3%, not faster than in Q2, so the growth test failed, although PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60.
2. Jan 27, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with growth in non-GAAP EPS and transaction margin dollars passes; another year of falling margins fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 27, 2026PayPal reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 2% to $8.6 billion, and payment volume rose 6% to $487.1 billion. Transaction margin dollars rose 2% to $4.0 billion, and 3% excluding interest on customer balances. GAAP EPS fell 4% to $1.25, and non-GAAP EPS rose 8% to $1.45. Active accounts rose 0.6% to 440 million. Buybacks were $1.5 billion. PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60 from about $5.38.
• October 27, 2026PayPal's Q3 2026 10-Q said that a global workforce reduction in Q3 2026 cost $152 million of restructuring charges and should save about $340 million of employee costs a year. It also said that the April 2026 reorganization should give at least $1.5 billion of gross annual savings over the next two to three years, and that PayPal will put a large part of the savings back into growth.
• October 5, 2026Venmo said that its credit card now pays up to 4% cash back on purchases that users split with friends.

Last earnings

October 27, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 27, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 27, 2026 · pypl-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 27, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 28, 2026 · pypl-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 28, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled May 21, 2026 · pypl-20260519
• 8-KOther company newsFiled May 15, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 5, 2026 · pypl-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled May 5, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled April 30, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled March 25, 2026 · pypl-20260320

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1633917)

• Apple Pay, Shop Pay and other wallets compete with PayPal branded checkout, which earns PayPal's highest margin. If PayPal keeps losing share at the online checkout, its profits can fall.
• AI shopping agents from large technology companies can choose the payment method for the user. If these agents favor other wallets or take a fee, PayPal's role and margin at checkout can shrink.
• A new CEO, a new structure and many leadership changes in 2026 bring execution risk. A workforce reduction in Q3 2026 cost $152 million of restructuring charges, and the turnaround can bring more charges and job cuts before growth returns.
• PayPal holds buy now, pay later and other consumer loans. A weaker consumer can raise loan losses and reduce payment volume.

PayPal has more cash and investments than debt. At September 30, 2026, cash, cash equivalents and investments were $15.1 billion. Read more

Yield at the current rate

0.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $59.48)

Paid per share

$0.56 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$0.56 ($0.14 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

3% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 4, 2026, $0.14 per share

Dividends per share by year

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.