MGMCasinos & resorts
MGM Resorts International
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $33.47
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $8.5B
- Shares of Oct 26, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.9
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $2.60
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $26.71 – $51.59
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.35
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 4.6M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices MGM for weak Las Vegas results and the end of a buyout proposal from its largest shareholder, and higher room rates, stable Macau margins and buybacks over two to three years can close the gap.
- Gap
- Slow. Without a new transaction, the gap closes only through several years of growth in Las Vegas and Macau and smaller digital losses.
Price history
About
MGM Resorts International owns and operates casino resorts. On the Las Vegas Strip, its resorts include Aria, Bellagio, The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas and MGM Grand Las Vegas. It also operates regional casinos in other states, and it controls MGM China, which runs casino resorts in Macau. MGM Digital runs online gaming outside North America through LeoVegas, and MGM owns 50% of BetMGM, which offers online betting and gaming in North America.
MGM leases the real estate of many of its resorts from VICI Properties and other owners, so it pays large rents. With a partner, it builds MGM Osaka, an integrated resort in Japan that it expects to open in 2030. People Inc., formerly IAC, owns about 26.5% of MGM's shares.
Thesis
The market prices MGM for weak results and for the end of a buyout proposal. On June 1, 2026, IAC, now People Inc., proposed to buy all other shares for $48.30 per share in cash, and on September 23, 2026, it withdrew the proposal. In Q3 2026, RevPAR on the Las Vegas Strip fell 8% on lower room rates, and Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 12%. MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 7% because it paid a higher branding fee, and consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell to $403 million from $506 million.
MGM also has large lease payments. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Las Vegas Strip room rates and EBITDAR must grow again. MGM said that October 2026 rebounded.
MGM China must keep its margins while it pays the higher branding fee. MGM Digital must keep its losses small, and MGM must use the $1.4 billion left under its plan to repurchase shares. On October 27, 2026, People Inc. agreed to stay at or below 29.9% of the shares and to vote with the board on a change of control, and MGM said that this supports share repurchases. No transaction is contemplated.
The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January or early February 2027, gives the next evidence. The gap closes slowly, over two to three years, unless a transaction comes. The main reason it may not close is weak demand in Las Vegas, which would lower room rates and gaming revenue.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026FailedQ3 2026 earnings: Las Vegas and MacauGrowth in Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR and stable MGM China margins pass; a fall in Las Vegas EBITDAR fails.Outcome: Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 12% on lower room rates, and MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 7%.
- Jan 28, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 earnings: Las Vegas recovery and digital lossesGrowth in Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR, smaller MGM Digital losses and continued share repurchases pass; another fall in Las Vegas EBITDAR or a stop to repurchases fails.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026MGM reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $4.2 billion, down 1%. Las Vegas Strip revenue fell 2% to $2.0 billion, RevPAR fell 8%, and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 12% to $531 million. MGM China revenue rose 5% to a record $1.1 billion, but its Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 7% to $264 million, as its branding fee to MGM rose by $22 million. The MGM Digital loss fell to $4 million of Segment Adjusted EBITDAR from $23 million. Adjusted EPS was a loss of $0.11, compared with a profit of $0.24 a year earlier. MGM said that October 2026 rebounded in Las Vegas.
- October 28, 2026MGM said in its Q3 2026 10-Q, filed on October 28, 2026, that it put JPY 19.4 billion, about $123 million, into MGM Osaka in October 2026. It has committed JPY 428 billion, and about JPY 333 billion, or $2.1 billion, remained to fund at September 30, 2026.
- October 27, 2026MGM amended its voting agreement with People Inc. and Barry Diller, and it announced the change on October 28. People Inc. agreed not to buy shares that would take its group above 29.9% of MGM's shares. On a change of control, it will vote all its shares as the board recommends, subject to conditions. MGM agreed not to take defensive measures against People Inc. while it complies. MGM said that no transaction is contemplated. People Inc. owns about 26.5% of MGM's shares.
Show 5 older eventsHide older events
- September 23, 2026People Inc., formerly IAC, withdrew its non-binding proposal to buy all MGM shares that it does not own. It said that it remains open to a strategic transaction with MGM. It owns about 26.5% of MGM's shares.
- July 29, 2026MGM reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $4.5 billion, up 1%. Las Vegas Strip revenue rose 3% to $2.2 billion, while RevPAR fell 4%. MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 15% to $257 million, and MGM Digital recorded a goodwill impairment of $111 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.59, compared with $0.79 a year earlier. In April 2026, MGM sold the operations of MGM Northfield Park for $546 million, and its annual rent to VICI fell by $53 million.
- June 1, 2026IAC proposed to buy all MGM shares that it did not own for $48.30 per share in cash. The proposal was non-binding.
- May 13, 2026MGM China Holdings sold $750 million of 6.25% senior notes due 2033.
- April 3, 2026MGM signed a voting agreement with IAC and Barry Diller. When they own more than 25.73% of MGM's voting power, they vote the extra shares in the same proportion as the other shareholders.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mgm-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled · mgm-20261027
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · mgm-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · mgm-20260506
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · mgm-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreementFiled · mgm-20260403
Risks
- Las Vegas depends on travel and consumer spending. RevPAR on the Las Vegas Strip fell 8% in Q3 2026, and Las Vegas Strip Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 12%. Weaker demand can lower room rates and gaming revenue further.
- MGM pays large rents for the resorts that it leases. Operating lease liabilities were $23.86 billion at September 30, 2026. These fixed payments make earnings fall fast when revenue falls.
- Macau results depend on China's economy and rules. MGM China's Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 7% in Q3 2026, partly because its branding fee to MGM rose by $22 million.
- MGM Digital loses money. Its Segment Adjusted EBITDAR loss was $61 million in the first nine months of 2026, and MGM recorded a goodwill impairment of $111 million for it in Q2 2026. More losses or write-downs are possible.
- MGM must still fund about JPY333 billion (about $2.1 billion) of its commitment to MGM Osaka at September 30, 2026, and it guarantees funding for the completion of the resort without a cap. Higher building costs can need more cash.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $2.4B
- Debt
- $5.7B
- Net debt
- $3.3B
- Interest cover
- 3.0×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $2.3B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $3.3B
At September 30, 2026, debt principal was $5.70 billion, and cash was $2.40 billion. In September 2026, MGM repaid its $400 million of 4.625% notes due 2026 with cash on hand. MGM China holds $2.33 billion of the debt and $598 million of the cash. Its debt includes notes due from 2027 to 2033 and $331 million drawn on its revolving credit facility. The rest of the debt includes MGM's notes due from 2027 to 2036 and a senior secured yen credit facility of $344 million. No amounts were drawn on MGM's $2.3 billion revolving credit facility. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. That operating income includes a net gain of $265 million on property transactions. Operating lease liabilities, mostly for resorts leased from VICI Properties, were $23.86 billion more.
Dividends
MGM Resorts International does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about MGM Resorts International
What does MGM Resorts International do?
MGM Resorts International owns and operates casino resorts. On the Las Vegas Strip, its resorts include Aria, Bellagio, The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas and MGM Grand Las Vegas. Its market cap is $8.5B at the current price of $33.47.
When does MGM Resorts International report earnings next?
This is an estimate: MGM Resorts International may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is MGM Resorts International stock below its intrinsic value?
MGM Resorts International stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at MGM Resorts International?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. MGM reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for MGM Resorts International?
Las Vegas depends on travel and consumer spending. MGM pays large rents for the resorts that it leases. Macau results depend on China's economy and rules.
How much debt and cash does MGM Resorts International have?
At September 30, 2026, MGM Resorts International had $5.7B of debt and $2.4B of cash.
Does MGM Resorts International pay a dividend?
No. MGM Resorts International does not pay a dividend.
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