MDLZPackaged foods & snacks
Mondelez
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $66.70
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $84B
- Shares of Oct 26, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 3.1%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.0%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.0
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $3.18
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $51.20 – $68.75
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.36
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 7.7M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Mondelez's profit fell after the cocoa spike and its European volumes fell, and the gap closes if lower cocoa costs and growing volumes, first seen in Q3 2026, lift profit in 2027.
- Gap
- Can close. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 shows whether lower cocoa costs bring back profit growth.
Company guidance: Adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5% (constant currency) and Organic Net Revenue growth of at least 2% for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Mondelez International makes and sells snacks in more than 150 countries. Its main products are biscuits and baked snacks, such as Oreo, Ritz, LU and Clif Bar, and chocolate, such as Cadbury Dairy Milk and Milka. It also sells gum, candy and some meals and beverages. It reports four regions: Europe, North America, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East and Africa.
Net revenues were about $38.5 billion in 2025, and Europe was the largest region, with $3.55 billion of the $9.97 billion of Q3 2026 net revenues. Mondelez makes money from the margin between its prices and the cost of raw materials such as cocoa, sugar, wheat and dairy. Emerging markets gave about 41% of net revenues in Q3 2026.
Thesis
The market discounts Mondelez because its profit fell after the cocoa price spike, and the recovery comes slowly. Mondelez raised chocolate prices sharply in 2025, and volumes fell, most of all in Europe. In Q2 2026, Europe's organic net revenue fell 3.5%, with volume and mix down 2.1%. Adjusted EPS fell 8.8% in constant currency in the first half of 2026, and the 2026 guidance is flat to 5% growth.
The recovery started in Q3 2026. Lower raw material costs and productivity raised the adjusted gross margin by 3.8 points to 34.2%, adjusted EPS grew 5.5% in constant currency, and Europe's volume and mix grew 1.6% after Mondelez cut prices there. The CEO also said in February 2026 that low consumer confidence limits volume growth in North America. For the gap to close, Mondelez must show that cheaper cocoa keeps reaching its margins in 2027, that European volumes keep growing, and that adjusted EPS grows again for the full year.
The main test is the full-year report in early 2027, with the 2027 outlook and the cocoa cost for 2027. If the 2027 outlook shows margin recovery, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If cocoa prices rise again or volumes fall again, the gap can last longer.
Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: Europe volumes and adjusted EPSAdjusted EPS that is flat or up in constant currency and a smaller fall in European volume pass; another fall in adjusted EPS or a cut to the 2026 outlook fails.Outcome: Adjusted EPS grew 5.5% in constant currency, European volume and mix grew 1.6%, and Mondelez kept its 2026 outlook.
- Jan 29, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with adjusted EPS growth from lower cocoa costs passes; an outlook of flat or lower adjusted EPS fails.
Recent events
- October 29, 2026Mondelez reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenues grew 2.3% to $9.97 billion, and organic net revenue grew 2.1%, with volume and mix up 1.8%. Adjusted EPS was $0.78, up 5.5% in constant currency, and the adjusted gross margin rose 3.8 points to 34.2% on lower raw material costs. In Europe, volume and mix grew 1.6%, but organic net revenue fell 2.1% because prices fell 3.7 points. Mondelez kept its 2026 outlook of at least 2% organic revenue growth and flat to 5% adjusted EPS growth.
- October 29, 2026Mondelez agreed to buy a majority stake in Undercover Snacks, a US maker of quinoa crisp snacks. It did not give the price. The deal is to close in the first quarter of 2027, after regulatory approval.
- October 15, 2026Mondelez said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, at 4:05 p.m. ET, after the market closes.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- July 28, 2026Mondelez reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenues grew 4.1% to $9.36 billion, and organic net revenue grew 2.2%. Adjusted EPS was $0.73, down 2.7% in constant currency. Europe's organic net revenue fell 3.5%. Mondelez raised its 2026 organic revenue outlook to at least 2% growth, kept its adjusted EPS outlook of flat to 5% growth, and raised its quarterly dividend by 4%.
- June 15, 2026Mondelez appointed Amit Banati, the former CFO of Kenvue and Kellanova, as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 1, 2026. Luca Zaramella, the former CFO, stays as Chief Operating Officer.
- May 20, 2026At the annual meeting, shareholders re-elected all 10 directors, including CEO Dirk Van de Put as chair. They rejected a proposal for an independent board chair, with about 31% of the votes cast in favor.
- April 28, 2026Mondelez reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenues grew 8.2% to $10.08 billion, and organic net revenue grew 3.0%, with volume and mix down 0.5%. Adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 14.9% in constant currency.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mdlz-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · mdlz-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · mdlz-20260615
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · mdlz-20260520
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · mdlz-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and End of a material agreementFiled · mdlz-20260218
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · mdlz-20251231
Risks
- Cocoa is a main cost of the chocolate business, and its price changes a lot. Lower raw material costs lifted the adjusted gross margin in Q3 2026, but cocoa prices change a lot. If cocoa prices rise again before Mondelez buys for 2027, the margin recovery can stop.
- Higher prices reduced volumes, most of all in Europe, where organic net revenue fell 3.5% in Q2 2026. In Q3 2026, European volume grew again, but only after Mondelez cut prices by 3.7 points, so Europe's organic net revenue still fell 2.1%. Retailers and private-label products compete on price. If volumes do not keep growing, revenue growth stays slow.
- Consumers in North America have low confidence and look for lower prices, as the CEO said in February 2026. Weak demand limits volume growth in the second-largest region.
- Mondelez sells in many emerging markets, including Argentina, Türkiye, Egypt and Nigeria, which have high inflation. A strong US dollar lowers the value of foreign sales, and trade changes, such as tariffs on US-Mexico-Canada trade, can raise costs.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.6B
- Debt
- $21.7B
- Net debt
- $20.1B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.9×
- EBITDA $6.9B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 10×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $6.0B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $20.1B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
Mondelez funds itself with unsecured notes of the parent company, in US dollars, euros and other currencies, and with commercial paper. At September 30, 2026, debt was $16.35 billion of long-term debt, $1.74 billion of current long-term debt and $3.65 billion of short-term borrowings, which was mostly $3.61 billion of commercial paper at 3.5%. EBITDA is GAAP operating income plus depreciation and amortization for the 12 months to September 30, 2026, from the 10-Q and the 2025 10-K; it includes gains from mark-to-market changes of commodity and currency hedges, which change a lot from quarter to quarter. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense of $439 million for the first nine months of 2026. Undrawn credit is a $4.5 billion revolving facility to February 2030 and a $1.5 billion 364-day facility due February 17, 2027. They support the commercial paper program. These facilities require shareholders' equity of at least $25.0 billion, on a defined basis. In the first nine months of 2026, Mondelez bought back about $874 million of shares under a $9.0 billion program that runs to December 2027. In total, it returned $2.8 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks in that period. It expects free cash flow of about $3 billion in 2026.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.1% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $66.70)
- Paid per share
- $2.02 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $2.08 ($0.52 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 103% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 30, 2026, $0.52 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.72 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.82 | |
| 2018 | $0.96 | |
| 2019 | $1.09 | |
| 2020 | $1.20 | |
| 2021 | $1.33 | |
| 2022 | $1.47 | |
| 2023 | $1.62 | |
| 2024 | $1.79 | |
| 2025 | $1.94 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 10.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 11.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Mondelez
What does Mondelez do?
Mondelez International makes and sells snacks in more than 150 countries. Its main products are biscuits and baked snacks, such as Oreo, Ritz, LU and Clif Bar, and chocolate, such as Cadbury Dairy Milk and Milka. Its market cap is $84B at the current price of $66.70.
When does Mondelez report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Mondelez may report on January 29, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.
Is Mondelez stock below its intrinsic value?
Mondelez stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Mondelez?
The latest update is from October 29, 2026. Mondelez reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Mondelez?
Cocoa is a main cost of the chocolate business, and its price changes a lot. Higher prices reduced volumes, most of all in Europe, where organic net revenue fell 3.5% in Q2 2026. Consumers in North America have low confidence and look for lower prices, as the CEO said in February 2026.
How much debt and cash does Mondelez have?
At September 30, 2026, Mondelez had $21.7B of debt and $1.6B of cash.
Does Mondelez pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Mondelez is $2.08 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.1% at the current price of $66.70. In the last 12 months, it paid $2.02 per share (3.0%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.
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