Yum! Brands

Yum! Brands owns KFC, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill. After it sold Pizza Hut in 2026, it has more than 44,000 restaurants in 151 countries. Franchisees run almost all of them.

Yum makes most of its money from franchise fees and royalties, which are a percentage of each restaurant's sales. So franchisees pay most of the cost to build and run the stores. KFC is the biggest brand, with 35,421 restaurants on September 30, 2026, and about 90% of them are outside the US. KFC also makes the most profit: $1.5 billion of division operating profit in 2025, against $1.1 billion for Taco Bell.

Most Taco Bell restaurants are in the US. Yum also builds its own restaurant software, called Byte by Yum!, for ordering, kitchens, and delivery. Digital orders were 64% of system sales in Q3 2026, not counting Pizza Hut.

Yum Brands trades at a discount because a large Cyclospora outbreak at Taco Bell in July 2026 raised doubt about how fast the brand recovers. State health officials called it the largest US Cyclospora outbreak on record, with 12,883 cases. Taco Bell makes about 43% of Yum's division profit without Pizza Hut. In Q3 2026, Taco Bell US same-store sales fell 4%, and Taco Bell division operating profit fell 5%.

Higher interest rates add a second pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 4% in February 2026 to above 5% from mid-September 2026, and this lowers the price investors pay for steady franchise royalties. Yum also carries about $11.6 billion of below-investment-grade debt. KFC is the larger profit engine and was not affected by the outbreak, but its same-store sales grew only 1% in Q3 2026, while its units grew 7%.

For the gap to close, Taco Bell US same-store sales must turn positive again by Q1 2027. KFC unit growth must stay at 5% or more. Yum must refinance about $1.6 billion of debt that matures in 2027 at a reasonable cost, while it uses the Pizza Hut proceeds for buybacks. In the Q3 report on November 3, 2026, Yum said that Taco Bell US has done better than the fast-food industry in same-store sales since the end of September, but it did not say that these sales were positive.

The next tests are the refinancing before March 2, 2027, and the Q4 report, expected in early February 2027. If Taco Bell recovers on that path, the discount can close over the next two to four quarters. The main risk is that customer trust returns more slowly than the outbreak ended, while low-income customers cut back and competitors fight on price.

1. Sep 1, 2026Passed

   Pizza Hut sale to LongRange Capital completesClosing of both Pizza Hut sales with about $2.3 billion of net proceeds passes; a failed or delayed closing fails.Outcome: Yum completed the sale on September 1, 2026, after the Yum China part closed on August 7, for $2.7 billion in total plus an earn-out of up to $75 million.
2. Nov 3, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 results: Taco Bell recovery after the outbreakTaco Bell US same-store sales that improve each month to positive in October, and a Taco Bell US margin within 19% to 21%, pass; a deeper decline or a lower margin fails.Outcome: Taco Bell US same-store sales fell 4% in Q3, more than the 2% decline through July 27, and Yum did not say that October sales were positive, although the US restaurant margin of 20.5% was within the range.
3. Feb 3, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results: Taco Bell US sales trendTaco Bell US same-store sales near zero or positive in Q4 and KFC unit growth of 5% or more pass; another Taco Bell US decline of 2% or more fails.
4. Feb 2027 · est.Pending

   Repay $884 million of securitization notes due February 2027Repaying or refinancing the notes on time at a reasonable rate passes; a missed date, which makes all the securitization notes start to pay down principal early, fails.
5. Mar 2, 2027Pending

   Refinance June 2027 subsidiary notes before springing maturityRepaying or refinancing at least $500 million of the $750 million notes by this date at a reasonable rate passes; a missed date, which makes the Term Loan A and the revolver come due, fails.
6. Apr 2027 · est.Pending

   Q1 2027 results: Taco Bell US same-store sales positivePositive Taco Bell US same-store sales and KFC unit growth of 5% or more pass; negative Taco Bell sales fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 3, 2026Yum reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $5.92, with a pre-tax gain of about $1.7 billion on the Pizza Hut sales, and EPS without special items fell 1% to $1.56. Without Pizza Hut, units grew 7% and core operating profit grew 1%. KFC same-store sales grew 1%, and KFC division operating profit grew 9%. Taco Bell US same-store sales fell 4%, Taco Bell division operating profit fell 5%, and the margin of Taco Bell's own US restaurants was 20.5%. Yum said that Taco Bell US has done better than the fast-food industry in same-store sales since the end of September. It returned $1.8 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026.
• September 17, 2026Third-party foot-traffic data (Placer.ai) showed Taco Bell US visits per restaurant down 12.2% from a year earlier, on average, from July 6 to September 11, 2026. This average includes the worst days of the outbreak. On July 17, visits were about 31% below the average for the same weekday from January 1 to July 6. The data does not show the level in mid-September.
• September 11, 2026The CDC declared the Cyclospora outbreak over. It counted 12,883 illnesses in 21 states, 570 hospitalizations, and 2 deaths. The source was processed iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms de Mexico. State health officials and news reports called it the largest US Cyclospora outbreak on record.

Last earnings

November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 6, 2026 · yum-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 3, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled September 1, 2026 · yum-20260901
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled August 21, 2026 · yum-20260820
• 8-KNew material agreement and Acquisition or sale completedFiled August 7, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 5, 2026 · yum-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 30, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KNew material agreement and Other company newsFiled June 16, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled June 16, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled June 2, 2026 · yum-20260528

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1041061)

• Taco Bell makes about 43% of Yum's division profit without Pizza Hut. The July 2026 Cyclospora outbreak pushed its US same-store sales down 4% in Q3 2026, and the margin of its own US restaurants fell to 20.5% from 26.2% in Q2. If customers stay away longer than expected, Yum's profit growth slows. Several proposed class-action lawsuits also add legal costs.
• Higher interest rates lower the price investors pay for steady franchise royalties. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 4% in February 2026 to above 5% in September 2026. The direct cost is small, because about 96% of Yum's debt, not counting the revolver, had a fixed rate at June 30, 2026, after swaps.
• Yum had about $11.6 billion of debt at September 30, 2026, with a below-investment-grade credit rating (BB+ at S&P, Ba2 at Moody's). It targets net debt of about 4 times EBITDA. About $1.6 billion matures in 2027: $884 million of securitization notes at 1.95% in February and $750 million of notes at 4.75% in June. Refinancing will cost more. If Yum does not refinance most of its June 2027 notes by March 2, 2027, its Term Loan A and its revolver also come due early.
• Lower-income customers are cutting back on fast food, and competitors such as McDonald's and Burger King push low-price deals. Weight-loss drugs such as GLP-1s can also reduce how much people eat out. These trends can slow traffic and lower prices at Taco Bell.
• KFC same-store sales grew only 1% in Q3 2026, and KFC US system sales fell 6% without currency effects. In 2026, Yum stopped reporting KFC US and international same-store sales separately. KFC's growth depends more and more on new stores outside the US, and China is about 26% of KFC system sales.
• Yum has a new CEO and a new CFO since October 2025, and its COO was due to step down on November 1, 2026. It still provides its Byte by Yum! software and other services to Pizza Hut after the sale, and a $75 million part of the price depends on Pizza Hut profit targets through 2029.

Yum had a shareholders' deficit of $6.17 billion at September 30, 2026, because for years it has used debt to fund large buybacks and dividends. The debt supports buybacks, but it leaves little room if Taco Bell profit falls, and ratings are below investment grade. Read more

Yield at the current rate

1.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

1.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $160.21)

Paid per share

$2.96 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$3.00 ($0.75 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

51% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 9, 2026, $0.75 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 8.6% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 8.9% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.