By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $15.93
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 30 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $66B
- Shares of Dec 31, 2025
- Yield at current rate
- 5.9%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 5.9%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- $13.76 – $19.42
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.03
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 3.9M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates, and results on guidance with a new buyback over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The full-year 2026 results with the next buyback in early 2027 show whether returns and capital hold.
Company guidance: Total income excluding notable items of around £17.9 billion and operating expenses of around £8.5 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 Interim Management Statement (6-K))
Price history
About
NatWest Group is one of the largest banks in the United Kingdom, with more than 20 million customers. It has three customer businesses. Retail Banking gives mortgages, loans, current accounts and savings to individuals. Private Banking & Wealth Management serves wealthy clients, and it grew with the purchase of the wealth manager Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026.
Commercial & Institutional serves businesses, from start-ups to large companies, and it is a leader in UK infrastructure and project finance. The group is based in London. Its American Depositary Shares trade in New York.
Thesis
The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates. Much of its income comes from the margin on UK loans and deposits, so lower Bank of England rates and lower mortgage margins can reduce income. The purchase of Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026 cut the CET1 ratio by about 1.4 percentage points to 13.2%, reduced tangible net asset value per share to 359p from 400p at March 31, 2026, and moved the next share buyback to the full-year 2026 results. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
NatWest must reach its 2026 guidance: total income of about £17.9 billion excluding notable items, costs of about £8.5 billion and a return on tangible equity above 19%. Income from its structural hedge must rise by more than £1.5 billion in 2026 and more than £1.0 billion in 2027, as the bank expects. Evelyn Partners must add income and assets under management without large integration costs. The Q3 2026 results on October 30, 2026 kept the outlook, with a return on tangible equity of 20.2% for the first nine months and a CET1 ratio of 13.5%.
The full-year 2026 results in early 2027 show the size of the next buyback. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker UK economy, which can raise bad loans and lower loan demand.
Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: income, impairments and capitalIncome on track for about £17.9 billion in 2026, a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more pass; lower guidance or higher impairments fail.Outcome: Income rose 9.6% in the first nine months, the loan impairment rate was 21 basis points, the CET1 ratio rose to 13.5%, and NatWest kept its outlook.
- Jan 30, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results: share buybackA return on tangible equity above 19% for 2026 and a new share buyback pass; no buyback or a lower return fails.
Recent events
- October 30, 2026NatWest reported Q3 2026 results. Attributable profit was £1.5 billion, return on tangible equity was 21.6% and earnings per share was 19.3p. Total income rose 3.0% to £4.64 billion. The loan impairment rate was 24 basis points in the quarter and 21 basis points for the first nine months. The CET1 ratio rose to 13.5%. NatWest kept its 2026 outlook and now expects risk-weighted assets of about £210 billion on January 1, 2027, including Basel 3.1.
- October 30, 2026NatWest said that, after the 2026 annual review, it expects the CET1 part of its Pillar 2A capital requirement to fall to 1.2% from January 1, 2027. Under its share buyback programme of February 2026, it repurchased and cancelled 24.02 million more shares after September 30, 2026.
- October 16, 2026NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032. It will use the money for its general banking business.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- July 31, 2026NatWest reported H1 2026 results. Attributable profit was £3.0 billion, return on tangible equity was 19.7% and earnings per share rose 23.3% to 38.1p. Total income rose 11.0% to £8.86 billion. The cost:income ratio improved to 46.0%. The CET1 ratio fell to 13.2% after the Evelyn Partners purchase. NatWest raised its 2026 guidance, declared an interim dividend of 12.0p, and said that it will consider share buybacks from its full-year 2026 results.
- June 30, 2026NatWest completed the purchase of Evelyn Partners, which added £71.7 billion of assets under management and administration. In the same quarter, it completed the sale of Cushon.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 30, 2026
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 30, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · nwg-20260630x6k
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · nwg-20251231x20f
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025Filed · nwg-20250630x6k
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · nwg-20241231x20f
Risks
- NatWest lends almost only in the UK. A recession, higher unemployment or a fall in house prices can increase bad loans. The loan impairment rate was 21 basis points in the first nine months of 2026, and the bank expects less than 25 basis points for 2026.
- Lower Bank of England rates and strong competition for mortgages and deposits can reduce the net interest margin. Retail Banking had lower mortgage margins in H1 2026, which hedge income offset.
- The Evelyn Partners purchase adds a large wealth business. If integration costs are higher, or clients and advisers leave, the expected income may not come.
- UK banks face regulatory changes and conduct claims. NatWest expects risk-weighted assets of about £210 billion on January 1, 2027, including Basel 3.1 rules, against £200.5 billion on September 30, 2026, which uses capital.
Balance sheet
NatWest funds itself mostly with customer deposits. At September 30, 2026, total assets were £758.7 billion, customer deposits were £454.3 billion and loans to customers were £449.0 billion. The loan to deposit ratio, without repos, was 90%. The average liquidity coverage ratio was 137%. Capital is the real limit for a bank. The CET1 ratio was 13.5% at September 30, 2026, up from 13.2% at June 30, 2026, against 14.0% at the end of 2025. Capital generation before distributions was 71 basis points in Q3 2026. Risk-weighted assets were £200.5 billion. Tangible net asset value per share was 359p, the same as at June 30, 2026. In October 2026, NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of senior notes due 2032.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 5.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 5.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $15.93)
- Paid per share
- $0.943 in the last 12 months (2 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.943 (the last two payments)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 14, 2026, $0.322 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.00 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.00 | |
| 2018 | $0.055 | |
| 2019 | $0.6767 | |
| 2020 | $0.2231 | |
| 2021 | $0.18 | |
| 2022 | $0.7313 | |
| 2023 | $0.52 | |
| 2024 | $0.444 | |
| 2025 | $0.645 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 23.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about NatWest Group
What does NatWest Group do?
NatWest Group is one of the largest banks in the United Kingdom, with more than 20 million customers. It has three customer businesses. Its market cap is $66B at the current price of $15.93.
When does NatWest Group report earnings next?
This is an estimate: NatWest Group may report on January 30, 2027. It last reported results on October 30, 2026.
Is NatWest Group stock below its intrinsic value?
NatWest Group stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at NatWest Group?
The latest update is from October 30, 2026. NatWest reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for NatWest Group?
NatWest lends almost only in the UK. Lower Bank of England rates and strong competition for mortgages and deposits can reduce the net interest margin. The Evelyn Partners purchase adds a large wealth business.
How much debt and cash does NatWest Group have?
NatWest funds itself mostly with customer deposits. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does NatWest Group pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of NatWest Group is $0.943 per share. That is a dividend yield of 5.9% at the current price of $15.93. The latest ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.
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