By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $185.48
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 9 ·
- Market cap
- $288B
- Shares of Dec 31, 2025
- 52-week range
- $153.41 – $212.71
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.25
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 3.1M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- After three large trial failures in 2026, the market doubts the 2030 revenue goal, and good trial results with steady growth over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The 2027 guidance on February 9, 2027 and many trial results over the next 18 months show whether the pipeline can reach the 2030 goal.
Company guidance: Total Revenue growth of a mid-to-high single-digit percentage and Core EPS growth of a low double-digit percentage for FY 2026 (, 9M and Q3 2026 results (6-K))
Price history
About
AstraZeneca is a global drug company based in Cambridge, UK. It discovers, develops, and sells prescription medicines in more than 125 countries. Its largest area is cancer medicines, such as Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Enhertu, and Datroway, which gave $12.9 billion of its $30.7 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026. It also sells medicines for rare diseases, and for heart, kidney, lung, and immune diseases, such as Farxiga, Breztri, and Ultomiris.
The US gave $12.9 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026, and emerging markets, including China, gave $8.3 billion. AstraZeneca makes money from sales of medicines protected by patents, and it must replace sales when patents end and generic drugs arrive. It spends a large part of its revenue on research and development, and it buys or licenses drugs from other companies to fill its pipeline. It has a goal of $80 billion of total revenue in 2030.
Thesis
The market prices AstraZeneca at a discount because it doubts that the pipeline can deliver the $80 billion revenue goal for 2030. Part of the value of the stock depends on drugs that are still in trials. Three large trials failed in 2026. On July 9, the Wainua heart trial (CARDIO-TTRansform) did not meet its main goal, and the shares fell about 9% in early trading.
In August, AstraZeneca stopped a Phase III lung cancer trial of volrustomig, and in September, the SERENA-4 breast cancer trial of Etcamah did not meet its main goal. After the Wainua result, HSBC said that the 2030 goal depends on a group of higher-risk trials. At the same time, Farxiga lost US patent protection and China price cuts (volume-based procurement) reduce sales of older drugs. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
Revenue must keep growing by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage and Core EPS by a low double-digit percentage in 2026, as guided on July 27. Most of the more than twenty important trial results that AstraZeneca expects over the next 18 months must be positive, mainly in cancer. New drugs such as Enhertu in early breast cancer, Datroway, and Baxfendy must grow fast enough to replace the lost Farxiga sales. The Q3 2026 report on October 30, 2026 kept the 2026 guidance, with Core EPS up 14% in the first nine months.
The next check is the 2027 guidance with the FY 2026 report on February 9, 2027. If the trials and launches go well, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If more large trials fail, the market can keep a lower value on the pipeline for longer.
Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: growth without Farxiga and pipeline newsRevenue growth at constant exchange rates in the mid-to-high single digits with the 2026 guidance kept passes; a cut to guidance or slower growth of the new cancer drugs fails.Outcome: Total Revenue rose 7% and Core EPS rose 14% at constant exchange rates in the first nine months, Oncology grew 16%, and AstraZeneca kept its 2026 guidance.
- Feb 9, 2027PendingFY 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance for revenue and Core EPS growth that keeps the $80 billion goal for 2030 in reach passes; lower guidance or a weaker 2030 goal fails.
- Q2 2027 · est.PendingNext group of Phase III resultsPositive results in most of the important trials that AstraZeneca expects over the next 18 months pass; another large Phase III failure fails.
Recent events
- October 30, 2026AstraZeneca reported 9M and Q3 2026 results. Q3 Total Revenue was $16.2 billion, up 7% at constant exchange rates, and Q3 Core EPS was $2.79, up 19%. For the first nine months, Total Revenue was $46.9 billion, up 7%, and Core EPS was $8.00, up 14%. Oncology revenue rose 16% and Farxiga revenue fell 15% in the nine months. AstraZeneca kept its 2026 guidance and reported 12 positive Phase III readouts in 2026 to date. It will publish its FY 2026 results on February 9, 2027.
- October 30, 2026AstraZeneca started the Reshaping for Sustainable Growth programme. It expects one-time restructuring costs of up to $2.0 billion and $1.5 billion of yearly pre-tax savings at the run rate, which it will put back into the pipeline. It expects to complete the programme by the end of 2029.
- October 27, 2026Enhertu, which AstraZeneca shares with Daiichi Sankyo, was approved in the EU after surgery for patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer who still have invasive disease after treatment before surgery. In the DESTINY-Breast05 Phase III trial, Enhertu lowered the risk of invasive disease recurrence or death by 53% against T-DM1. It is the first EU approval of Enhertu in early breast cancer.
Show 9 older eventsHide older events
- October 22, 2026The FDA gave accelerated approval to Ultomiris to reduce proteinuria in adults with primary IgA nephropathy at risk of disease progression. It is the first C5 complement inhibitor approved for this disease. In an interim analysis of the I CAN Phase III trial, Ultomiris reduced proteinuria by 43.4% against placebo at 34 weeks. Full approval depends on kidney function data from the same trial at week 106.
- October 11, 2026The HICKORY Phase III trial of efzimfotase alfa in adolescents and adults with hypophosphatasia did not meet its main goal. The gain in the six-minute walk test was 17.05 metres against placebo, which was not statistically significant. AstraZeneca said that patients on placebo did better than expected, and it will continue to develop the drug. The FDA gave the drug Priority Review in September 2026.
- October 5, 2026AstraZeneca completed a $2 billion equity investment in Summit Therapeutics. The two companies will test Summit's PD-1/VEGF antibody ivonescimab together with AstraZeneca's antibody drug conjugates, first in stomach and gut cancers. On October 2, AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo also agreed to test Datroway with ivonescimab.
- September 14, 2026The SERENA-4 Phase III trial of Etcamah (camizestrant) with palbociclib in first-line advanced ER-positive breast cancer did not meet its main goal of longer progression-free survival. Etcamah stays approved for patients with an ESR1 mutation, based on the SERENA-6 trial.
- September 8, 2026AstraZeneca reported that Imfinzi with Imdelltra gave a statistically significant improvement in overall survival in small cell lung cancer. On September 7, the US approved Etcamah with a CDK4/6 inhibitor for first-line advanced breast cancer with an ESR1 mutation.
- August 25, 2026AstraZeneca priced €2.55 billion of bonds in four parts, due from 2030 to 2038, with coupons from 3.402% to 4.169%. The bonds were issued on September 1, 2026.
- August 17, 2026AstraZeneca stopped the eVOLVE-Lung02 Phase III trial of volrustomig with chemotherapy in first-line lung cancer, because the data monitoring committee said that it was unlikely to meet its main goals. On the same day, it reported positive Phase III results for Enhertu and for Tagrisso with Orpathys in lung cancer.
- July 27, 2026AstraZeneca reported H1 2026 results. Total revenue was $30.7 billion, up 6% at constant exchange rates, and Core EPS was $5.21, up 11%. It kept its 2026 guidance and said that it is on track for its $80 billion revenue goal for 2030. It raised the interim dividend to $1.06 per share.
- July 9, 2026The CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III trial of Wainua in transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy did not meet its main goal. The shares fell about 9% in early trading in London.
Latest news and filings
- Next earnings
- February 9, 2027, as the company confirmed.
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · azn-20260630x6k
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · azn-20251231x20f
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025Filed · azn-20250630x6k
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · azn-20241231x20f
Risks
- The 2030 revenue goal depends on many trials that are still running. Wainua, volrustomig, and Etcamah had Phase III failures in 2026, and in October 2026 the HICKORY trial of efzimfotase alfa did not meet its main goal. More failures can lower the value that the market gives to the pipeline.
- Older drugs lose sales. Farxiga lost US patent protection, and China volume-based procurement cuts the prices of several older drugs. New drugs must grow fast enough to replace these sales.
- The US gave about 42% of revenue in the first half of 2026. US drug price rules, Medicare price talks, and tariffs on imported medicines can reduce prices and profits.
- China is a large market for AstraZeneca. Political tension, price cuts, and government investigations in China can reduce sales there.
- Net debt rose by $2.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026 to $25.8 billion. The $2 billion Summit investment in October 2026 and restructuring costs of up to $2.0 billion add to the cash outflow. More large deals can slow the fall of debt.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $8.2B
- Debt
- $31.4B
- Net debt
- $23.2B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.1×
- EBITDA $21.2B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 11×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $4.9B
- undrawn, to April 2031
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $23.2B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
Credit ratings
- Moody's A1
- S&P A+
AstraZeneca funds itself with bonds, commercial paper, and cash from its medicines. At September 30, 2026, gross debt was $34.2 billion including $2.8 billion of lease liabilities, and debt here excludes the leases. Net debt, as the company states it, was $25.8 billion, up $2.5 billion in nine months. It includes leases and nets $0.2 billion of derivatives. Cash here is cash and other investments of $8.2 billion. EBITDA is for the 12 months to September 30, 2026, from the FY 2025, H1 2026 and 9M 2026 reports. Interest cover is reported operating profit divided by net finance expense for the first nine months of 2026. Debt due within 12 months is the overdrafts, commercial paper, and current loans at September 30, 2026; the company says $5.4 billion of borrowings are due within one year. The committed bank facilities of $4.9 billion are available until April 2031 and have no financial covenants. The €2.55 billion of bonds issued on September 1, 2026 are in the debt. On October 5, 2026, after the balance sheet date, AstraZeneca paid $2 billion for Summit Therapeutics shares. The ratings did not change in the first nine months of 2026.
Dividends
The dividend data after February 19, 2026 is missing.
- Latest ex-dividend date
- February 19, 2026, $2.153 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $2.80 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.80 | |
| 2018 | $2.80 | |
| 2019 | $2.80 | |
| 2020 | $2.80 | |
| 2021 | $2.80 | |
| 2022 | $2.90 | |
| 2023 | $2.90 | |
| 2024 | $2.97 | |
| 2025 | $3.13 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 2.3% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 1.1% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about AstraZeneca
What does AstraZeneca do?
AstraZeneca is a global drug company based in Cambridge, UK. It discovers, develops, and sells prescription medicines in more than 125 countries. Its market cap is $288B at the current price of $185.48.
When does AstraZeneca report earnings next?
The company confirmed that it will report on February 9, 2027. It last reported results on October 30, 2026.
Is AstraZeneca stock below its intrinsic value?
AstraZeneca stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at AstraZeneca?
The latest update is from October 30, 2026. AstraZeneca reported 9M and Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for AstraZeneca?
The 2030 revenue goal depends on many trials that are still running. Older drugs lose sales. The US gave about 42% of revenue in the first half of 2026.
How much debt and cash does AstraZeneca have?
At September 30, 2026, AstraZeneca had $31.4B of debt and $8.2B of cash.
Does AstraZeneca pay a dividend?
The dividend data for AstraZeneca after February 19, 2026 is missing.
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