GFL Environmental

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) collects, transfers, recycles and disposes of solid waste for municipal, residential, and commercial and industrial customers. It calls itself the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America. It operates throughout Canada and in 19 U.S. states, and it had about 17,000 employees at September 30, 2026. In 2025, about 68% of revenue came from the United States and 32% from Canada.

In the first nine months of 2026, 67% came from the United States and 33% from Canada. Revenue was C$6,615.9 million in 2025 and C$2,155.3 million in Q3 2026. GFL sold its Environmental Services business in March 2025 and kept a minority equity interest in it, with an option to buy back the rest. On September 1, 2026, it bought SECURE Waste Infrastructure, a waste processing and disposal company in Western Canada and North Dakota.

The subordinate voting shares trade on the NYSE and the TSX as GFL. The executive head office moved to Miami Beach, Florida in January 2026, and the company stays incorporated in Ontario. Patrick Dovigi, the founder, is Chief Executive Officer.

The market values GFL below the largest North American waste companies because its debt is high, much of its growth comes from acquisitions paid partly with new shares, and its IFRS results show net losses after foreign exchange losses, transaction costs and interest. Net leverage was 3.8 times at September 30, 2026, after the SECURE purchase. The founder and the financial sponsors held 45.4% of the votes at the end of 2025, and their share sales add supply: on November 12, 2026, HPS sold in a block trade the 6,219,896 shares that it got when the Series A preferred shares converted. On November 10, 2026, the board ended its review of take-private proposals and chose to stay public, so a takeover premium is not likely soon.

The intrinsic value is an AI estimate. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. Net leverage must fall to the mid 3s by the end of 2026 and lower in 2027. SECURE must give the higher Adjusted EBITDA margin and the Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 40.5% to 42.5% that GFL promised.

And Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share must grow, as management expects it to double over five years, with share repurchases that take up the sponsors' sales. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, which GFL has not dated yet, is the next test, and the 2027 quarterly reports show whether leverage falls.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Oct 28, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results: organic growth and guidanceOrganic growth above 6% and a higher 2026 guidance pass; lower guidance fails.Outcome: Organic growth was 7.4%, and GFL raised its 2026 guidance for the third time.
2. Feb 10, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance with Adjusted EBITDA above C$3,000 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 40.5% or more and net leverage in the mid 3s passes; leverage at 3.8 times or higher fails.
3. Mar 2, 2027Pending

   Share repurchases after the reviewA new normal course issuer bid when the current one ends on March 2, 2027, and share repurchases in 2027 that take up the sponsors' sales, pass; no new bid fails.
4. 2027 · est.Pending

   Leverage falls after SECURENet leverage below 3.5 times by the end of 2027 passes; leverage that stays near 3.8 times or higher fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 12, 2026HPS Investment Partners converted the last 4,867,006 Series A preferred shares into 6,219,896 subordinate voting shares, and funds that HPS manages sold these shares in a block trade at US$42.73 per share. No Series A preferred shares remain. HPS funds sold the shares, not GFL.
• November 10, 2026A special committee of independent directors ended its review of unsolicited proposals to take GFL private. The board decided that the proposals were not in the best interests of the company and that GFL stays a public company. GFL said that it will help parties that want to buy some or all of the shares of its financial sponsors, and that it now has room for opportunistic share repurchases on a recurring basis.
• October 28, 2026GFL reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 27.2% to C$2,155.3 million, with organic growth of 7.4% and 5.7% from core pricing. Adjusted EBITDA rose 26.8% to C$678.7 million, and the net loss from continuing operations was C$28.0 million. GFL raised its 2026 guidance for the third time, to Adjusted EBITDA of C$2,490 million to C$2,495 million and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of about C$1,020 million.

Next earnings

Expected about February 10, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 18, 2026 · gfl-20251231x40f
• 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed February 27, 2025 · gfl-20241231x40f

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1780232)

• Debt is high. Debt before deferred finance costs was C$11,696.4 million at September 30, 2026, and net leverage was 3.8 times, above the target of the mid 3s. C$4,001.0 million of debt is due in 1 to 3 years, and higher interest rates increase the cost when GFL refinances it.
• Growth depends on acquisitions. GFL bought 13 businesses in the first nine months of 2026, and goodwill rose to C$12,583.1 million of total assets of C$29,029.2 million. A purchase that gives less than planned can cause an impairment and slow the fall in leverage.
• The founder and the financial sponsors held 29.8% of the shares and 45.4% of the votes at December 31, 2025, because the multiple voting shares have 10 votes each. Their interests can differ from other shareholders', and their share sales can add supply. GFL said on November 10, 2026 that it will help parties that want to buy the sponsors' shares, and HPS sold 6,219,896 shares in a block trade on November 12, 2026.
• Most of the debt is in U.S. dollars, and GFL reports in Canadian dollars. The loss on foreign exchange was C$196.7 million in the first nine months of 2026, and the net loss from continuing operations was C$409.8 million. Adjusted results leave out these items.
• Part of GFL's value is in businesses that it does not control. At September 30, 2026, its investments in associates were C$1,714.8 million, mainly about 34% of GFL Environmental Services and about 30.1% of Green Infrastructure Partners. Its share of their net loss was C$54.2 million in the first nine months of 2026, and the fair value of its option to buy back the rest of GFL Environmental Services fell to C$95.0 million from C$140.0 million at December 31, 2025.
• Diesel prices, recycled commodity prices and waste volumes change. Volume lowered organic growth by 0.1% in Q3 2026, and diesel prices lowered the Adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Rules on landfills can increase costs. Canada's final rules to reduce methane emissions from landfills take effect in 2028, and governments push to divert waste from landfills.

GFL funds itself with U.S. dollar senior notes, a term loan, a revolving credit facility and tax-exempt bonds, and it reports in Canadian dollars. At September 30, 2026, debt before deferred finance costs was C$11,696.4 million and cash was C$296.5 million, so net debt was C$11,399.9 million. Read more

Yield at the current rate

0.2% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.1% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $43.38)

Paid per share

$0.051 in the last 12 months (3 payments)

Current annual rate

$0.068 ($0.017 × 4 a year)

Latest ex-dividend date

October 14, 2026, $0.017 per share

Fewer payments or a raise. The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend.

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 8.0% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.