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MKLSpecialty insurance & diversified holdings

Markel Group

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$1,973.38
Analysts view
Bearish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$24B
Shares of Oct 21, 2026
P/E (trailing)
14.0
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$140.52
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$1,704.17 – $2,207.59
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.60
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
69K
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market prices Markel for uneven profits outside its insurance business, and a steady combined ratio with no new State National losses over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The 2026 annual report in early 2027 and the Q1 2027 report show whether insurance profits hold, the State National losses stop and the Enstar cover limits reserve charges.

Price history

About

Markel Group is a holding company. Its main business is Markel Insurance, which sells specialty insurance that the standard insurance market usually does not offer. The insurance business holds most of the group's capital, and it invests part of it in shares of public companies. Markel Group also owns a number of other businesses.

It reports them in three more segments: Industrial (for example, bakery equipment, car-hauling equipment and precast concrete), Financial (State National, which provides program services and fronting, and Nephila, which manages insurance-linked investments) and Consumer and Other (for example, ornamental plants and houseboats). Operating revenues were $15.5 billion in 2025, and adjusted operating income was $2.3 billion. In August 2025, Markel Insurance sold the renewal rights of its Global Reinsurance division, and the division is now in run-off.

Thesis

The market prices Markel for slow and uneven profit growth outside its core insurance business. In the first nine months of 2026, the Financial segment had an adjusted operating loss of $33 million because State National took a $205.3 million provision in Q2 for reinsurance amounts that a bankrupt capacity provider owes. Adjusted operating income for the Industrial segment fell 3% in the first nine months of 2026, although it rose 29% in Q3. The run-off of Global Reinsurance and the move of the Hagerty business to a fronting arrangement also reduce premiums and operating cash flow in 2026.

Investors also see a holding company of many small businesses as hard to value. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Markel Insurance must keep its combined ratio near the 92% of the first nine months of 2026 while premiums in its ongoing divisions grow. The Financial segment must have no further large credit loss from State National's programs.

The Industrial segment must return to profit growth for the full year. Markel must also keep buying back shares with the cash of the holding company. In October 2026, Markel agreed to an adverse development cover with Enstar on $4.8 billion of reserves of Global Reinsurance and other exited lines, which can lower the risk of new reserve charges on those lines. The 2026 annual report, expected in early 2027, gives the next test.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a large insurance loss or a new reserve charge, which can cut a year of profit growth.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 28, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: insurance profit and State NationalA Markel Insurance combined ratio of 95% or lower and no new large credit loss at State National pass; a combined ratio above 97% or a new large provision fails.Outcome: Markel Insurance's combined ratio was 92% in Q3 2026, and the Financial segment earned $80 million of adjusted operating income with no new large provision at State National.
  2. Jan 28, 2027 · est.Pending
    2026 annual results: adjusted operating income2026 adjusted operating income near or above the $2.3 billion of 2025 passes; a large fall from 2025 fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 28, 2026Markel reported Q3 2026 results in its quarterly report. Adjusted operating income rose 14% to $707 million from $621 million. Markel Insurance's adjusted operating income was $421 million, and its combined ratio improved to 92% from 93%, with $74.6 million of losses from the Middle East conflict and $54.3 million of underwriting losses in the Global Reinsurance run-off. Adjusted operating income rose 29% to $131 million in the Industrial segment and 30% to $80 million in the Financial segment. Net investment losses were $281 million, so net income to common shareholders fell to $259 million from $751 million. Markel bought back $315 million of shares in Q3.
  • October 28, 2026Markel Insurance agreed to an adverse development cover with Enstar on $4.8 billion of reserves of its run-off Global Reinsurance business and other exited lines from underwriting years 2025 and before. Markel keeps the first $2.6 billion of losses, Enstar takes the next $2.3 billion, and Markel gets $1.2 billion of cover above the $4.8 billion. Markel pays a reinsurance premium of $2.4 billion, which it settles with a transfer of assets at closing, and Enstar's risk premium in it is $120 million. Markel keeps control of the claims. The deal needs regulatory approval and should close by the end of Q4 2026. Markel expects no material effect on Q4 underwriting results.
  • September 8, 2026Markel said that Steve Markel will retire as Chairman and will not stand for re-election at the 2027 annual meeting. CEO Tom Gayner also became Chairman. Simon Wilson, CEO of Markel Insurance, and Andrew Crowley, President of Markel Ventures, became Co-Presidents. The Board also set up a Leadership Council of the Chairman, the Lead Independent Director and the Co-Presidents.
Show 4 older events
  • July 29, 2026Markel reported Q2 2026 results. Net income to common shareholders was $1.17 billion, mostly from investment gains of $1.17 billion. Adjusted operating income fell to $436 million from $578 million. Markel Insurance's adjusted operating income rose 40% to $376 million and its combined ratio improved to 93% from 97%, with $41.0 million of losses from the Middle East conflict. The Financial segment had an adjusted operating loss of $149 million after a $205.3 million provision for credit losses at State National.
  • July 29, 2026Markel said that the State National provision relates to reinsurance amounts due from a capacity provider that is in bankruptcy. Markel does not expect to get more collateral from this provider, and it continues to look for other ways to recover the amounts.
  • February 23, 2026Markel changed its leadership. Simon Wilson became Executive Vice President and CEO of Markel Insurance, and Andrew Crowley became Executive Vice President and President of Markel Ventures. Michael Heaton, Chief Operating Officer, left the company.
  • February 4, 2026Markel reported 2025 results. Operating revenues rose 5% to $15.5 billion, and adjusted operating income rose 10% to $2.3 billion. Markel Insurance's combined ratio improved by one point to 95%. Share repurchases were $429.5 million, and shares outstanding fell to 12.6 million.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
February 4, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled · mkl-20261027
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · mkl-20260930
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Other company newsFiled · mkl-20260903
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · mkl-20260630
  • 8-KCurrent reportFiled · mkl-20260520
  • 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · mkl-20260520
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · mkl-20260331
  • 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · mkl-20260226
  • 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · mkl-20251231
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1096343)

Risks

  • Specialty insurance can have large losses from catastrophes, wars and reserve changes. The Middle East conflict cost $150.6 million of losses in the first nine months of 2026. A large catastrophe or a new reserve charge can remove much of a year's underwriting profit.
  • State National's fronting and program business depends on capacity providers that pay their part of the claims. A capacity provider in bankruptcy caused a $205.3 million provision in Q2 2026. Another failure can cause new credit losses.
  • Markel holds a large portfolio of public company shares. Net investment gains were $1.17 billion in Q2 2026, but net investment losses were $281 million in Q3 2026. A fall in stock markets can cause large losses and reduce book value.
  • The leadership changed in 2026: a new Chairman role for the CEO, two new Co-Presidents and the departure of the Chief Operating Officer. Changes in strategy or in capital allocation can follow.

Balance sheet

Cash
$3.6B
Debt
$4.4B
Net debt
$760M
Interest cover
11×
times profit pays interest

Cash against debt

Cash$3.6B
Debt$4.4B

debt covered by cashnet debt $760M

Markel had senior long-term debt and other debt of $4.36 billion at September 30, 2026. Most of it is senior notes of the holding company, and the rest is debt of the operating businesses, mostly revolving lines of credit.

Dividends

Markel Group does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.

Questions about Markel Group

What does Markel Group do?

Markel Group is a holding company. Its main business is Markel Insurance, which sells specialty insurance that the standard insurance market usually does not offer. Its market cap is $24B at the current price of $1,973.38.

When does Markel Group report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Markel Group may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.

Is Markel Group stock below its intrinsic value?

Markel Group stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Markel Group?

The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Markel reported Q3 2026 results in its quarterly report.

What are the main risks for Markel Group?

Specialty insurance can have large losses from catastrophes, wars and reserve changes. State National's fronting and program business depends on capacity providers that pay their part of the claims. Markel holds a large portfolio of public company shares.

How much debt and cash does Markel Group have?

At September 30, 2026, Markel Group had $4.4B of debt and $3.6B of cash.

Does Markel Group pay a dividend?

No. Markel Group does not pay a dividend.

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