Meta Platforms

Meta runs Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. Most of its profit still comes from selling advertising on these apps, though a new subscription bundle called Meta One now sells paid AI features across them too. Meta is also spending heavily to build AI, through its Meta Superintelligence Labs division, and to build the computing infrastructure that AI work needs.

The market discounts Meta because its AI spending is outrunning the cash its advertising business generates. Free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion in Q3 2026, after $784 million in Q2 2026. In October 2026, Meta narrowed its full-year 2026 capital spending guidance to $135-145 billion, from $130-145 billion. It bought back no shares in the first nine months of 2026.

Meta also funds new data centers through partner ventures, and the bonds of its El Paso venture priced at a yield near 7.5%. In October 2026, Meta said it will create a non-voting Class C stock, which it can use to raise capital. Investors also worry, industry-wide, that heavy AI spending will not earn back its cost soon. Legal costs add to the doubt.

Meta recorded a $9.89 billion charge in Q3 2026 for its settlement with state attorneys general. In a second New Mexico case, a judge set a civil penalty of $25 billion on October 21, 2026, with 15% interest after judgment, and Meta will appeal. For the gap to close, Meta's new AI products must convert into paid, durable revenue. Advertising must also keep growing faster than costs.

Early signs are mixed. Revenue grew 26% in Q3 2026, but costs without the legal charge grew about 36%. Meta One, a paid AI subscription across Meta's apps, had 15 million subscriptions and trials two days after its September 15, 2026 launch. Meta does not report Meta One revenue on its own.

The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, should give the 2027 capital spending plan and show whether free cash flow turns positive again. If AI revenue grows and cash flow recovers over the next two to three quarters, the discount can close. If AI spending keeps outrunning cash flow into 2027, or if Meta loses its appeal of the $25 billion New Mexico penalty, it may not.

1. Oct 21, 2026Failed

   New Mexico penalty ruling in the privacy caseA penalty of a few billion dollars or less passes; a penalty near the $35-40 billion the state asks for fails.Outcome: On October 21, 2026, the court set a civil penalty of $25 billion with 15% interest after judgment, far above a few billion dollars, and Meta will appeal.
2. Oct 21, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 results: free cash flow, Meta One and capexAd revenue growth above cost growth, first Meta One revenue and operating cash flow minus capital spending above the Q2 level pass (the expected legal charge of about $10 billion lowers profit, not this measure); free cash flow near zero again or a higher capex guide fails.Outcome: Revenue grew 26%, but costs without the legal charge grew about 36%, free cash flow fell to negative $2.12 billion from $784 million in Q2, Meta gave no Meta One revenue and it raised the low end of its 2026 capex guide to $135 billion.
3. Jan 21, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 capital spending guidanceA 2027 capex plan that operating cash flow can mostly fund, with buybacks restarted or less new debt, passes; capex that again outruns cash flow fails.
4. Q2 2027 · est.Pending

   Meta One and Muse paid revenue at scaleClear reported subscription revenue that keeps growing after the launch period passes; subscriptions that fall after the free trials end fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 6, 2026Meta raised more money in early November 2026. On November 5, it closed an offering of $15.0 billion of senior notes in five parts, with coupons from 5.850% on notes due 2031 to 7.500% on notes due 2056. A prospectus supplement of November 6 added €9.0 billion of euro notes in six parts, with coupons from 4.300% to 6.400% and maturities from 2031 to 2065, which pay interest from November 12. On November 2, Meta also issued 37.5 million more depositary shares of the mandatory convertible preferred stock, for net proceeds of about $1,869 million, so the preferred stock now totals about $14.4 billion. On November 4, the banks used their full option, and Meta signed forward sale agreements for 6 million more Class A shares, which brings the forward sales to 46 million shares.
• October 26, 2026Meta sold 40 million Class A shares at $625 per share, or $25.0 billion, through forward sale agreements that settle by November 19, 2027. It also sold $12.5 billion of 6.50% mandatory convertible preferred stock that converts by August 2029. Together, the two offerings can add about 2.3% more shares. Meta will use the money for general corporate purposes.
• October 21, 2026Meta reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 26% to $64.60 billion, above its guidance of $61-64 billion. Costs grew 68% to $51.61 billion, which includes a $9.89 billion charge for the settlement with state attorneys general. Operating income fell 37% to $12.99 billion, and net income was $9.86 billion. Operating cash flow was $32.79 billion. Capital spending, with finance lease payments, was $34.91 billion, so free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion. Meta guided Q4 2026 revenue to $73-76 billion and 2026 capital spending to $135-145 billion. It bought back no shares in the first nine months of 2026.

Last earnings

October 21, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 21, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 8-KOther company newsFiled November 5, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KNew material agreement and Change to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled October 29, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 22, 2026 · meta-20260930
• 8-KNew material agreement and Earnings releaseFiled October 21, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 30, 2026 · meta-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 29, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled May 29, 2026 · meta-20260527
• 8-KOther company newsFiled May 4, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed April 30, 2026 · meta-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled April 29, 2026 · Press release and exhibits

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1326801)

• Meta's AI spending is now outrunning the cash the business generates. Free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion in Q3 2026, as capital spending with finance lease payments reached $34.91 billion, and Meta bought back no shares in the first nine months of 2026. Meta also builds data centers through partner ventures that borrow at high cost, such as the El Paso venture, whose bonds priced at a yield near 7.5%. Meta guarantees part of the value of these data centers. If AI products do not generate enough revenue soon, this financing could keep getting more expensive.
• Meta depends on advertising for almost all of its revenue. A slowdown in the ad market would hit Meta harder than a more diversified company. Meta One, its first real subscription revenue stream, is still new and unproven at scale.
• Meta keeps facing costly legal cases. In a New Mexico child-safety case, a jury and a judge ordered Meta to pay about $942 million in 2026. In a second New Mexico case, a jury found more than 43 million violations, and on October 21, 2026, a judge set a civil penalty of $25 billion with 15% interest after judgment. Meta will appeal, and it may have to post a bond during the appeal. Meta also agreed to pay $12.7-18 billion over 10 years to settle claims from 52 attorneys general. Thousands of individual lawsuits over teen harm are still pending in federal court.
• Meta spends heavily on AI before the revenue comes. It guided 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to $135-145 billion, against $72.2 billion in 2025, and in Q3 2026 its capital spending of $34.91 billion was more than its operating cash flow of $32.79 billion. Meta said that its AI investments will take longer to earn returns than those in its core business, and that it will keep investing aggressively in 2027. If AI revenue grows more slowly than this spending, investor patience can run out.
• Meta competes for AI talent and AI infrastructure capacity with well-funded rivals. Its AI products are new, and a research firm said in October 2026 that Muse downloads were falling.

Meta borrows more each year to build data centers, but its reported debt is still small next to its profit. Its larger obligations are off the balance sheet. Read more

Yield at the current rate

0.3% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $628.77)

Paid per share

$2.10 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$2.10 ($0.525 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

9% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 21, 2026, $0.525 per share

Dividends per share by year

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.