HSYChocolate, candy & snacks
The Hershey Company
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $176.43
- Analysts view
- Mixed
- Discount category
- Deep below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $36B
- Shares of Dec 31, 2025
- Yield at current rate
- 3.3%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.2%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- $156.16 – $239.48
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.07
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.6M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors worry that high prices and weight-loss drugs shrink candy volumes, so the gap closes slowly as cocoa costs fall and volumes stop falling, possibly not before 2028.
- Gap
- Slow. Management itself calls 2026 and 2027 years of profit repair, so volume and margins return to balance only from 2028.
Company guidance: Adjusted EPS of $8.58 to $8.74 (growth of 36% to 38.5%) and net sales growth of about 5% for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Hershey is the largest chocolate maker in North America. Its best-known brands are Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat (which Hershey makes and sells in the US under a license from Nestlé), Jolly Rancher, Twizzlers, and Ice Breakers. North America Confectionery, the chocolate and candy business, brought in about 81% of net sales in 2025. Hershey also sells salty snacks, including SkinnyPop popcorn, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and LesserEvil, an organic snack brand it bought in November 2025.
A smaller International segment sells mostly in Mexico, Brazil, India, and Malaysia. Sales peak around Halloween, Christmas, Valentine's Day, and Easter. The Milton Hershey School Trust, a charity that runs a free boarding school, controls about 80% of the shareholder votes through special Class B shares. This means no one can buy Hershey unless the trust agrees.
Thesis
Hershey's price reflects worry about shrinking candy volumes, not a temporary mood. Cocoa prices spiked in 2024, so Hershey raised prices about 12%. Shoppers responded by buying less candy. But profit is recovering.
Adjusted gross margin rose to 42.7% in the third quarter of 2026, from 31.8% a year earlier, and management raised its full-year earnings outlook again in October 2026. Part of that raise came from refunds of tariffs that Hershey paid. Cocoa has fallen from its peak, and management expects further declines into 2027, though cocoa rose again in late August 2026 before it eased in September. For the gap to close, volume needs to stop falling while cocoa costs keep easing.
That would let margins keep rising through 2027. Hershey's brands showed real pricing power, since the company raised prices sharply and kept most of its customers. The main risk to this case is that high prices, a weaker low-income shopper, and weight-loss drugs keep shrinking how much candy people buy. Management has described 2026 and 2027 as years of restoring profit.
It expects a more balanced mix of sales and profit growth to return from 2028. Volume has not stopped falling yet: it fell about 10 points in the third quarter, more than the 8 points of the second quarter. The next tests are cocoa costs through the rest of 2026, full-year 2026 results and the 2027 outlook, due in early 2027, and the first quarter of 2027, when lower hedged cocoa costs should show in margins. If volumes stabilize and cocoa keeps easing, the gap could close over the next several quarters.
If cocoa spikes again or volumes keep falling, it could take until 2028.
Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026FailedQ3 2026 earnings: Halloween season volume and marginA smaller volume decline, higher adjusted gross margin and the $8.36 to $8.52 EPS outlook held or raised pass; a deeper volume drop or a lower outlook fails.Outcome: Adjusted gross margin rose to 42.7% and the EPS outlook rose to $8.58 to $8.74, but volume fell about 10 points, more than the 8 points of Q2.
- Jan 29, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with double-digit EPS growth and stable volume passes; an outlook cut because of new cocoa costs or weak demand fails.
- Apr 2027 · est.PendingQ1 2027 earnings: cocoa cost relief shows in marginsGross margin up again as lower hedged cocoa costs arrive and volume flat or up passes; margin pressure from the September 2026 cocoa jump fails.
Recent events
- October 29, 2026Hershey reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales grew 3.0% to $3.28 billion, and organic net sales grew 0.8%. Prices added about 11 points of growth, while volume fell about 10 points. Adjusted earnings per share grew 103% to $2.64, and adjusted gross margin rose 10.9 points to 42.7%. Hershey's US candy retail sales grew 0.8% in the 12 weeks to September 27, 2026, but its market share fell.
- October 29, 2026Hershey raised its 2026 outlook. It now expects adjusted earnings per share of $8.58 to $8.74, growth of 36% to 38.5% (before: 32.5% to 35%), and net sales growth of about 5%. About $0.25 of that outlook comes from tariff refunds that Hershey received in Q2 and Q3 2026. It now expects organic net sales growth of about 3% (before: 3% to 3.5%).
- October 14, 2026From October 12 to October 14, 2026, the Milton Hershey School Trust sold 30,000 more common shares for about $4.9 million under the same trading plan, per its Form 4 filing. Its Class B shares did not change.
Show 11 older eventsHide older events
- October 9, 2026Hershey confirmed that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- October 9, 2026From March 16 to October 9, 2026, the Milton Hershey School Trust sold about 1.45 million common shares for about $267 million, under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, per its Form 4 filings. Its Class B shares did not change, so its voting control stays at about 80%.
- October 1, 2026Hershey named Amanda Almond President, International, effective October 12, 2026. She replaces Rohit Grover, who led the International segment for eight years. She was previously a regional managing director at the wine company Vinarchy, and she worked 12 years at Bacardi.
- September 9, 2026At the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference, management described 2026 and 2027 as years of restoring profit after the cocoa spike, and said Hershey would return to a more balanced mix of sales and profit growth from 2028.
- September 2, 2026Hershey named Dave Hulays Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Steve Voskuil, who stays on to help with the transition until he retires in Q1 2027. Hulays joined Hershey in 2012 and previously worked at Procter & Gamble.
- July 30, 2026Hershey reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales grew 6.6% to $2.79 billion. Prices added about 12 points of growth, while volume fell about 8 points. Adjusted earnings per share grew 57% to $1.90, and adjusted gross margin rose to 41.6% from 38.1%.
- July 30, 2026Management raised the low end of its 2026 outlook. It now expects net sales growth of 4.5%-5% (before: 4%-5%) and adjusted earnings per share growth of 32.5%-35%, or $8.36-$8.52 (before: $8.20-$8.52). The outlook does not include any refunds of tariffs Hershey paid. Refunds could come after the Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that the IEEPA law does not allow tariffs.
- April 30, 2026Hershey reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales grew 10.6% to $3.10 billion, and organic net sales grew 7.9%. In North America Confectionery, prices added about 12 points, and volume fell about 4 points.
- March 31, 2026At its Investor Day, Hershey laid out a plan for double-digit earnings per share growth in 2026 and 2027 as margins recover, then 6%-8% earnings per share growth and 2%-4% organic sales growth a year from 2028. It expects free cash flow above $1.8 billion by 2028.
- February 5, 2026The board raised the quarterly dividend by 6%, to $1.452 per common share.
- November 18, 2025Hershey completed its purchase of LesserEvil, an organic snack brand, for about $769 million in cash, plus up to $200 million more if the brand hits earnings targets.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 27, 2026Filed · hsy-20260927
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · hsy-20260902
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 28, 2026Filed · hsy-20260628
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · hsy-20260603
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · hsy-20260528
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · hsy-20260505
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 29, 2026Filed · hsy-20260329
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
Risks
- Hershey is selling less candy. After raising prices by about 12%, volume fell about 8 points in Q2 2026 and about 10 points in Q3 2026. In North America Confectionery, volume fell about 11 points in Q3 2026, and Hershey lost US candy market share. Management said low-income households are under the most pressure. If volume keeps falling once the price increases stop adding growth, sales could shrink.
- Hershey's plan to recover its margins depends on cocoa costs falling in 2027. Cocoa futures in New York rose to about $6,800 per ton in late August 2026, because of weather risk and a smaller crop in Ghana. They fell to about $5,370 on September 30 and closed at $5,665 on October 9. Hershey hedges cocoa 3 to 24 months ahead, so a new price spike would hit its costs with a delay, not right away.
- GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, like Wegovy and Zepbound, reduce appetite. As more people use them, they may buy less candy and snacks, which would slowly shrink Hershey's main market.
- The salty snacks business is growing but earning less. In Q3 2026, segment sales grew 22.3%, mostly from LesserEvil, but segment profit fell 17.9% because of higher freight, manufacturing and commodity costs. Management has pointed to supply problems at Dot's Pretzels that new automation is meant to fix in 2027. Hershey paid about $769 million for LesserEvil, so a weak return there would hurt.
- Hershey has changed several top leaders in a short time. CEO Kirk Tanner joined in August 2025, the President, US left in May 2026, a new Chief Supply Chain Officer started in June 2026, CFO Dave Hulays took over in September 2026, and a new President, International starts in October 2026. This much turnover at the top adds execution risk during the margin recovery.
- The Milton Hershey School Trust controls about 80% of the shareholder votes. It has blocked takeover bids before, so ordinary shareholders are unlikely to get a buyout premium, and they have little say over the board. The trust also sold about 1.48 million common shares from March to October 2026 under a trading plan. This did not change its Class B shares, which hold most of its votes.
- Hershey had about $5.1 billion of debt and $0.7 billion of cash at the end of September 2026. This is manageable for a company this profitable, but it leaves less room for another large acquisition or bigger buybacks while margins recover.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $677M
- Debt
- $5.1B
- Net debt
- $4.4B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.4×
- EBITDA $3.1B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 13×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $1.9B
- undrawn, to October 2030
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $4.4B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2050.
Credit ratings
- Moody's A1 · stable
- S&P A · stable
Hershey funds itself with cash from operations and with unsecured fixed-rate notes that the parent company issues. The debt does not limit Hershey, and Moody's expects leverage on its own measure to fall from the mid-2 times range to below 2 times over 12 to 18 months. Moody's expects this as cocoa costs ease and margins recover. Hershey uses commercial paper for the summer peak in working capital, and the $1.875 billion revolving credit facility backs it. At September 27, 2026, debt was $4.69 billion of long-term debt, including the current part, plus $436 million of short-term debt. The short-term debt was mostly $269 million of commercial paper at an average rate of 4.0%, plus foreign bank loans. Hershey repaid the $500 million of 2.300% notes when they matured in August 2026, and it issued no new notes in 2026. The next maturity is $194 million of 7.200% debentures in August 2027. EBITDA and interest cover are trailing 12-month GAAP figures to September 27, 2026, from the 10-Q and the 2025 10-K. GAAP operating profit in that period includes gains on commodity hedges and tariff refunds. In the first nine months of 2026, Hershey paid $859 million of dividends and bought back $439 million of its shares, all in the first half. A second large deal like LesserEvil would slow the fall in leverage.
As of
Show 4 sourcesHide sources
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026068046/exhibit991_2026xq3.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026068136/hsy-20260927.htm
- investing.com /news/stock-market-news/moodys-affirms-hershey-stock-a1-rating-shifts-outlook-to-stable-93CH-4748417
- ad-hoc-news.de /boerse/news/ueberblick/hershey-company-stock-us4278661081-s-and-p-shifts-outlook-to-stable/69378395
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.3% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.2% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $176.43)
- Paid per share
- $5.726 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $5.808 ($1.452 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 14, 2026, $1.452 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $2.402 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.548 | |
| 2018 | $2.756 | |
| 2019 | $2.99 | |
| 2020 | $3.154 | |
| 2021 | $3.41 | |
| 2022 | $3.874 | |
| 2023 | $4.456 | |
| 2024 | $5.48 | |
| 2025 | $5.48 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 11.7% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 9.4% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about The Hershey Company
What does The Hershey Company do?
Hershey is the largest chocolate maker in North America. Its best-known brands are Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat (which Hershey makes and sells in the US under a license from Nestlé), Jolly Rancher, Twizzlers, and Ice Breakers. Its market cap is $36B at the current price of $176.43.
When does The Hershey Company report earnings next?
This is an estimate: The Hershey Company may report on January 29, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.
Is The Hershey Company stock below its intrinsic value?
The Hershey Company stock is deep below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at The Hershey Company?
The latest update is from October 29, 2026. Hershey reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for The Hershey Company?
Hershey is selling less candy. Hershey's plan to recover its margins depends on cocoa costs falling in 2027. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, like Wegovy and Zepbound, reduce appetite.
How much debt and cash does The Hershey Company have?
At September 27, 2026, The Hershey Company had $5.1B of debt and $677M of cash.
Does The Hershey Company pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of The Hershey Company is $5.808 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.3% at the current price of $176.43. In the last 12 months, it paid $5.726 per share (3.2%). The latest ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.
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