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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$24.75
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value from an AI estimate
Analysts view
Very bullish
Discount category
Pricey (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 13 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$158B
Shares of Mar 31, 2026
52-week range
$16.51 – $27.62
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.54
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
1.4M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
SMFG trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for higher rates in Japan and a plan to raise returns, and profit that grows toward ¥2 trillion with low credit costs can earn it.
Gap
Slow. The Q3 results, expected in February 2027, are the next test, but the premium needs returns that rise toward the 13% ROTE target of the plan through fiscal 2028.

Company guidance: Profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥1,900 billion and annual dividend of ¥100 per share for the year to March 31, 2027 (, First half fiscal 2026 results (6-K))

Price history

About

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is one of the largest banking groups in Japan. Its main companies are Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), SMBC Nikko Securities, Sumitomo Mitsui Card and SMBC Consumer Finance. It gives loans and takes deposits, and it sells payments, securities, credit cards, consumer finance and asset management services in Japan and in other countries. Its digital platform Olive serves retail customers in Japan.

Total assets were ¥326.2 trillion at September 30, 2026. Its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its shares trade in Tokyo, and its ADSs trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Since October 1, 2026, each ADS represents 1.2 common shares.

Thesis

SMFG trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for higher interest rates in Japan and for a plan to raise returns. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 34.4% to ¥1,583.0 billion in the year that ended on March 31, 2026, and ROE reached 10.4%. Higher Bank of Japan rates increase what SMFG earns on its loans and on its deposits at the central bank. Its new Medium-Term Management Plan for fiscal 2026 to 2028 targets a 13% ROTE and aims for ¥2 trillion of profit.

In the six months to September 30, 2026, profit rose 7.5% to ¥1,003,155 million, and SMFG raised its forecast for the year to March 2027 to ¥1,900 billion from ¥1,700 billion. SMFG also buys back shares. It paid ¥180.0 billion for 28,018,600 shares from May to July 2026, and it plans to buy back up to ¥220 billion more from November 2026 to February 2027. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true.

Profit must reach the raised forecast of ¥1,900 billion for the year to March 2027. Returns must keep rising toward the 13% ROTE target while the common equity Tier 1 ratio stays near 12%, after 11.99% at September 30, 2026 on a preliminary basis. Credit costs must stay low as the bank lends more. The Q3 results, expected in February 2027, give the next test.

The full-year results in mid-May 2027 test the first year of the plan. If profit growth stops or credit costs rise, the premium can shrink within one to two years.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is an AI estimate from November 9, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from SMFG's filings. The method is a justified price-to-book model.

Value per share is book value per share times (ROE - g) / (r - g), where ROE is the long-term return on equity, r is the cost of equity and g is long-term growth. The results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (6-K, July 31, 2026) give stockholders' equity of ¥16,098,760 million, 3,799,822,839 shares outstanding before the stock split, and a forecast profit of ¥1,700 billion for the year to March 31, 2027. The 6-K of August 3, 2026 gives 10,403,700 shares repurchased in July 2026. The results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (6-K, May 13, 2026) give profit of ¥1,582,973 million and ROE of 10.4%.

SMFG split each share into two on October 1, 2026 (6-K, May 13, 2026). The estimate assumes 7,578,838,278 shares after the split, which is the June 30 count less the July buyback, times two. This gives book value of ¥2,124.17 per share. Each ADS represents 1.2 shares since October 1, 2026.

The estimate uses an exchange rate of ¥157.50 per U.S. dollar, the market rate at the close on November 6, 2026, as an assumption. The ROE, cost of equity and growth in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes ROE of 9%, a 10% cost of equity and 2% growth. Returns stay low in this case if rates in Japan stop rising and credit costs increase.

It gives 0.875 times book, ¥1,858.65 per share and $14.16 per ADS. The base case assumes ROE of 11.5%, a 9% cost of equity and 2% growth. It gives 1.357 times book, ¥2,882.81 per share and $21.96 per ADS. The high case assumes ROE of 13%, near the 13% ROTE target of the new plan, an 8.5% cost of equity and 2.5% growth.

It gives 1.75 times book, ¥3,717.30 per share and $28.32 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $21.60 per ADS. The value moves with the yen.

At ¥150 per dollar, it would be about 5% higher. Efficient scale and switching costs are the main sources of the advantage. Few banks in Japan have SMFG's size, deposit base and corporate relationships, and companies keep their main bank for many years. But banks in Japan earned low returns for many years, ROE was only 8.0% in the year to March 2025, and returns depend on Bank of Japan rates.

The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.

As of

Show 5 sources

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 13, 2026Passed
    First-half fiscal 2026 resultsProfit of about half of the ¥1,700 billion full-year forecast or more and a kept or higher forecast pass; a lower forecast or a jump in credit costs fails.Outcome: First half profit was ¥1,003,155 million, and SMFG raised its full-year forecast to ¥1,900 billion, although total credit cost rose to ¥133,527 million from ¥90,168 million.
  2. Feb 13, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q3 fiscal 2026 resultsNine-month profit of about three quarters of the ¥1,900 billion forecast or more and a kept or higher forecast pass; a lower forecast or a sharp rise in credit costs fails.
  3. May 2027 · est.Pending
    Full-year results: first year of the new planProfit of ¥1,900 billion or more with ROE rising toward the plan's path to a 13% ROTE passes; lower profit or flat returns fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 13, 2026SMFG reported results for the six months ended September 30, 2026. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 7.5% to ¥1,003,155 million, and ordinary profit rose 9.2% to ¥1,395,603 million. Net interest income rose to ¥1,619,966 million from ¥1,282,937 million, and total credit cost rose to ¥133,527 million from ¥90,168 million. ROE was 12.7% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange basis. SMFG raised its profit forecast for the year to March 31, 2027 to ¥1,900 billion from ¥1,700 billion. It raised the interim dividend to ¥100 per share before the stock split, and the year-end dividend forecast to ¥50 per share after the split. The annual dividend forecast is now ¥100 per share after the split, from ¥90.
  • November 13, 2026SMFG approved a buyback of up to 85,000,000 shares or ¥220 billion, from November 16, 2026 to February 28, 2027. It plans to cancel the repurchased shares on March 19, 2027.
  • November 13, 2026SMFG corrected its financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2026, because it found an error in the fair value measurement of monetary claims bought. At March 31, 2026, monetary claims bought fell by ¥99,611 million and net assets fell by ¥68,213 million. Profit did not change. SMFG filed an amendment report for its Annual Securities Report, and it corrected the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio at March 31, 2026 to 12.32%, from 12.41%.
Show 7 older events
  • October 1, 2026SMBC completed the sale of the commercial banking unit of SMBC MANUBANK, its U.S. bank subsidiary, to Bank of Hope. SMBC announced the sale on March 31, 2026. SMBC said that the sale does not change its consolidated earnings plan for the year to March 31, 2027.
  • October 1, 2026SMFG split each common share into two shares. On the same day, the ADS ratio changed from 0.6 to 1.2 common shares per ADS, so the split did not change the price level of the ADSs.
  • September 29, 2026SMFG decided to make SMBC Nikko Securities a subsidiary of a new intermediate holding company, SMBC Nikko Securities Holdings, from October 1, 2026. The holding company also oversees SMBC Nikko Jefferies Securities, a Japanese equities joint venture with Jefferies Financial Group.
  • August 14, 2026SMFG reported a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 12.63% at June 30, 2026. After a correction in November 2026, the ratio at March 31, 2026 was 12.32%.
  • August 3, 2026SMFG completed its buyback of 28,018,600 shares for ¥180.0 billion. It cancelled these shares on August 20, 2026.
  • July 31, 2026SMFG reported results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 33.0% to ¥501.4 billion. SMFG kept its forecast of ¥1,700 billion for the year to March 31, 2027.
  • May 13, 2026SMFG reported results for the year ended March 31, 2026. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 34.4% to ¥1,583.0 billion, and ROE was 10.4%. The annual dividend was ¥157 per share. For the year to March 2027, it forecast profit of ¥1,700 billion and a dividend of ¥180 per share before the stock split, a payout ratio of 40%. It also announced a buyback of up to ¥180 billion and a two-for-one stock split.

Latest news and filings

Next earnings
Expected about February 13, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
  • 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2024Filed · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1022837)

Risks

  • Profit depends on interest rates in Japan. If the Bank of Japan stops raising rates or lowers them, net interest income can grow more slowly. Higher bond yields can also cause losses on the bond portfolio.
  • Credit costs can rise in a slower economy in Japan or abroad. Large loans to companies and consumer finance can bring losses.
  • SMFG invests in businesses outside Japan and in securities joint ventures, such as SMBC Nikko Jefferies Securities. These investments can give lower returns than planned.
  • In November 2026, SMFG corrected its statements for the year ended March 31, 2026, because of an error in the fair value of monetary claims bought. The error lowered net assets by ¥68,213 million. More errors of this type can reduce trust in its reports and its capital ratios.
  • The ADS price is in U.S. dollars, but SMFG earns mostly in yen. A weaker yen lowers the value of each ADS.

Balance sheet

SMFG is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, securities and deposits, and not corporate debt. At September 30, 2026, total assets were ¥326.2 trillion and net assets were ¥15.98 trillion.

As of

Show 4 sources

Dividends

The dividend data after March 31, 2025 is missing.

Latest ex-dividend date
March 31, 2025, $0.25 per share

Dividends per share by year

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group dividends per share by year
2016
$0.00
2017
$0.00
2018
$0.00
2019
$0.00
2020
$0.00
2021
$0.00
2022
$0.00
2023
$0.00
2024
$0.409
2025
$0.25

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

What does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group do?

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is one of the largest banking groups in Japan. Its main companies are Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), SMBC Nikko Securities, Sumitomo Mitsui Card and SMBC Consumer Finance. Its market cap is $158B at the current price of $24.75.

When does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group may report on February 13, 2027. It last reported results on November 13, 2026.

Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group stock below its intrinsic value?

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group stock is pricey. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group?

The latest update is from November 13, 2026. SMFG reported results for the six months ended September 30, 2026.

What are the main risks for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group?

Profit depends on interest rates in Japan. Credit costs can rise in a slower economy in Japan or abroad. SMFG invests in businesses outside Japan and in securities joint ventures, such as SMBC Nikko Jefferies Securities.

How much debt and cash does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group have?

SMFG is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, securities and deposits, and not corporate debt. This is as of September 30, 2026.

Does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group pay a dividend?

The dividend data for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group after March 31, 2025 is missing.

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