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Chipotle

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$36.64
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$46B
Shares of Oct 26, 2026
P/E (trailing)
34.2
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$1.07
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$27.31 – $41.42
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
1.00
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
18M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market fears that weak traffic, rising costs and food-safety scares keep Chipotle's growth slow, and growing transactions with a restaurant margin that stops falling can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. Quarterly traffic and restaurant margins over the next three to five quarters can show whether the slowdown has ended.

Company guidance: Low single digit comparable restaurant sales growth for 2026; 340 to 360 new company-owned US and Canada restaurants in 2027 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))

Price history

About

Chipotle Mexican Grill runs fast-casual restaurants that sell burritos, bowls, quesadillas, tacos and salads. At September 30, 2026, it owned 4,267 restaurants, and partners ran 20 more restaurants abroad. Chipotle owns and runs almost all of its restaurants, so it earns money from food sales and keeps the restaurant profit, unlike franchise companies. Digital orders gave 38.8% of food and beverage revenue in Q3 2026.

Most new restaurants have a Chipotlane, a drive-through lane for digital orders. It plans 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026 and 340 to 360 new company-owned restaurants in the United States and Canada in 2027. It has no debt. Scott Boatwright is the CEO.

Thesis

The market prices Chipotle with a discount because fewer customers visited its restaurants in 2025, growth stays slow in 2026 and costs rise. Comparable restaurant sales grew 0.5% in Q1 2026, 2.2% in Q2 and 2.1% in Q3, and transactions grew in each of these quarters. But the restaurant-level margin fell to 23.3% in Q3 2026 from 24.5% a year earlier, because of beef and freight inflation, more labor in the restaurants and higher insurance costs. Adjusted EPS fell 6.9% to $0.27 in Q3 2026.

Food safety adds a second fear. Chipotle expected a cyclospora outbreak to cut Q3 2026 comparable sales by about 2 points, and on August 4, 2026 it removed jalapeños linked to a salmonella outbreak. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Transactions must keep growing.

The restaurant-level margin must stop falling as menu prices offset beef and labor inflation. No new food-safety event must hurt traffic. The next test is the Q4 2026 report, expected in late January or early February 2027, with the first 2027 outlook for comparable sales. If traffic grows and the margin holds, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters.

The main risk is a weak consumer that keeps comparable sales near zero.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 28, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: comparable sales and Q4 trendA pass is Q3 comparable sales at or above the guided 1% with positive transactions; a fail is negative transactions or a guidance cut because of the salmonella event.Outcome: Comparable sales grew 2.1% with transactions up 0.8%, and Chipotle kept its 2026 guidance, but the restaurant-level margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5%.
  2. Jan 28, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook: traffic and marginA pass is 2027 guidance for positive comparable sales and a stable restaurant-level margin; a fail is guidance for flat sales or a lower margin.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 28, 2026Chipotle reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 9.6%. Comparable restaurant sales grew 2.1%, with transactions up 0.8%, above the guided growth of about 1%. The restaurant-level margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5%, and adjusted EPS fell 6.9% to $0.27. Chipotle kept its 2026 guidance for low single-digit comparable sales growth and 350 to 370 new restaurants. For 2027, it expects 340 to 360 new company-owned restaurants in the United States and Canada. It bought back $110.0 million of stock in the quarter.
  • October 12, 2026Starbucks said that it is "not buying Chipotle". On October 8, the Financial Times reported that Starbucks had worked with advisers on a possible proposal to buy Chipotle, and Chipotle shares rose 6.2% that day. Chipotle did not comment, and its shares fell about 3% after the denial.
  • September 14, 2026Chipotle elected Sabir Sami, the former CEO of KFC, to its board of directors, which grew to 11 members.
Show 4 older events
  • August 4, 2026Chipotle removed jalapeños from its restaurants after health authorities in Minnesota began to investigate a salmonella outbreak. Chipotle said that the Minnesota Department of Health had no ongoing concerns with Chipotle, and that its 2026 guidance did not include a financial impact from the matter. The stock fell about 10% that day.
  • July 29, 2026Chipotle reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 9.3%. Comparable restaurant sales grew 2.2%, with transactions up 1.0%. The restaurant-level margin fell to 25.2% from 27.4%, and adjusted EPS was flat at $0.33. Chipotle raised its full-year guidance to low single-digit comparable sales growth, bought back $630.7 million of stock in the quarter, and added $1.3 billion of buyback authorization.
  • June 1, 2026Fernando Machado, a former marketing chief of Restaurant Brands International, started as Chief Brand Officer. Chipotle announced him on April 27, 2026, together with Arlie Sisson as its first Chief Digital Officer.
  • April 29, 2026Chipotle reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $3.1 billion, up 7.4%. Comparable restaurant sales grew 0.5%, as transactions rose 0.6%. Adjusted EPS fell 17.2% to $0.24.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1058090)

Risks

  • Food-safety events cut traffic. Chipotle expected a cut of about 2 points to Q3 2026 comparable sales from a cyclospora outbreak, and it removed jalapeños after a salmonella outbreak in August 2026.
  • Customers spend less. Comparable sales grew only 0.5% in Q1 2026, 2.2% in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q3 2026. If the consumer stays weak, traffic can fall again, and Chipotle cannot raise prices much without losing more customers.
  • Costs rise faster than prices. In Q3 2026, labor rose to 25.7% of revenue from 25.2%, because of wage inflation, bonuses, more restaurant labor and higher insurance costs. Other operating costs rose to 16.0% of revenue from 15.0%. Food, beverage and packaging costs fell to 29.5% from 30.0% because of menu price increases and tariff relief, but beef and freight inflation continued. The operating margin fell to 13.7% from 15.9%.
  • Chipotle owns almost all of its restaurants, so it carries all of their costs. It also spends much of its cash on buybacks: $1.46 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Capital spending rose to $640.6 million in the same period from $468.9 million a year earlier.

Balance sheet

Cash
$1.0B
Debt
$0.0M
Net cash
$1.0B
Credit line
$500M
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$1.0B
Debt$0.0M

debt covered by cash

Chipotle has no debt. Cash includes $634.2 million of cash and cash equivalents, $268.4 million of short-term investments and $100.4 million of long-term investments at September 30, 2026.

Dividends

Chipotle does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.

Questions about Chipotle

What does Chipotle do?

Chipotle Mexican Grill runs fast-casual restaurants that sell burritos, bowls, quesadillas, tacos and salads. At September 30, 2026, it owned 4,267 restaurants, and partners ran 20 more restaurants abroad. Its market cap is $46B at the current price of $36.64.

When does Chipotle report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Chipotle may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.

Is Chipotle stock below its intrinsic value?

Chipotle stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Chipotle?

The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Chipotle reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Chipotle?

Food-safety events cut traffic. Customers spend less. Costs rise faster than prices.

How much debt and cash does Chipotle have?

At September 30, 2026, Chipotle had $0.0M of debt and $1.0B of cash.

Does Chipotle pay a dividend?

No. Chipotle does not pay a dividend.

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