By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- CA$94.46
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
- Market cap
- CA$7.4B
- Shares of Dec 31, 2025
- Yield at current rate
- 1.9%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 1.9%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- CA$80.38 – CA$105.25
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.91
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 168K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices West Fraser for weak housing demand and trade barriers on Canadian wood, and a housing recovery over 2027 and 2028 with lower costs after mill curtailments can close the gap slowly.
- Gap
- Slow. The gap depends on a recovery in North American housing, which can take several years.
Company guidance: Lumber shipments at the low end of 2.4 to 2.7 billion bf and NA OSB at the low end of 5.9 to 6.3 billion sq ft for 2026 (, Q3 2026 news release)
Price history
About
West Fraser makes lumber, engineered wood products, and pulp and paper. Its main products are spruce-pine-fir (SPF) and southern yellow pine (SYP) lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), plywood, laminated veneer lumber (LVL) and medium density fiberboard (MDF). It has mills in Canada and the United States, and it makes OSB and other panels in the United Kingdom and Europe. Its headquarters are in Vancouver, and its shares trade on the TSX and the NYSE.
It reports in U.S. dollars, and the price on this page is the TSX price in Canadian dollars. Sales were $1.363 billion in Q3 2026. Sean McLaren is President and CEO.
Thesis
The market prices West Fraser for weak North American housing demand and for trade barriers. U.S. imports of Canadian lumber pay softwood lumber duties and, since October 14, 2025, a 10% Section 232 tariff. New U.S. tariffs of 50% under Section 338 on certain Canadian products started in August 2026, and they affect part of its plywood, LVL and MDF shipments. Results stayed weak in 2026: Q3 earnings were a loss of $80 million and adjusted EBITDA was $38 million, after $59 million in Q2 and negative $66 million in Q1.
Housing affordability keeps demand low. On October 28, 2026, West Fraser said it will curtail an OSB mill in Alabama and a lumber mill in Arkansas indefinitely, because it sees no near-term improvement in demand. For the gap to close, three things must be true. U.S. housing starts and repair spending must recover, so that lumber and OSB prices rise.
The new Henderson, Texas sawmill and the mill closures and curtailments of 2025 and 2026 must lower costs. Trade costs must not rise further. The Q4 2026 results and the 2027 shipment targets, expected in early 2027, give the next test. A recovery in housing over 2027 and 2028 is the main condition, so the gap will probably close only over several years.
The main reason it may not close is a longer housing slowdown, which West Fraser cannot control.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026FailedQ3 2026 resultsPositive adjusted EBITDA in the lumber, NA EWP and Europe EWP segments and shipments on track for the 2026 targets pass; negative adjusted EBITDA or lower shipment targets fail.Outcome: NA EWP adjusted EBITDA was negative $4 million, and West Fraser now expects 2026 lumber and North American OSB shipments at the low end of its ranges.
- Jan 28, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 targetsHigher 2027 shipment targets and positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026 pass; lower targets or new mill closures because of weak demand fail.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026West Fraser reported Q3 2026 results. Sales were $1.363 billion, earnings were a loss of $80 million, or $1.03 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $38 million. Lumber adjusted EBITDA was $34 million, with a $12 million favourable duties adjustment. NA EWP adjusted EBITDA was negative $4 million, and Europe EWP adjusted EBITDA was $4 million. West Fraser now expects 2026 lumber and North American OSB shipments at the low end of its guidance ranges. The final combined duty rate of the seventh administrative review is 20.02%. Liquidity was $1.2 billion at October 2, 2026.
- October 28, 2026West Fraser said it will indefinitely curtail its Huguley OSB mill in Lanett, Alabama and its lumber mill in Leola, Arkansas in Q4 2026. This removes about 500 million square feet of OSB and 225 million board feet of SYP lumber capacity each year. It expects an asset impairment loss of $200 million to $220 million in Q4 2026.
- October 8, 2026West Fraser said it will release Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026 and hold a conference call on October 29, 2026.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- September 16, 2026West Fraser entered into a new $500 million three-year term loan that matures in September 2029. It uses part of the money to retire its $300 million term loan due 2028. It also declared a quarterly dividend.
- July 29, 2026West Fraser reported Q2 2026 results. Sales were $1.434 billion, earnings were a loss of $61 million, or $0.78 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $59 million. The Henderson, Texas sawmill more than doubled its output, and the High Level, Alberta OSB mill completed its wind-down. Cash from operations was $192 million, and West Fraser repaid $148 million of operating loans.
- July 20, 2026The U.S. administration announced 50% tariffs on certain Canadian products under Section 338, effective August 19, 2026. West Fraser said its U.S. shipments of softwood lumber and OSB are not affected, but some plywood, LVL and MDF shipments can be.
- June 10, 2026West Fraser declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.32 per share, payable on July 13, 2026.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · wfg-20251231_d2
- 40-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · wfg-20241231_d2
Risks
- Demand for lumber and panels depends on U.S. housing starts and repair spending. High mortgage rates and weak affordability keep demand low, and prices of wood products move quickly with demand.
- U.S. imports of Canadian lumber pay softwood lumber duties and a 10% Section 232 tariff, and new Section 338 tariffs of 50% apply to some Canadian wood products from August 2026. Changes from October 30, 2026 add thin MDF, about 15% of West Fraser's 2026 MDF shipments to the U.S. Higher trade costs reduce margins on Canadian production.
- West Fraser closed or curtailed mills in 2025 and 2026, such as the Augusta sawmill and the High Level OSB mill, and it curtails the Huguley OSB mill and the Leola sawmill in Q4 2026. Closures cause charges, such as the expected impairment loss of $200 million to $220 million in Q4 2026, and new mills such as Henderson must reach full output to lower costs.
- The conflict in the Middle East and its effect on inflation can reduce demand for engineered wood products in Europe and the United Kingdom.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $203M
- Debt
- $500M
- Net debt
- $297M
- Credit line
- $1.0B
- undrawn, to May 2030
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $297M
West Fraser has low debt. At October 2, 2026, its main debt was a $500 million term loan that matures in September 2029. This loan replaced the $300 million term loan due in May 2028. Its $1 billion revolving credit facility, which matures in May 2030, was undrawn, after West Fraser repaid $55 million of operating loans in Q3 2026. The release gives no total debt figure. Cash and short-term investments were $203 million at October 2, 2026, up from $74 million at July 3, 2026, and available liquidity was $1.2 billion. It also has a $20 million credit facility for its European operations. Capital spending was $212 million in the first nine months of 2026. West Fraser bought back no shares under its 2026 normal course issuer bid to October 2, 2026. All amounts are in U.S. dollars.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 1.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 1.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of CA$94.46)
- Paid per share
- CA$1.781 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- CA$1.812 (CA$0.453 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 29, 2026, CA$0.453 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | CA$0.28 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CA$0.36 | |
| 2018 | CA$0.70 | |
| 2019 | CA$0.80 | |
| 2020 | CA$0.80 | |
| 2021 | CA$0.957 | |
| 2022 | CA$1.515 | |
| 2023 | CA$1.609 | |
| 2024 | CA$1.733 | |
| 2025 | CA$1.783 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 17.4% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 20.3% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about West Fraser
What does West Fraser do?
West Fraser makes lumber, engineered wood products, and pulp and paper. Its main products are spruce-pine-fir (SPF) and southern yellow pine (SYP) lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), plywood, laminated veneer lumber (LVL) and medium density fiberboard (MDF). Its market cap is CA$7.4B at the current price of CA$94.46.
When does West Fraser report earnings next?
This is an estimate: West Fraser may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is West Fraser stock below its intrinsic value?
West Fraser stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at West Fraser?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. West Fraser reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for West Fraser?
Demand for lumber and panels depends on U.S. housing starts and repair spending. U.S. imports of Canadian lumber pay softwood lumber duties and a 10% Section 232 tariff, and new Section 338 tariffs of 50% apply to some Canadian wood products from August 2026. West Fraser closed or curtailed mills in 2025 and 2026, such as the Augusta sawmill and the High Level OSB mill, and it curtails the Huguley OSB mill and the Leola sawmill in Q4 2026.
How much debt and cash does West Fraser have?
At October 2, 2026, West Fraser had $500M of debt and $203M of cash.
Does West Fraser pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of West Fraser is CA$1.812 per share. That is a dividend yield of 1.9% at the current price of CA$94.46. In the last 12 months, it paid CA$1.781 per share (1.9%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 29, 2026.
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