About Picks

Picks is a personal list of stocks that I follow. For each company I write research: what it does, why the market prices it as it does, what must happen for that to change, and what could go wrong.

A company joins the list after I research it. For each one I look at the intrinsic value, which usually comes from third-party analysts. For some companies it comes from the company's management or from an AI estimate. Picks shows only how far the price is from it, as a word such as Deep below or Close to, never as a number.

The page also has my thesis, the checkpoints I watch and the main risks. I refresh a company after it reports earnings, and sooner when big news arrives.

I use AI to help me research and write. It reads company filings and releases and drafts the text. I check the facts and publish each page myself. Mistakes can still happen. If you find one, please tell me.

Picks gives general opinions about stocks, including a label for the stocks it likes best. They are not tailored to your needs, goals or risk tolerance. I am not a registered adviser. I rely on the general-advice exemption in Canadian securities law (NI 31-103 s.8.25). Do your own research, or ask a registered adviser. I may hold any stock on the list.

Prices are daily closes from a public market data feed, adjusted for stock splits.

Analysts: figures come from a third-party research data provider (name not shown) and are shown in Picks' own words and scale. The view of Wall Street analysts is one of five words, from Bearish to Very bullish.

AI estimate: produced by an AI model from the company's filings and checked by Kevin. It is not an analyst's view.

Each AI estimate is dated and written out on the company page. It gives the method, each input with its date and filing, the low, base and high cases, the weight of each case, and every assumption, named as an assumption.

Each pick names dated tests of its thesis, such as an earnings report or a ruling. I write the pass rule before the event. After the event I score the checkpoint as passed or failed from the company's own reports. Every scored checkpoint, with the pass rates, is on the Checkpoints page.

I take a company off the list when I stop following it. Its page and its history stay online, and the home page lists it under No longer picks. A company can come back later.