Natera

Natera, Inc. (Natera) runs genetic tests that read cell-free DNA in blood. It sells tests in three areas: oncology, women's health and organ health. Signatera is a personalized blood test for molecular residual disease (MRD) in cancer. Panorama is a prenatal screening test, and Horizon is a carrier screening test.

Natera sells through its own sales force and through laboratory partners, and it runs laboratories in Austin, Texas, San Carlos, California and Boulder, Colorado. Revenue was $2,306.1 million in 2025, up 35.9%, and $2,243.4 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 36.7%. In Q3 2026, Natera processed about 1,093,100 tests, of which about 339,500 were oncology tests. On December 4, 2025, it bought Foresight Diagnostics, a maker of MRD tests for lymphoma, for $424.5 million.

Natera is based in Austin, Texas, and its shares trade on Nasdaq. Solomon Moshkevich became Chief Executive Officer and President on November 5, 2026.

Natera trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its fast growth in cancer testing, even though it has not yet shown steady profit. Revenue grew 34.1% in Q3 2026, and Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion. But it still had a loss from operations of $68.3 million in the quarter, after $107.4 million of stock-based pay. Operating cash flow was positive at $138.9 million in nine months, but capital spending took $124.2 million of it.

Three doubts matter. Investors ask how long oncology volume can keep growing near 60% a year. They ask how much of revenue depends on collection estimates that can reverse: changes in estimates added $32.3 million of revenue in Q3, against $55.1 million a year earlier. And the chief executive left on November 5, 2026, which adds change at the top.

For the price to hold, three things must be true. Oncology tests, led by Signatera, must keep growing from 339,500 in Q3. Gross margin must stay in the 64% to 66% guided range without help from estimate changes. And operating costs must grow slower than revenue, as in Q3 (up 19.5% against revenue up 34.1%), so that the operating loss turns into profit while stock-based pay, about 14% of revenue, stays flat.

The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, is the next test.

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

1. Nov 5, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results: revenue and guidanceRevenue growth above 30% with a raise to 2026 revenue guidance passes; slower growth or a cut fails.Outcome: Revenue grew 34.1% to $794.0 million and 2026 revenue guidance rose by $140 million at the midpoint.
2. Feb 25, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results: 2027 guidance and gross margin2027 revenue guidance that grows 20% or more with a gross margin of 64% or more passes; slower growth or a lower margin fails.
3. May 2027 · est.Pending

   Q1 2027 results: operating lossA loss from operations smaller than the $68.3 million of Q3 2026 with revenue growth of 25% or more passes; a larger loss fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 5, 2026Natera reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $794.0 million, up 34.1%, and gross margin was 64.7%. Tests processed rose 22.3% to about 1,093,100, and oncology tests rose 60.9% to about 339,500. Clinical MRD units grew by 32,700 from Q2. The loss from operations was $68.3 million and the net loss was $59.9 million, or $0.42 per share. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $1,097.2 million.
• November 5, 2026Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance by $140 million at the midpoint, to $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion. It expects a gross margin of about 64% to 66%, selling, general and administrative costs of $1.225 billion to $1.300 billion, research and development costs of $825 million to $925 million, and positive cash flow.
• November 5, 2026Natera's Q3 10-Q describes two class actions filed in August 2026 about a cybersecurity incident at Baylor Genetics in June 2026, which affected patients whose tests were ordered through Natera. The 10-Q also says that a court entered judgment in March 2026 on a $57.0 million jury verdict in the Ravgen patent case, and that Natera has appealed.

Last earnings

November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 25, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 5, 2026 · ntra-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 5, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 7, 2026 · ntra-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 6, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled July 6, 2026 · ntra-20260701
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled June 16, 2026 · ntra-20260611
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled June 5, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 8, 2026 · ntra-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled May 7, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled April 1, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1604821)

• Natera has a loss from operations, $237.6 million in nine months, and stock-based pay of $304.3 million in the same period. Profit depends on costs growing slower than revenue for several years.
• Revenue depends on payer coverage, reimbursement and collection estimates. Changes in estimates added $32.3 million of revenue in Q3. Payers can lower rates, withdraw coverage or ask for repayment, and Natera must then reverse revenue.
• A new Chief Executive Officer started on November 5, 2026, one day after the previous one resigned. A change at the top can affect plans, sales and staff.
• Natera is a party to many legal matters, including patent cases, patient class actions about billing and marketing, a securities class action and the Baylor Genetics class actions. A loss or a large settlement would cost cash.
• Natera relies on two main laboratories and on a few suppliers for instruments and materials. A problem at one laboratory or supplier would stop testing. Contractual commitments to suppliers were $240.0 million.

Natera reported cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $1,097.2 million at September 30, 2026, against $1,076.1 million at December 31, 2025. Debt was $80.3 million, including accrued interest, on a UBS line of credit at the 30-day SOFR rate plus 0.50%. Read more

Natera does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.