HONAAerospace systems & defense electronics
Honeywell Aerospace
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $169.53
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Far below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $54B
- Shares of Sep 26, 2026
- Average volume
- 3.6M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- A parts shortage forced a guidance cut, and the gap can close from 2027 if supply catches up with strong orders.
- Gap
- Can close. Quarterly reports show when the parts shortage eases and the aftermarket backlog turns into revenue.
Company guidance: Pro forma standalone adjusted EPS of $7.85 - $8.00 and second half free cash flow of $1.2B - $1.4B for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Honeywell Aerospace makes equipment and parts for aircraft and spacecraft. Its main product lines are avionics and navigation systems, engines and auxiliary power units, and aircraft control systems, plus satellite communication products, including laser links. It reports three segments: Electronic Solutions, Engines and Power Systems, and Control Systems. Aircraft makers like Airbus and Boeing, and business jet makers, buy this equipment new as original equipment (OE), a lower-margin sale.
Once the equipment is installed, Honeywell then earns higher-margin, recurring revenue for decades by selling replacement parts, repairs, and overhauls, called the aftermarket. Sales to the US and allied militaries and to space programs form a separate end market, Defense and Space. Honeywell Aerospace became an independent public company on June 29, 2026, when Honeywell International, renamed Honeywell Technologies (ticker HON), spun it off. This followed Honeywell's earlier spin-off of Solstice Advanced Materials (ticker SOLS) on October 30, 2025, completing a three-way breakup that left Honeywell Technologies as a smaller, pure-play automation company.
Honeywell Aerospace is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, employs more than 36,000 people, and serves more than 10,000 customers worldwide. It joined the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 at the spin-off. It left the S&P 100 on September 21, 2026, and stays in the S&P 500.
Thesis
Most of the discount opened on a single day, August 6, 2026. The evening before, Honeywell Aerospace cut its first full-year guidance as an independent company. It blamed a shortage of castings, forgings, and other mechanical parts from a small group of suppliers. The stock fell 23% on August 6.
A securities class action lawsuit filed weeks later argues management understated how bad the shortage was. The company also carries about $16 billion of debt from its own spin-off. That leaves little financial room for a further setback. The gap can close if the supply shortage eases as management now expects.
That would let more aftermarket parts, Honeywell's highest-margin business, reach customers. Orders for the twelve months to September 2026 grew 9%, and the backlog was $19.3 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 12%. So the case rests on supply catching up with demand, not on demand itself. Large order wins, like the July 2026 IndiGo avionics deal for 810 aircraft, need to show up in revenue rather than stay stuck in the backlog.
Management reaffirmed its 2030 targets in September 2026, but investors have no multi-year standalone track record to check them against yet. The third-quarter report of October 28, 2026 showed only 2% organic sales growth, but the company kept its 2026 sales guidance, raised its EPS and second-half free cash flow guidance, and declared a first dividend. Management saw encouraging signs from its slowest suppliers. The full-year report, expected in late January 2027, gives the first 2027 guidance and is the next test.
If the shortage eases and the pending class action does not produce a large judgment, the discount could start to close over the next three to five quarters, not before 2027.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026PassedQ3 2026 earnings: parts supply and aftermarket shipmentsBetter supplier output, guidance held at 4% to 5% organic growth and H2 free cash flow of $1.0 to $1.5 billion pass; a second guidance cut fails.Outcome: The company kept its organic growth guidance, raised its EPS and second-half free cash flow guidance, and saw encouraging signs from its slowest suppliers.
- Nov 23, 2026PendingSecurities class action lead-plaintiff deadlineA slow, routine case with no new disclosures passes; new facts about the DOJ cybersecurity matter or supplier problems fail.
- Jan 28, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and first 2027 guidance2027 guidance with higher aftermarket sales, margin recovery and a plan for debt reduction passes; flat earnings and no deleveraging path fail.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026Honeywell Aerospace reported third-quarter 2026 results. Sales grew 2%, reported and organic, to $4.64 billion. Commercial aftermarket sales grew only 2%, to $2.13 billion, because mechanical parts were short. Adjusted EBIT grew 1% to $1.16 billion, with a net benefit of about $50 million from tariff refunds. Adjusted EPS was $2.21 and free cash flow was $500 million. The backlog grew 12% to $19.3 billion. The company kept 2026 organic sales growth guidance at 4% to 5%. It raised adjusted EPS guidance to $7.85 to $8.00, from $7.60 to $7.90, and second-half free cash flow guidance to $1.2 to $1.4 billion. It narrowed adjusted EBIT guidance to $4.375 to $4.425 billion.
- October 28, 2026Honeywell Aerospace declared its first quarterly dividend as an independent company, $0.40 per share, payable on December 4, 2026. It also said it will build a $500 million, 300,000 square foot factory in Tempe, Arizona, which opens in late 2028. The factory adds in-house machining of complex parts, an area where its suppliers are short of capacity.
- September 30, 2026Law firms announced a securities class action, Green v. Honeywell Aerospace, Inc. (D. Ariz., No. 26-cv-06779), on behalf of investors who bought shares between June 29 and September 1, 2026. It alleges Honeywell Aerospace made false or misleading statements about supplier concentration risk and did not disclose the DOJ cybersecurity investigation before its August 5, 2026 guidance cut. The lead-plaintiff deadline is November 23, 2026.
Show 10 older eventsHide older events
- September 29, 2026Honeywell Aerospace confirmed that it will report third-quarter 2026 results on October 28, 2026, after the Nasdaq close, with a call at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
- September 9, 2026At investor conferences in September, CEO James Currier said the company reacted too late to its supplier problems. He said ten suppliers of metal parts are the main bottlenecks.
- September 4, 2026S&P Dow Jones Indices said Honeywell Aerospace would leave the S&P 100 on September 21, 2026. The stock stays in the S&P 500.
- September 1, 2026Director Craig Arnold bought 6,400 Honeywell Aerospace shares at $156.00 each, about $1.0 million, in an open-market purchase.
- September 1, 2026The US Attorney's Office for the Western District of North Carolina announced that Honeywell Aerospace agreed to pay $2.04 million to settle False Claims Act allegations that it did not meet cybersecurity requirements in US Department of Defense contracts from 2020 to 2023.
- August 12, 2026Honeywell Aerospace completed an exchange offer, swapping about $16 billion of unregistered senior notes issued for the spin-off into registered notes, with 98% or more of each series tendered.
- August 5, 2026Honeywell Aerospace reported its first quarterly results as an independent public company: Q2 2026 revenue of $4.52 billion, up 5% organically. It cut 2026 organic sales growth guidance to 4% to 5% from 7% to 9%, and adjusted EBIT guidance to $4.35 to $4.45 billion, because of parts shortages. It also disclosed a $3.5 billion share buyback that the board approved on July 23, 2026. The next day, the stock fell to a low of $150.03 and closed 23% lower, at $156.47.
- July 20, 2026IndiGo chose Honeywell Aerospace avionics and auxiliary power units for 810 Airbus A320neo-family aircraft. The companies did not disclose the value of the deal.
- June 29, 2026Honeywell Aerospace completed its spin-off from Honeywell Technologies and began trading on Nasdaq as HONA. It also joined the S&P 500 and the S&P 100.
- October 30, 2025Honeywell completed the spin-off of Solstice Advanced Materials (ticker SOLS), the first of the two spin-offs that separated Honeywell into three independent companies.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026Filed · hona-20260926
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026Filed · hona-20260627
- 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and Earnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled · hona-20260624
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Other company newsFiled · hona-20260614
Risks
- A shortage of mechanical parts, such as castings and forgings, from a small number of suppliers forced Honeywell Aerospace to cut its full-year 2026 organic sales growth guidance from 7%-9% to 4%-5%, and cut adjusted EBIT guidance by about $300 million, in its very first quarter as a public company. In September 2026, the CEO said the company reacted too late to the supplier problems.
- Honeywell Aerospace issued about $16 billion of senior notes to fund its own spin-off from Honeywell Technologies. In October 2026 it also started a dividend of $0.40 per share each quarter. This debt load and the new cash payouts leave less room to absorb a further supply chain delay or a slowdown in aircraft or defense demand.
- The company has only two quarterly reports as an independent business, from August and October 2026. Investors cannot yet check management's guidance and cost estimates against a multi-year standalone track record.
- The parts shortage cut shipments of international defense products, which have high margins, in the second and third quarters of 2026. Commercial aftermarket growth slowed to 2% in the third quarter, from 8% in the second quarter. If supply stays short, the company cannot ship its full aftermarket and defense backlog, and margins stay under pressure.
- Revenue depends on aircraft production rates at Boeing and Airbus, airline flight activity, and US and allied defense budgets, none of which Honeywell Aerospace controls. A slowdown in any of these would slow growth further on top of the current supply problem.
- A securities class action (Green v. Honeywell Aerospace, Inc., filed in the District of Arizona) alleges the company misled investors about supplier concentration risk and did not disclose a DOJ cybersecurity investigation before its August 2026 guidance cut. The case is at an early stage, with a lead-plaintiff deadline of November 23, 2026, but an adverse outcome could add legal costs and management distraction on top of the supply-chain problem.
- The 10-Q for the quarter that ended June 27, 2026 shows $828 million of environmental liabilities. The company says the final cost could be two to three times the amount it recorded.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.6B
- Debt
- $16.0B
- Net debt
- $14.4B
- Credit line
- $4.0B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $14.4B
Credit ratings
- S&P BBB+ · positive
- Fitch A- · stable
- Moody's A3 · stable
Honeywell Aerospace started life with debt that it did not use for its own business. On March 16, 2026, it issued $16.0 billion of senior notes in nine series. It gave Honeywell $15.1 billion for the spin-off: $9.1 billion in cash and $6.0 billion of the notes. Debt is the face value of the notes. The balance sheet at September 26, 2026 shows long-term debt of $15.85 billion, net of issue costs. Total equity was negative $2.49 billion at September 26, 2026, from negative $5.6 billion at June 27. Pension assets of $3.04 billion now on the balance sheet explain most of that change. The negative equity comes from the payment to the former parent, not from losses, so it is not a sign of distress by itself. The fixed-rate notes have an average coupon of about 5.0%, and $0.5 billion floats with SOFR. Only $1.25 billion is due before 2029. Cash was $1.56 billion at September 26, 2026, so net debt was about $14.4 billion. That is about 3.3 times the guided 2026 adjusted EBIT of $4.375 to $4.425 billion. Two undrawn credit lines, $1.0 billion for 364 days and $3.0 billion for five years, back a $4.0 billion commercial paper program. The company also pays Honeywell $1.125 billion over five years, in monthly payments of $18.75 million, for the right to use the Honeywell name. This works like extra debt, and it cost $54 million in the third quarter. Net interest expense was $187 million in the third quarter. Free cash flow was $500 million in the quarter, and the company guides $1.2 to $1.4 billion for the second half. The board approved a $3.5 billion buyback on July 23, 2026, and a first dividend of $0.40 per share on October 28, 2026, about $127 million each quarter for 317.0 million shares. Both compete with debt reduction until earnings recover from the parts shortage.
As of
Show 4 sourcesHide sources
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/2089271/000208927126000031/exhibit991q32026earningsre.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/2089271/000208927126000031/hona-20261028.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/2089271/000208927126000021/hona-20260627.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/2089271/000162828026043193/exhibit991-informationstat.htm
Dividends
Honeywell Aerospace does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about Honeywell Aerospace
What does Honeywell Aerospace do?
Honeywell Aerospace makes equipment and parts for aircraft and spacecraft. Its main product lines are avionics and navigation systems, engines and auxiliary power units, and aircraft control systems, plus satellite communication products, including laser links. Its market cap is $54B at the current price of $169.53.
When does Honeywell Aerospace report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Honeywell Aerospace may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is Honeywell Aerospace stock below its intrinsic value?
Honeywell Aerospace stock is far below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Honeywell Aerospace?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. Honeywell Aerospace reported third-quarter 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Honeywell Aerospace?
A shortage of mechanical parts, such as castings and forgings, from a small number of suppliers forced Honeywell Aerospace to cut its full-year 2026 organic sales growth guidance from 7%-9% to 4%-5%, and cut adjusted EBIT guidance by about $300 million, in its very first quarter as a public company. Honeywell Aerospace issued about $16 billion of senior notes to fund its own spin-off from Honeywell Technologies.
How much debt and cash does Honeywell Aerospace have?
At September 26, 2026, Honeywell Aerospace had $16.0B of debt and $1.6B of cash.
Does Honeywell Aerospace pay a dividend?
No. Honeywell Aerospace does not pay a dividend.
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