AEPElectric utility
American Electric Power
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $129.21
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 28 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $70B
- Shares of May 5, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 3.0%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.0%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.1
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $6.76
- 12 months to Mar 31, 2026
- 52-week range
- $112.54 – $140.58
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.45
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 3.8M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices AEP for the cost of a $100 billion building plan paid partly with new shares, and earnings growth in line with its new guidance as data centers come online can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The full-year 2026 report and the funding plan for the $100 billion capital plan in early 2027 show whether data center load and earnings growth arrive as planned.
Company guidance: Operating EPS of $6.25 to $6.55 for 2026 (at or above the high end) and $6.75 to $7.05 for 2027 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
American Electric Power (AEP) is one of the largest regulated electric utilities in the United States. Its companies, such as AEP Ohio, AEP Texas and Appalachian Power, deliver power to 5.6 million customers in 11 states. AEP operates the largest electric transmission system in the country, with 40,000 line miles, and more than 253,000 miles of distribution lines. It owns or contracts about 34,000 megawatts of generating capacity.
State and federal regulators set its rates, so earnings grow mostly with the investment on which its utilities may earn a return. AEP plans to invest $100 billion from 2027 through 2031. Data centers, hyperscalers and industrial customers signed agreements for 84 gigawatts of new load by 2031.
Thesis
The market prices AEP for the cost and risk of a very large building plan. In October 2026, AEP raised its five-year capital plan to $100 billion for 2027 through 2031, from $78 billion for 2026 through 2030. To pay for this, it issues new debt and new shares. At September 30, 2026, about 48 million new shares were still in forward sale agreements, and the Q3 release did not say how much new equity the larger plan needs.
Total debt rose to $54.4 billion at September 30, 2026, from $48.8 billion at December 31, 2025. Regulators and customers also watch power bills closely, and growth depends on data center customers that must take the power as planned. Q3 2026 operating EPS rose to $2.23 from $1.80, and AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the high end of its $6.25 to $6.55 range. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
AEP must earn its new operating EPS guidance of $6.75 to $7.05 for 2027 and $7.40 to $7.70 for 2028, on the way to its target of 9% to 11% growth a year from 2027 through 2031. The 84 gigawatts of contracted new load must come online under take-or-pay agreements. State regulators must keep approving large load tariffs and new generation, and AEP must fund the plan without a large new share sale. The full-year 2026 report in early 2027 and the funding plan for the larger capital plan are the next tests.
If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a delay in data center demand, which would leave AEP with costly new plants and lines.
Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026PassedQ3 2026 earnings: guidance and new loadYear-to-date operating EPS on track for the $6.25 to $6.55 guidance and signed new load at 69 gigawatts or more pass; a cut to the guidance or lost load agreements fail.Outcome: AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the high end of $6.25 to $6.55, and contracted new load rose to 84 gigawatts by 2031.
- Jan 28, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and the funding plan2026 operating EPS at or above $6.55, the 2027 guidance of $6.75 to $7.05 kept and a funding plan for the $100 billion capital plan without a large new share sale pass; a guidance cut or a large new share sale fails.
Recent events
- October 28, 2026AEP reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $2.18, and operating EPS rose to $2.23 from $1.80. AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the high end of its $6.25 to $6.55 range. It gave operating EPS guidance of $6.75 to $7.05 for 2027 and $7.40 to $7.70 for 2028, and it expects operating EPS growth of 9% to 11% a year from 2027 through 2031. It raised its five-year capital plan to $100 billion through 2031. It signed 15 gigawatts of new load in the quarter, for 84 gigawatts of contracted new load by 2031.
- September 29, 2026Alicia Knapp, President Nuclear Development of AEP, left the company in an involuntary separation.
- July 30, 2026AEP reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.31 and operating EPS was $1.36, down from $1.43, because of the 2025 transmission minority interest sale and the timing of tax items. AEP raised its 2026 operating EPS guidance to $6.25 to $6.55. Signed new load grew by 6 gigawatts to 69 gigawatts through 2030, and AEP secured about 13 gigawatts of gas turbine capacity. AEP Texas secured a DOE loan of up to $3.3 billion for transmission projects.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- July 20, 2026The board elected David S. Marriott, Chairman of Marriott International, and Charles J. Meyers, Executive Chairman of Equinix, as directors.
- May 13, 2026AEP agreed to sell 23,543,308 new shares through forward sale agreements with three banks, including the underwriters' option of 3,070,866 shares. The initial forward price is $124.968 per share, and AEP expects to settle on or before May 31, 2028.
- January 4, 2026An unregulated AEP company agreed to buy solid oxide fuel cells for about $2.65 billion for a power plant near Cheyenne, Wyoming. A high investment grade customer agreed to buy all of its output for 20 years, subject to conditions.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 28, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 28, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · aep-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · aep-20260929
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · aep-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · aep-20260720
- 8-KNew material agreement and Other company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · aep-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · aep-20260428
Risks
- Growth depends on large new customers, mostly data centers and hyperscalers, with 84 gigawatts of contracted new load by 2031. If these customers delay or cancel projects, AEP may build plants and lines that it does not need, although take-or-pay agreements give some protection.
- The $100 billion investment plan for 2027 through 2031 needs large amounts of new debt and new shares. Total debt rose to $54.4 billion at September 30, 2026, and about 48 million new shares were still in forward sale agreements. Higher interest rates or a lower share price make this funding more costly.
- Regulators in 11 states set AEP's rates. Higher power bills can cause regulators to approve lower returns or smaller rate increases. In Q2 2026, Ohio approved a distribution base rate decrease for customers. In 2026, AEP also recorded partial disallowances of costs for the Pirkey Plant in Texas and for a tracker mechanism.
- AEP plans new gas, fuel cell and possibly nuclear generation. Large projects can cost more or take longer than planned, and AEP's head of nuclear development left the company in September 2026.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $418M
- Debt
- $54.4B
- Net debt
- $54.0B
- Interest cover
- 2.5×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $54.0B
When the debt is due
AEP funds its utilities with long-term bonds, securitization bonds, commercial paper and new shares. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $54.42 billion: long-term debt of $52.54 billion, including $2.68 billion due within one year, and short-term debt of $1.88 billion. The amount due within 12 months includes the long-term debt due within one year and the short-term debt. Debt was 61.5% of total capitalization, up from 60.3% at December 31, 2025. The debt ratio that its credit agreements define was 56.0%, against a limit of 67.5%. Cash was $418 million. AEP had revolving credit facilities of $6.5 billion until April 2031 and $1.5 billion until April 2029, and $975 million of commercial paper was outstanding. Net available liquidity was $7.44 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. About 48 million shares remained in forward sale agreements, with expected proceeds of about $5.4 billion when AEP settles them by 2028.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.0% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $129.21)
- Paid per share
- $3.82 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $3.88 ($0.97 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 56% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- November 10, 2026, $0.97 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $2.27 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.39 | |
| 2018 | $2.53 | |
| 2019 | $2.71 | |
| 2020 | $2.84 | |
| 2021 | $3.00 | |
| 2022 | $3.17 | |
| 2023 | $3.37 | |
| 2024 | $3.57 | |
| 2025 | $3.74 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 5.7% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 5.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about American Electric Power
What does American Electric Power do?
American Electric Power (AEP) is one of the largest regulated electric utilities in the United States. Its companies, such as AEP Ohio, AEP Texas and Appalachian Power, deliver power to 5.6 million customers in 11 states. Its market cap is $70B at the current price of $129.21.
When does American Electric Power report earnings next?
This is an estimate: American Electric Power may report on January 28, 2027. It last reported results on October 28, 2026.
Is American Electric Power stock below its intrinsic value?
American Electric Power stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at American Electric Power?
The latest update is from October 28, 2026. AEP reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for American Electric Power?
Growth depends on large new customers, mostly data centers and hyperscalers, with 84 gigawatts of contracted new load by 2031. The $100 billion investment plan for 2027 through 2031 needs large amounts of new debt and new shares. Regulators in 11 states set AEP's rates.
How much debt and cash does American Electric Power have?
At September 30, 2026, American Electric Power had $54.4B of debt and $418M of cash.
Does American Electric Power pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of American Electric Power is $3.88 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.0% at the current price of $129.21. In the last 12 months, it paid $3.82 per share (3.0%). The latest ex-dividend date was November 10, 2026.
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