Ambev

Ambev is the largest brewer in Brazil and makes beer and soft drinks in Latin America and Canada. Its brands include Brahma, Skol, Antarctica and Guarana Antarctica, and it also sells AB InBev brands such as Corona and Spaten in its markets. It reports five business units: Brazil Beer, Brazil non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), Central America and the Caribbean (CAC), Latin America South (LAS, which includes Argentina and Bolivia) and Canada. Brazil Beer is the largest unit, with R$10.1 billion of the R$21.6 billion of net revenue in Q3 2026.

Ambev makes money from the margin between the price of its drinks and the cost of malt, aluminum cans, sugar and distribution. It sells to small bars and shops through its BEES ordering app and to consumers through the Ze Delivery app. In 2025, its normalized EBITDA was R$29.5 billion, with a margin of 33.4%. AB InBev owned 62.3% of its shares on February 18, 2026.

Ambev trades at a discount because the market doubts that its 2026 beer growth will last. Total volume fell 3.3% in 2025. In Q2 2026, Brazil beer volume grew 5.0%, but part of this growth came from the FIFA World Cup, which does not repeat in 2027. In Q3 2026, Brazil beer volume grew only 0.5%, and Brazil beer EBITDA margin fell 1.3 points because costs and marketing spend rose.

Volumes fell again in Latin America South and Canada. Investors also fear Brazil's new Selective Tax on alcoholic drinks, which is to start on January 1, 2027. As of October 29, 2026, the government had not set the rates, so the future tax cost on beer is not known. On October 27, 2026, a press report said that the government plans to keep the 2027 tax burden near the current level and to set new rates from 2028.

Costs are a third concern, because management expects Brazil beer cash cost per hectoliter to rise 4.5% to 7.5% in 2026. For the gap to close, Brazil beer volume must keep growing after the World Cup, normalized EBITDA must keep growing faster than revenue, and the Selective Tax rate on beer must keep the total tax burden near its current level. Ambev must also keep its net cash position while it pays interest on capital and buys back shares. The Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026 passed: volume grew in Brazil beer and soft drinks, and normalized EBITDA grew 8.9%.

The next tests are the Selective Tax rates, which the government must still publish, and the full-year 2026 report in early 2027, with the first view of 2027 after the tax starts. If volumes hold and the tax stays neutral, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main risk is a high Selective Tax rate that forces price increases and cuts beer volume.

1. Oct 29, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 results: Brazil beer volume and marginBrazil beer volume that still grows after the World Cup and normalized EBITDA growth above revenue growth pass; a fall in Brazil beer volume or a lower EBITDA margin fails.Outcome: Brazil beer volume grew 0.5% and normalized EBITDA grew 8.9% against revenue growth of 7.6%, though the Brazil beer EBITDA margin fell 1.3 points.
2. Q4 2026 · est.Due this quarter

   Selective Tax rates on beerRates that keep the total tax burden on beer near its current level pass; a rate that forces large price increases on beer fails.
3. Jan 29, 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 viewPositive beer volume for 2026, stable net cash and a clear plan for the Selective Tax pass; lower volume or a lower margin in Brazil beer fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 29, 2026Ambev reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue was R$21.6 billion, up 7.6% on an organic basis, and total volume grew 0.8%. Normalized EBITDA was R$7.3 billion, up 8.9%, with a margin of 33.7%. Brazil beer volume grew 0.5% and Brazil beer EBITDA grew 1.0%. Brazil soft drink volume grew 3.6%. Normalized profit was R$4.4 billion, up 14.3%. Management kept its 2026 cost guidance and said it had hedged its real to US dollar exposure for all of 2027.
• October 28, 2026The Board approved a new share buyback program of up to 190 million common shares, about R$2.9 billion at the October 28 closing price, to run until April 28, 2028. Ambev plans to cancel most of the shares it buys.
• October 27, 2026A press report said that Brazil's finance minister expected to send the provisional measure with the Selective Tax rates that week. The report said that the government plans to keep the 2027 tax burden near the current IPI tax level and to set new rates from 2028. The rates were not published by October 29, 2026.

Last earnings

October 29, 2026

Next earnings

Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed March 3, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed March 12, 2025 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1565025)

• Brazil's new Selective Tax on alcoholic drinks is to start in 2027. As of October 29, 2026, the government had not published the rates. A press report of October 27, 2026 said that the government plans to keep the 2027 burden near the current level, but rates from 2028 are not known. A high rate on beer can force price increases and cut volume in Ambev's largest business.
• Beer demand in Brazil depends on consumer income, weather and large events. Total volume fell 3.3% in 2025. Part of the Brazil beer growth in Q2 2026 came from the FIFA World Cup, so 2027 has a harder comparison. In Q3 2026, Brazil beer volume grew only 0.5%.
• Costs rise. Management expects Brazil beer cash cost per hectoliter to rise 4.5% to 7.5% in 2026, from commodity prices such as aluminum and malt and from a weaker real against the US dollar. If Ambev cannot raise prices enough, its margin falls.
• Ambev reports in Brazilian reais, and the ADR trades in US dollars, so a weaker real lowers the ADR value of its profits. Argentina adds hyperinflation, which reduced profit by R$123.4 million in Q2 2026, and Bolivia had social unrest that cut volume in Q2 2026.
• AB InBev controls Ambev with 62.3% of its shares (72.6% with the FAHZ foundation) on February 18, 2026. Minority shareholders have little influence on strategy, dividends or deals with AB InBev.

Ambev had net cash of R$19.2 billion at September 30, 2026, up from R$15.4 billion at June 30, 2026 and R$16.9 billion at December 31, 2025. Cash includes R$19.2 billion of cash and equivalents, net of bank overdrafts, and R$2.7 billion of short-term investment securities. Read more

Yield at the current rate

2.0% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $2.80)

Paid per share

$0.023 in the last 12 months (2 payments)

Current annual rate

$0.056 ($0.014 × 4 a year)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 23, 2026, $0.014 per share

Fewer payments or a raise. The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend.

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 2.7% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 11.2% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.