CF Industries

CF Industries makes ammonia and other nitrogen products, such as granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. Farmers use most of these products as fertilizer, and industry uses the rest. Its plants are mainly in the United States and Canada, and it also has operations in the United Kingdom. Natural gas is its main raw material.

Gross ammonia production was 7.2 million tons in the first nine months of 2026. CF owns 40% of the Blue Point One joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, which is building a low-carbon ammonia plant in Modeste, Louisiana, and it consolidates the venture. CHS Inc. owns part of CF Industries Nitrogen and receives semi-annual distributions.

The market prices CF Industries for nitrogen prices that are high now but can fall. Nitrogen prices rose in 2026 because the conflict with Iran cut Middle East supply, and net earnings were $1.78 billion in the first nine months of 2026. By the end of Q2 2026, prices had returned to pre-conflict levels as seasonal demand fell, and CF's average Q3 2026 prices for ammonia, urea and UAN were 21% to 29% lower than in Q2. Demand came back in Q3 2026 and prices rose through the quarter, but CF estimates that only about half of the usual urea exports from the Middle East have left the Persian Gulf region since the conflict began.

The Yazoo City complex has been out of production since an incident in November 2025, and CF is also building the Blue Point complex, which needs large capital spending. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nitrogen supply must stay tight into 2027, as management expects, so that prices stay above the cost of high-cost European producers. Yazoo City must restart in the first half of 2027, with a large part of the cost covered by insurance.

Blue Point construction must stay on budget and on schedule; on November 4, 2026, CF kept the cost estimate of about $3.7 billion and the 2029 start for Blue Point One. The Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027, shows prices and the Yazoo City restoration cost. If these checks pass, the gap can close over a full price cycle. The main reason it may not close is a fall in nitrogen prices when Middle East exports recover or new capacity starts.

1. Nov 4, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 earnings: prices after the supply shockStrong fall fill demand and a positive outlook for supply and demand into 2027 pass; a sharp fall in realized prices or a weaker outlook fail.Outcome: Demand was strong and CF kept a positive outlook into 2027, but its average prices for ammonia, urea and UAN fell 21% to 29% from Q2 2026.
2. Feb 4, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results: prices and Yazoo City costRealized prices at or above the Q3 2026 level and a final Yazoo City cost with most of it covered by insurance pass; lower prices or a large uninsured cost fail.
3. Q2 2027 · est.Pending

   Yazoo City restartsYazoo City resumes production in the first half of 2027 with most of the cost covered by insurance pass; a delay past mid-2027 or a large uninsured cost fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 4, 2026CF Industries reported Q3 2026 results. Net earnings were $436 million, or $2.87 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $833 million. Sales volumes rose 7%, or about 13% without the Yazoo City outage, as buyers made purchases they had delayed. Average prices for ammonia, urea and UAN were 21% to 29% lower than in Q2 2026. CF bought back 3.0 million shares for $367 million. It expects nitrogen supply and demand to stay favorable into 2027, Yazoo City to restart in the first half of 2027 with a large part of the cost covered by insurance, and about 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia production in 2026.
• October 7, 2026CF Industries declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, payable on November 30, 2026. It confirmed that it will report Q3 2026 results after the market closes on November 4, 2026.
• August 5, 2026CF Industries reported Q2 2026 results. Net earnings were $727 million, or $4.73 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $1.19 billion. Prices were higher because the conflict with Iran cut supply, but sales volumes fell 15%, partly because of the Yazoo City outage. CF raised its quarterly dividend 20% to $0.60, and the Blue Point complex received the permits to start construction in August 2026.

Last earnings

November 4, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 5, 2026 · cf-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 4, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 4, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled September 3, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 6, 2026 · cf-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 5, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 5, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed May 7, 2026 · cf-20260331
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled May 5, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled May 4, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1324404)

• Earnings depend on global nitrogen prices, which CF cannot control. Prices returned to pre-conflict levels by the end of Q2 2026, and CF's average Q3 2026 prices for ammonia, urea and UAN were 21% to 29% lower than in Q2. CF expects Chinese urea exports in 2026 to be 2 to 4 million metric tons higher than in 2025. More exports from the Middle East, China or new plants can lower prices and earnings quickly.
• Natural gas is the main cost. The cost of gas in cost of sales was $3.63 per MMBtu in the first nine months of 2026, up from $3.34, but $2.88 in Q3 2026. Higher North American gas prices lower CF's cost advantage over other producers.
• The Yazoo City complex has been out since November 2025, and CF expects it to restart in the first half of 2027. A later restart, or repair costs that insurance does not cover, lowers volumes and earnings.
• CF expects capital spending of about $1.3 billion in 2026, partly for Blue Point. Cost overruns or delays at Blue Point lower the return on this investment.

CF Industries has only public senior notes and no bank debt drawn. Senior notes were $3.25 billion of principal at September 30, 2026, with a carrying value of $3.22 billion: $750 million due 2034, $1.0 billion due 2035, $750 million due 2043 and $750 million due 2044. Read more

Yield at the current rate

1.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

1.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $123.24)

Paid per share

$2.10 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$2.40 ($0.60 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

22% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

August 14, 2026, $0.60 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 10.8% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 5.2% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.