SPGMall & outlet REIT
Simon Property Group
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $234.75
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 5 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $76B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 3.8%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.8%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.9
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $13.85
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $177.88 – $238.50
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.30
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.3M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Simon like other REITs that move with interest rates and doubts its new CEO, and steady NOI growth with stable rates and disciplined leadership can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance under the new CEO in February 2027 show whether NOI growth continues, but long-term rates also matter.
Company guidance: Real Estate FFO of $13.30 to $13.40 per diluted share for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
Simon Property Group is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns shopping malls, Premium Outlets and other retail and mixed-use properties, mostly in the United States. It earns most of its income from rent paid by retailers, restaurants and entertainment tenants. At September 30, 2026, its U.S. malls and Premium Outlets were 96.5% occupied, and tenants had sales of $852 per square foot over the prior 12 months.
Simon also holds a stake in Klépierre, a European mall owner, and other platform investments in retail brands. In October 2025, it completed a transaction for The Taubman Realty Group, in which it already held an interest. The company has its head office in Indianapolis and is in the S&P 100.
Thesis
The market prices Simon like other REITs, whose values move with long-term interest rates, and it doubts that physical retail can keep growing against online shopping. Simon also has a new leader: David Simon, its Chairman and CEO for many years, died on March 22, 2026, and the board appointed Eli Simon, 38, its Chief Operating Officer, as CEO and President. The company's results are strong: in Q3 2026, Real Estate FFO per share rose 4.7%, domestic property NOI rose 6.6%, tenant sales per square foot rose 14.8% and occupancy rose to 96.5%. Simon raised its 2026 guidance for Real Estate FFO again, to $13.30 to $13.40 per share, and raised its dividend.
For the gap to close, three things must be true. NOI must keep growing at a mid to high single digit rate, with occupancy near 96% and rent per square foot rising. The new CEO must keep the same discipline in leasing, development and capital use, with stable credit ratings of A from S&P and A3 from Moody's. Long-term interest rates must stay stable, as Simon refinances debt at rates above its current average of about 4.3%; its new secured loans in Q3 2026 cost 6.33%.
The 2027 guidance with the Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher long-term interest rates, which raise financing costs and lower the value of rental income.
Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: NOI and occupancyDomestic property NOI growth of 5% or more, occupancy near 96% and the 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance kept or raised pass; lower guidance or a fall in occupancy fails.Outcome: Domestic property NOI rose 6.6%, occupancy rose to 96.5% and Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.30 to $13.40 per share.
- Feb 5, 2027 · est.Pending2027 guidance under the new CEO2027 guidance for Real Estate FFO growth near the 2026 rate and a steady dividend policy pass; guidance for flat FFO or a cut in investment plans fails.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026Simon reported Q3 2026 results. Real Estate FFO was $3.37 per diluted share, up 4.7%, and net income was $1.54 per diluted share, with $0.27 of non-cash losses on the Klépierre exchangeable bonds and an equity investment. Domestic property NOI rose 6.6%. Occupancy of U.S. malls and Premium Outlets was 96.5%, and base minimum rent rose 6.1% to $62.75 per square foot. Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.30 to $13.40 per share and raised the quarterly dividend to $2.30, up 4.5% from a year earlier. It bought back $236.5 million of shares in the quarter.
- October 6, 2026Simon said it will report Q3 2026 results after the market close on November 5, 2026.
- August 10, 2026Simon reported Q2 2026 results. Real Estate FFO was $3.29 per diluted share, up 7.9%, and net income was $1.49 per diluted share. Domestic property NOI rose 8.5%. Occupancy of U.S. malls and Premium Outlets was 96.0%, and base minimum rent rose 6.3% to $62.42 per square foot. Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.20 to $13.30 per share and raised the quarterly dividend to $2.25, up 4.7% from a year earlier. It bought back $211.4 million of shares and units in the quarter.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- March 23, 2026Simon announced the death of David Simon, its Chairman, CEO and President. The board appointed Eli Simon, the Chief Operating Officer, as CEO and President.
- March 5, 2026Simon amended and extended its $5.0 billion senior unsecured multi-currency revolving credit facility.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 5, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · spg-20260930x10q
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · spg-20260630x10q
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · spg-20260331x10q
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · spg-20251231x10k
Risks
- Higher long-term interest rates raise the cost of refinancing the debt, which was $35.4 billion at Simon's share at September 30, 2026, and lower the value that investors give to rental income.
- Retailer bankruptcies and store closures can lower occupancy and rent. Online shopping continues to take a share of retail sales.
- Eli Simon became CEO in March 2026 after the death of David Simon. A new leader can change strategy or capital allocation, and the market will judge his record over the next years.
- Simon has investments outside its core malls, such as Klépierre and retail brand platforms. Losses or impairments in these investments can lower earnings.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.3B
- Debt
- $35.4B
- Net debt
- $34.1B
- Interest cover
- 4.6×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $7.7B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $34.1B
Credit ratings
- S&P A · stable
- Moody's A3 · positive
Simon funds itself mostly with unsecured notes, mortgages and revolving credit. At September 30, 2026, total debt at Simon's share, including its share of joint venture debt, was $35.4 billion, of which consolidated debt at Simon's share was $27.9 billion. Of the total, 94.8% had a fixed rate, at an average of 4.21%, and the average rate of all of it was 4.27%, with an average time to maturity of 6.4 years. Liquidity was about $9.0 billion: $1.3 billion of cash, including its share of joint venture cash, and $7.7 billion of available capacity under $8.5 billion of revolving credit facilities, net of $755 million of commercial paper. In Q3 2026, Simon issued $800 million of senior notes at an average coupon of 5.45% and closed about $970 million of secured loans at an average rate of 6.33%. The fixed charge coverage ratio under its bond covenants was 4.6 times, and total debt was 36% of total assets as the covenants define them. S&P rates Simon A with a stable outlook, and Moody's rates it A3 with a positive outlook.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.8% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $234.75)
- Paid per share
- $8.90 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $9.00 ($2.25 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 60% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 9, 2026, $2.25 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $6.50 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $7.15 | |
| 2018 | $7.90 | |
| 2019 | $8.30 | |
| 2020 | $6.00 | |
| 2021 | $5.85 | |
| 2022 | $6.90 | |
| 2023 | $7.45 | |
| 2024 | $8.10 | |
| 2025 | $8.55 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 7.3% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 3.5% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Simon Property Group
What does Simon Property Group do?
Simon Property Group is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns shopping malls, Premium Outlets and other retail and mixed-use properties, mostly in the United States. It earns most of its income from rent paid by retailers, restaurants and entertainment tenants. Its market cap is $76B at the current price of $234.75.
When does Simon Property Group report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Simon Property Group may report on February 5, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.
Is Simon Property Group stock below its intrinsic value?
Simon Property Group stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Simon Property Group?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Simon reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Simon Property Group?
Higher long-term interest rates raise the cost of refinancing the debt, which was $35.4 billion at Simon's share at September 30, 2026, and lower the value that investors give to rental income. Retailer bankruptcies and store closures can lower occupancy and rent. Eli Simon became CEO in March 2026 after the death of David Simon.
How much debt and cash does Simon Property Group have?
At September 30, 2026, Simon Property Group had $35.4B of debt and $1.3B of cash.
Does Simon Property Group pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Simon Property Group is $9.00 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.8% at the current price of $234.75. In the last 12 months, it paid $8.90 per share (3.8%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 9, 2026.
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