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DTEGYTelecommunications

Deutsche Telekom

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$29.04
Analysts view
Very bullish
Discount category
Far below intrinsic value
Pick status
Top pick
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 25 ·
History
Market cap
$141B
Shares of Sep 30, 2026
Yield at current rate
4.0%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
4.0%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
52-week range
$26.90 – $40.58
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.41
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
809K
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

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In short

Thesis
The market fears new competition for T-Mobile US and discounts the holding structure, so years of steady US growth and buy-backs must come for the gap to close.
Gap
Slow. The fear of new US competition fades only over years of T-Mobile US growth, and the holding structure keeps part of the discount.

Company guidance: Adjusted EBITDA AL of ~EUR 47.6 billion and free cash flow AL of ~EUR 20.1 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 results press release)

Price history

About

Deutsche Telekom is a large telecom company based in Germany. It sells mobile, broadband, fiber and TV services to consumers and businesses in Germany and in several other European countries, and IT services through T-Systems. It also controls T-Mobile US, a large US wireless carrier. At June 30, 2026, Deutsche Telekom owned a 54.2% stake in T-Mobile US, net of T-Mobile US's own treasury shares, and it could vote 55.1% of the shares.

T-Mobile US gives most of the group's revenue and EBITDA, so its share price and the US dollar drive much of Deutsche Telekom's value. Customers pay monthly fees, so revenue is steady. The German state and its bank KfW together own 28.6% of the shares. This listing is an American Depositary Receipt of the shares that trade in Frankfurt.

Thesis

Deutsche Telekom trades at a discount because the market fears new competition for T-Mobile US, its largest asset, and because a holding company rarely trades at the full value of its stakes. The company says that the SpaceX IPO, completed in June 2026, dominated the market for US telecom stocks in the first half of 2026, and investors fear SpaceX as a future competitor. The T-Share fell to its low for the half year, EUR 23.85, on June 30, 2026.

On October 9, 2026, T-Mobile US fell about 13% and Deutsche Telekom fell about 9%, after press reports that SpaceX had bought low-band spectrum from Grain Management. Analysts also point to more promotions from Verizon and AT&T. The operating results stay strong: adjusted EBITDA AL grew 8.0% in organic terms in Q3 2026, Deutsche Telekom raised its 2026 guidance again in November 2026, and it plans a 10% higher dividend and up to EUR 2 billion of buy-backs in 2027.

For the gap to close, T-Mobile US must keep adding postpaid accounts inside its guidance of 950,000 to 1,050,000 for 2026 and keep EBITDA growth near 10%, satellite services must stay a small threat to ground networks, and Deutsche Telekom must meet its 2026 targets of about EUR 47.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and about EUR 2.20 of adjusted EPS. The next test is the full-year report on February 25, 2027. If US growth holds, part of the gap can close over two to three years, but the holding structure keeps some discount.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 5, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: T-Mobile US growth and guidanceOrganic adjusted EBITDA AL growth near 7%, T-Mobile US postpaid account growth on track for its 2026 guidance and confirmed group guidance pass; slower US account growth or a cut to guidance fails.Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA AL grew 8.0% in organic terms, T-Mobile US is on track for its postpaid account target and Deutsche Telekom raised its 2026 guidance.
  2. Feb 25, 2027Pending
    Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance2026 targets met, 2027 guidance with growth in adjusted EBITDA AL and EPS, and continued buy-backs pass; lower US growth guidance fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 5, 2026Deutsche Telekom reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue grew 5.5% in organic terms to EUR 31.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA AL grew 8.0% in organic terms to EUR 12.2 billion, and adjusted net profit rose 12.7% to EUR 3.0 billion. T-Mobile US added 274,000 postpaid accounts and is on track for its 2026 target. Deutsche Telekom raised its 2026 guidance to about EUR 47.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and about EUR 20.1 billion of free cash flow AL, and kept adjusted EPS at about EUR 2.20. It plans a dividend of EUR 1.10 per share for 2026, up 10%, and share buy-backs of up to EUR 2 billion in 2027.
  • October 19, 2026Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone signed a letter of intent to study a joint bid for European 2 GHz mobile satellite spectrum, for direct-to-device services, press reports said. The current licenses in this band end in May 2027.
  • October 9, 2026T-Mobile US fell about 13% and Deutsche Telekom's ADR fell about 9%. Press reports tied the fall to news that SpaceX had bought low-band 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, which raised fears of a new wireless competitor. Verizon and AT&T also fell.
Show 5 older events
  • October 5, 2026At an AI Investor Day in Bonn, Deutsche Telekom confirmed its guidance and medium-term targets. It aims for about EUR 800 million of AI-related revenue from business outside the US by 2030, from about EUR 250 million in 2026. It expects about EUR 1.1 billion of gross savings from AI and automation outside the US by 2027 and about EUR 2.5 billion of indirect cost savings by 2030, both against 2023.
  • August 17, 2026Deutsche Telekom agreed to buy Fiberhost, a Polish fiber network operator, and Inea, a Polish broadband and TV provider, from Macquarie Asset Management for an enterprise value of about EUR 1 billion. The deal adds over 300,000 customers and a network that passes over 1.4 million homes to T-Mobile Polska.
  • August 6, 2026Deutsche Telekom reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue grew 3.3% in organic terms to EUR 29.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA AL grew 7.3% to EUR 11.8 billion, and adjusted net profit rose 11.1% to EUR 2.8 billion. It raised 2026 free cash flow AL guidance to about EUR 20.0 billion. The same day, it raised its 2026 share buy-back by up to EUR 3 billion, to up to EUR 5 billion, and said the shares trade at the low end of their historical valuation range.
  • June 22, 2026Fitch raised Deutsche Telekom's credit rating to A- with a stable outlook. S&P had raised its rating to A- on May 11, 2026.
  • May 13, 2026Deutsche Telekom reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenue grew 4.7% in organic terms to EUR 29.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA AL grew 7.5% to EUR 11.5 billion. It raised its 2026 guidance to about EUR 47.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and more than EUR 19.8 billion of free cash flow AL, and kept adjusted EPS guidance at about EUR 2.20.

Risks

  • T-Mobile US is most of the group's value. New competition, such as satellite services from SpaceX, or price competition from Verizon and AT&T can slow its customer growth and lower its share price. Deutsche Telekom's share price follows it.
  • A weaker US dollar lowers the value of T-Mobile US results in euros. Exchange rate effects already lowered reported growth in the first half of 2026.
  • In Germany, the number of broadband lines falls as customers leave copper lines, and only part of them move to fiber. Broadband customers fell by 20,000 in Q2 2026.
  • Net debt including leases was EUR 134.2 billion at September 30, 2026, up EUR 1.7 billion in nine months, mainly because of share buy-backs at T-Mobile US and Deutsche Telekom. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt.
  • The German state owns 28.6% of the shares with KfW. Regulation of telecom prices, spectrum and network rules in Europe and the US can limit returns.

Balance sheet

Cash
€8.2B
Debt
€113.4B
Net debt
€105.1B
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3×
EBITDA €46.4B, last 12 months

Cash against debt

Cash€8.2B
Debt€113.4B

debt covered by cashnet debt €105.1B

Leverage: net debt / EBITDA

low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×

Credit ratings

  • Moody's A3 · stable
  • S&P A- · stable
  • Fitch A- · stable

At September 30, 2026, Deutsche Telekom had EUR 8.2 billion of cash and EUR 113.4 billion of financial liabilities: EUR 93.6 billion of bonds and other securitized liabilities, EUR 4.4 billion of bank loans, EUR 3.1 billion of liabilities backed by trade receivables and EUR 12.3 billion of other financial liabilities. Debt here does not include EUR 35.7 billion of lease liabilities.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
4.0% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
4.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $29.04)
Paid per share
$1.159 in the last 12 months (1 payment)
Current annual rate
$1.159 ($1.159 × 1 a year)
Latest ex-dividend date
April 7, 2026, $1.159 per share

Dividends per share by year

Deutsche Telekom dividends per share by year
2016
$0.606
2017
$0.66
2018
$0.798
2019
$0.784
2020
$0.655
2021
$0.715
2022
$0.70
2023
$0.745
2024
$0.835
2025
$1.023

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 9.3% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 6.2% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Deutsche Telekom

What does Deutsche Telekom do?

Deutsche Telekom is a large telecom company based in Germany. It sells mobile, broadband, fiber and TV services to consumers and businesses in Germany and in several other European countries, and IT services through T-Systems. Its market cap is $141B at the current price of $29.04.

When does Deutsche Telekom report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on February 25, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.

Is Deutsche Telekom stock below its intrinsic value?

Deutsche Telekom stock is far below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Deutsche Telekom?

The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Deutsche Telekom reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Deutsche Telekom?

T-Mobile US is most of the group's value. A weaker US dollar lowers the value of T-Mobile US results in euros. In Germany, the number of broadband lines falls as customers leave copper lines, and only part of them move to fiber.

How much debt and cash does Deutsche Telekom have?

At September 30, 2026, Deutsche Telekom had €113.4B of debt and €8.2B of cash.

Does Deutsche Telekom pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Deutsche Telekom is $1.159 per share. That is a dividend yield of 4.0% at the current price of $29.04. The latest ex-dividend date was April 7, 2026.

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