Moody's

Moody's has two segments. Moody's Investors Service (MIS) gives credit ratings to bonds, loans and other debt of companies, banks, governments and structured finance deals. Issuers pay a fee for each new rating, which is transaction revenue, and annual fees to keep ratings up to date, which is recurring revenue. Moody's Analytics (MA) sells data, research, software and risk models to banks, insurers and other firms, mostly as subscriptions.

In Q2 2026, MIS gave $1.26 billion of revenue and MA gave $925 million. About 99% of MA revenue was recurring, and its annualized recurring revenue (ARR) was $3.7 billion at June 30, 2026. MIS transaction revenue moves with the amount of new debt that companies and governments issue.

The market discounts Moody's for two reasons. First, investors fear that AI will make data, research and analytics cheaper to produce, which can hurt Moody's Analytics. In early February 2026, a sell-off spread from software companies to financial data firms, and Moody's stock fell more than 17% in 2026 before its February 18 report. Second, rating revenue depends on new debt issuance, which was very strong in Q2 2026, when MIS transaction revenue grew 34%.

Investors ask whether this level can last after the Federal Reserve raised rates in September 2026. In Q3 2026, MIS revenue fell 1% from a record quarter a year earlier, as high-yield and leveraged loan issuance fell. For the gap to close, MA ARR growth, which slowed to 8% in Q3 2026, must return to about 9% or more, which shows that AI does not take its customers. MIS revenue must hold up when issuance growth slows, and Moody's must keep its adjusted operating margin within its 2026 guidance of 52% to 53%.

The next evidence comes with the full-year 2026 report and the 2027 guidance in early 2027. If MA growth holds and issuance stays healthy, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If AI tools take share from MA or a credit downturn cuts issuance, the discount can last.

1. Oct 21, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 results: MA growth and rating revenueMA ARR growth of about 9% or more and MIS revenue that still grows from a year earlier pass; MA ARR growth below 8% or a fall in MIS revenue fails.Outcome: MA ARR grew 8%, and MIS revenue fell 1% from a record Q3 2025 as high-yield and leveraged loan issuance fell.
2. Jan 21, 2027 · est.Pending

   Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance for revenue growth in the high single digits and higher adjusted EPS passes; guidance for flat revenue or a lower margin fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 21, 2026Moody's reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 1% to $2.02 billion, or 3% on an organic constant currency basis, and adjusted EPS grew 6% to $4.14. MIS revenue fell 1% to $1.09 billion against a record Q3 2025. Investment grade revenue grew 18%, but high-yield revenue fell 40% and leveraged loan revenue fell 27%. MA revenue grew 8% on an organic constant currency basis, and MA ARR grew 8% to $3.69 billion. The adjusted operating margin was 52.6%. Moody's kept its 2026 guidance, with adjusted EPS of $16.50 to $17.00. It bought back $2.6 billion of shares in the first nine months of 2026.
• September 30, 2026Moody's said that it will release Q3 2026 results before the NYSE opens on October 21, 2026.
• August 11, 2026Moody's elected Keith Demmings, the CEO of Assurant, to its board, effective November 1, 2026.

Last earnings

October 21, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 21, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 21, 2026 · mco-20260930
• 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled October 21, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled August 12, 2026 · mco-20260811
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 23, 2026 · mco-20260630
• 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled July 22, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed April 23, 2026 · mco-20260331
• 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled April 22, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled April 16, 2026 · mco-20260414
• 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled April 15, 2026 · mco-20260415
• 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 18, 2026 · mco-20251231

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1059556)

• AI tools can make data, research and risk models cheaper to produce. If customers use AI tools in place of Moody's Analytics products, MA growth and pricing can fall. This fear caused a large sell-off in February 2026.
• MIS transaction revenue depends on new debt issuance. Issuance was very strong in Q2 2026, but MIS revenue fell 1% in Q3 2026 as high-yield and leveraged loan issuance fell. Higher interest rates, a credit downturn or market stress can cut issuance and rating fees quickly.
• Credit rating agencies are regulated in the US, Europe and other markets. New rules, fines or legal cases about ratings can raise costs or limit fees.
• Moody's spends heavily on buybacks, up to $3.0 billion in 2026, and its shareholders' equity fell from $4.05 billion to $3.27 billion in the first nine months of 2026. If profit falls, debt can rise relative to EBITDA.

Moody's funds itself with unsecured senior notes of the parent company, in US dollars and euros. At September 30, 2026, debt was $6.34 billion of long-term debt and $568 million of current debt, which is the euro notes due in 2027. Read more

Yield at the current rate

0.8% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $514.93)

Paid per share

$4.03 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$4.12 ($1.03 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

28% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

August 14, 2026, $1.03 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 10.9% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 10.7% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.