TSCOSpecialty retail
Tractor Supply
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $36.74
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 22 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $19B
- Shares of Oct 24, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 2.6%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 2.6%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.8
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $1.86
- 12 months to Sep 26, 2026
- 52-week range
- $28.36 – $56.94
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.48
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 11M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Tractor Supply's growth stalled and it withdrew its long-term targets, and steady comparable sales growth with a credible new framework over four to six quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report with the new long-term framework, expected in early 2027, gives the next dated check.
Company guidance: Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.90 to $2.00 and net sales growth of +2.5% to +3.5% for fiscal 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Tractor Supply is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the US. At September 26, 2026, it ran 2,486 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states and 135 Petsense pet stores. It sells to hobby farmers, ranchers, homeowners, gardeners and pet owners. In the first half of 2026, livestock, equine and farm products such as feed, poultry and fencing gave 31% of net sales, seasonal and recreation products such as lawn and garden and power equipment 23%, companion animal products 23%, truck, tool and hardware 15%, and clothing and gifts 8%.
Many of these products, such as feed and pet food, are needs-based goods that customers buy again and again. It also owns Allivet, an online pet pharmacy, and since May 2026 VIP Petcare, the largest provider of mobile veterinary clinics in the US. Tractor Supply makes money from the margin on the goods it sells, and it opens new stores each year.
Thesis
The market prices Tractor Supply lower because its growth stalled and management cut its plans. Comparable store sales fell 1.5% in Q2 2026 because fewer customers came to the stores. On July 23, 2026, the company cut its 2026 outlook for comparable store sales to minus 1% to flat, from growth of 1% to 3%, and it cut adjusted EPS to $1.90 to $2.00. It also withdrew the long-term financial targets from its December 2024 Investor Day and closed 74 Petsense stores.
In Q3 2026, comparable store sales grew only 0.4%, transactions fell 0.3%, and gross margin fell to 36.4% from 37.4% because of higher freight and fuel costs and price investments. Investors now doubt that the store growth and the pet business can lift profit as planned. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Comparable store sales must keep growing, with more transactions, in Q4 2026 and in 2027.
The companion animal business, with the new VIP Petcare clinics, must grow at least at the company average; in Q3 2026 it still grew less. The new long-term framework with the Q4 2026 report must show a credible path back to profit growth and stable margins. The next test is the Q4 2026 report with the new framework, expected in late January 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
The main risk is that weak spending on discretionary and big-ticket items and higher costs last into 2027.
Checkpoints
- Oct 22, 2026FailedQ3 2026 results: comparable store salesPositive comparable store sales with more transactions and a kept 2026 outlook pass; a further cut to the outlook fails.Outcome: Comparable store sales grew 0.4% and the 2026 outlook stayed the same, but transactions fell 0.3%, and the test asked for more transactions.
- Jan 22, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and new long-term frameworkA framework with comparable sales growth and margin targets near the old ones passes; much lower growth targets fail.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026Tractor Supply declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share. It is payable on December 8, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 23, 2026.
- October 22, 2026Tractor Supply reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales grew 5.1% to $3.91 billion, and comparable store sales grew 0.4%, with 0.3% fewer transactions. Comparable sales improved in each month of the quarter. Gross margin fell to 36.4% from 37.4%, and operating income fell 10.2% to $307.7 million. Diluted EPS was $0.43. The company closed 74 Petsense stores and kept its 2026 outlook, with adjusted EPS of $1.90 to $2.00.
- October 9, 2026Tractor Supply said that it will report Q3 2026 results before the market opens on October 22, 2026, with a call at 10 a.m. ET.
Show 6 older eventsHide older events
- August 25, 2026Tractor Supply issued $500 million of 5.200% senior notes due 2032. It uses the money to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility.
- August 3, 2026Robert Mills, the Chief Technology Officer who also led digital and pet services, resigned from August 7, 2026. Seth Estep, the Chief Merchandising Officer, took over Allivet and VIP Petcare, and John Ordus, the Chief Stores Officer, took over Petsense.
- July 23, 2026Tractor Supply reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales grew 2.3% to $4.54 billion, but comparable store sales fell 1.5%, with 1.7% fewer transactions. Adjusted EPS was $0.81. It recorded $65.8 million of charges to restructure Petsense, with about 75 store closures. It cut its 2026 outlook to adjusted EPS of $1.90 to $2.00 and withdrew its long-term financial framework. It will give a new framework with its Q4 2026 report.
- May 28, 2026Tractor Supply bought VIP Petcare from PetIQ for $133.8 million. VIP Petcare runs community veterinary clinics in about 2,700 retail locations, including 1,700 Tractor Supply stores, and serves more than one million pets each year.
- May 19, 2026Tractor Supply amended its senior credit facility, with a $1.30 billion revolving credit line.
- April 21, 2026Tractor Supply reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales grew 3.6% to $3.59 billion, and comparable store sales grew 0.5%. Diluted EPS was $0.31. It kept its 2026 outlook of 1% to 3% comparable store sales growth and diluted EPS of $2.13 to $2.23.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 22, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 22, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026Filed · tsco-20260926
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · tsco-20261104
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · tsco-20260819
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · tsco-20260803
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026Filed · tsco-20260627
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · tsco-20260805
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · tsco-20260528
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · tsco-20260519
Risks
- Fewer customers come to the stores. Comparable transactions fell 1.7% in Q2 2026 and 0.3% in Q3 2026, and big-ticket and discretionary items sold poorly. If rural consumers keep cutting this spend, sales and margins can fall more.
- Companion animal products give about 23% of net sales, and their sales grew less than the company average in the first nine months of 2026. The Petsense restructuring and the VIP Petcare purchase must work to win back pet owners.
- Management withdrew its long-term targets in July 2026 and will give new ones only with the Q4 2026 report. Some leaders changed roles after the Chief Technology Officer left in August 2026. Investors have no clear plan until early 2027.
- Tariffs, freight and fuel costs can raise costs. In Q3 2026, gross margin fell to 36.4% from 37.4% because of higher transportation and fuel costs and price investments.
- Long-term debt was $2.23 billion at September 26, 2026, against $1.78 billion at December 27, 2025, because the company borrowed more while it bought back shares. The amount is small compared with its operating income.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $199M
- Debt
- $2.2B
- Net debt
- $2.0B
- Interest cover
- 18×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $2.0B
When the debt is due
Tractor Supply funds itself with unsecured senior notes and a revolving credit facility. At September 26, 2026, long-term debt on the balance sheet was $2,230.3 million. It includes $750 million of 5.25% notes due 2033, $650 million of 1.75% notes due 2030, $500 million of 5.200% notes due 2032, issued on August 25, 2026, and $150 million of 3.70% notes due 2029. The rest is mostly borrowings under the revolving credit facility, which allows up to $1.30 billion since its amendment on May 19, 2026. The 10-Q for Q3 2026, filed on November 5, 2026, shows that $200.0 million was drawn on the revolving credit facility, down from $230.0 million at December 27, 2025, and that no debt is due within 12 months. Debt does not include operating lease liabilities of $4,431.8 million for the leased stores. Interest cover is operating income of $1,008.3 million divided by net interest expense of $55.6 million for the first nine months of 2026. Operating cash flow was $882.6 million in the first nine months of 2026, against $1,310.4 million a year earlier, mostly because inventories and income tax payments rose. In Q3 2026, the company bought back 2.7 million shares for $88.5 million and paid $124.9 million of dividends, and it pays $0.24 per share each quarter.
As of
Show 5 sourcesHide sources
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000069/ex991-q32026earningsrelease.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000079/tsco-20260926.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000065/tsco-20260819.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000039/tsco-20260519.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000059/tsco-20260627.htm
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 2.6% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 2.6% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $36.74)
- Paid per share
- $0.95 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.96 ($0.24 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 45% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 27, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 24, 2026, $0.24 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.184 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.21 | |
| 2018 | $0.24 | |
| 2019 | $0.272 | |
| 2020 | $0.30 | |
| 2021 | $0.416 | |
| 2022 | $0.736 | |
| 2023 | $0.824 | |
| 2024 | $0.88 | |
| 2025 | $0.92 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 25.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 19.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Tractor Supply
What does Tractor Supply do?
Tractor Supply is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the US. At September 26, 2026, it ran 2,486 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states and 135 Petsense pet stores. Its market cap is $19B at the current price of $36.74.
When does Tractor Supply report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Tractor Supply may report on January 22, 2027. It last reported results on October 22, 2026.
Is Tractor Supply stock below its intrinsic value?
Tractor Supply stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Tractor Supply?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Tractor Supply declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share.
What are the main risks for Tractor Supply?
Fewer customers come to the stores. Companion animal products give about 23% of net sales, and their sales grew less than the company average in the first nine months of 2026. Management withdrew its long-term targets in July 2026 and will give new ones only with the Q4 2026 report.
How much debt and cash does Tractor Supply have?
At September 26, 2026, Tractor Supply had $2.2B of debt and $199M of cash.
Does Tractor Supply pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Tractor Supply is $0.96 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.6% at the current price of $36.74. In the last 12 months, it paid $0.95 per share (2.6%). The latest ex-dividend date was August 24, 2026.
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