Carrier Global

Carrier makes heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, controls and services for homes and commercial buildings. It reports by region: Climate Solutions Americas, Climate Solutions Europe, and Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, plus Climate Solutions Transportation, which makes refrigeration units for containers and trucks. Products include residential and light commercial HVAC, heat pumps, and large chillers for commercial buildings and data centers.

Carrier sells through dealers, distributors and directly to building owners and contractors, and it earns recurring revenue from service and parts. Net sales were $6.26 billion in Q3 2026. In 2026, it sold its Riello and NORESCO businesses, so that it focuses on climate products.

The market doubts that Carrier can keep its higher profit margins while input costs and tariffs rise. In Q2 2026, the adjusted operating margin fell 190 basis points to 17.2%. In Q3 2026, it rose 260 basis points to 17.4%, but about $130 million of this operating profit came from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds. Carrier also took a $3.1 billion goodwill impairment for its European business in Q3 2026, which shows that the Viessmann purchase earns less than Carrier expected.

Orders are strong. In Q3 2026, total orders rose about 35%, data center orders about 300%, and the backlog reached a record of more than $8.5 billion. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Carrier must deliver its 2026 outlook of $23.8 to $24.0 billion of sales, adjusted EPS of $2.85 to $2.90 and about $2 billion of free cash flow.

The adjusted operating margin must hold without the tariff refunds, as price increases catch up with input costs. The record backlog and the long-term agreements with data center customers must turn into sales in 2027. Residential sales must keep growing after the rise of more than 30% in the Americas in Q3 2026. The Q4 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in late January or early February 2027, are the next test.

If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters.

1. Oct 29, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 earnings: margins and ordersAn adjusted operating margin that stops falling from a year earlier and the 2026 outlook of about $2.90 adjusted EPS kept pass; a further margin fall or a cut to the outlook fails.Outcome: The adjusted operating margin rose 260 basis points to 17.4%, helped by one-time tariff refunds, and Carrier set 2026 adjusted EPS at $2.85 to $2.90, close to the earlier outlook of about $2.90.
2. Jan 29, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance2026 adjusted EPS of $2.85 to $2.90, free cash flow of about $2 billion and 2027 guidance for EPS growth above the 2026 level without the tariff refunds pass; lower guidance or a lower margin without the refunds fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 2, 2026Carrier sold $1.5 billion of notes: $750 million of 5.000% notes due 2029 and $750 million of 5.350% notes due 2033. The sale closed on November 4, 2026. Carrier plans to use the money to refinance debt, including the 2.493% notes due February 15, 2027, and for general purposes, which can include repayment of commercial paper.
• October 29, 2026Carrier reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales grew 12% to $6.26 billion, and organic sales grew 15%. Orders rose about 35%, with data center orders up about 300%, and the backlog was a record of more than $8.5 billion. Adjusted EPS rose 30% to $0.87, with about $0.10 from IEEPA tariff refunds. The adjusted operating margin rose 260 basis points to 17.4%. A $3.1 billion goodwill impairment for Climate Solutions Europe gave a GAAP loss of $3.16 per share. Carrier raised its 2026 sales outlook to $23.8 to $24.0 billion and set adjusted EPS at $2.85 to $2.90, from about $2.90. It said that it signed long-term agreements worth several billion dollars with minimum volume commitments.
• October 8, 2026Carrier said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, with a conference call at 7:30 a.m. ET.

Last earnings

October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled November 4, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 29, 2026 · carr-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 29, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 28, 2026 · carr-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 28, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled July 24, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed April 30, 2026 · carr-20260331
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled April 30, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled April 16, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed February 5, 2026 · carr-20251231

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1783180)

• Margins can fall again. The adjusted operating margin fell 190 basis points to 17.2% in Q2 2026. It rose to 17.4% in Q3 2026, but about $130 million of one-time IEEPA tariff refunds helped, while input costs and tariffs still rose. If prices do not catch up, earnings can fall.
• Residential HVAC demand depends on housing, interest rates and replacement cycles. Organic sales fell 1% in Q1 2026, then grew 3% in Q2 2026 and 15% in Q3 2026. A new downturn would hit the largest segment.
• Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper, updated on April 2, 2026, raise input costs. Carrier plans to offset them with supply chain changes, cost cuts and prices, but the effect can come with a delay.
• The European business earns less than planned. In Q3 2026, Carrier took a $3.1 billion goodwill impairment for Climate Solutions Europe, which includes the Viessmann business it bought in 2024. Boiler sales fell, although heat pump sales grew.
• Much of the order growth comes from data centers. If spending on AI data centers slows, orders and the backlog can fall.
• Proposed class actions filed from March 2026 claim that Carrier and other large HVAC makers, such as Trane, Lennox, Daikin and Rheem, fixed prices from 2020. Carrier denies the claims. On October 9, 2026, the makers asked the court to dismiss the cases. A loss can bring damages and legal costs.

Carrier funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper and a Japanese term loan. At September 30, 2026, debt was $11.47 billion: $1.48 billion of short-term borrowings and current long-term debt and $9.99 billion of long-term debt. Read more

Yield at the current rate

1.8% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

1.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $54.58)

Paid per share

$0.96 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$0.96 ($0.24 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

39% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

October 29, 2026, $0.24 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 19.2% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.