Mosaic

Mosaic mines and makes phosphate and potash fertilizers. It has three segments. Phosphate mines phosphate rock in Florida and makes fertilizers such as DAP with sulfur and ammonia.

Potash mines potash in Saskatchewan, Canada, and sells it as MOP. Mosaic Fertilizantes makes and distributes fertilizers in Brazil. Mosaic also has a small biologicals business, Mosaic Biosciences.

It holds shares of the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden). In 2026, Mosaic sold its Carlsbad potash mine in New Mexico, decided to sell its Araxá complex in Brazil and to idle mining at Patrocínio. Its results move with fertilizer prices and with the cost of sulfur and ammonia.

The market prices Mosaic for high sulfur and ammonia costs that make phosphate production unprofitable. Sulfur cost an average of $715 per long ton in Q3 2026, and the Phosphate segment had a gross margin of minus $105 per tonne. Mosaic cut production: since July 2026, Faustina is idle and Bartow runs at 40% of its target rate, and Mosaic added curtailments at the South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo mines for Q4 2026. Brazil also idles its commodity fertilizer production.

Mosaic had a net loss of $603 million in the first nine months of 2026, with $442 million of charges for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 million in Q3 2026 from $806 million a year earlier. Potash is the stable part, with $284 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q3, but poor ore grades at Esterhazy cut its 2026 production outlook to 8.6 million tonnes. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

Sulfur and ammonia costs must fall, which Mosaic believes is temporary, so that phosphate plants can return to full rates. The Q4 2026 sulfur contract settled lower, at $615 per long ton. Phosphate prices must stay high while global supply stays tight. Potash ore grades must recover so that production returns to more than 9 million tonnes a year at lower unit costs.

The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 shows whether cash flow improves and production restarts, and the Q1 2027 report shows whether the lower sulfur cost lifts phosphate margins. If raw material costs return to normal, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of high sulfur costs, which Mosaic cannot control.

1. Nov 3, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 earnings: phosphate margins and cash flowPositive free cash flow and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA near the $128 million of Q2 2026 pass; a larger Phosphate loss or new cuts to production fail.Outcome: Free cash flow was only $2 million, Phosphate adjusted EBITDA fell to $49 million, the Phosphate operating loss grew to $194 million, and Mosaic added curtailments at South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo.
2. Feb 3, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 earnings: production restartLower sulfur costs and a plan to restart curtailed phosphate production pass; continued curtailments into 2027 fail.
3. May 2027 · est.Pending

   Q1 2027 earnings: phosphate margins after cheaper sulfurA positive Phosphate gross margin per tonne and potash production back near a 9 million tonne yearly rate pass; another negative Phosphate margin fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 3, 2026Mosaic reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $3.1 billion, and the net loss was $72 million, or $0.23 per share. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 million from $806 million a year earlier, and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA fell to $49 million. Sulfur averaged $715 per long ton, and the Phosphate gross margin was minus $105 per tonne. Free cash flow was about zero. Mosaic cut its 2026 potash production outlook to 8.6 million tonnes because of low ore grades at Esterhazy, and it added phosphate curtailments for Q4 2026. The Q4 2026 sulfur contract settled at $615 per long ton. Mosaic targets capital spending below $1 billion in 2027.
• September 23, 2026Mosaic said that Karen Swager, Executive Vice President of Operations, will retire. Walter Precourt III becomes Executive Vice President of Operations on December 1, 2026.
• August 28, 2026Mosaic issued notices to redeem with cash on hand all remaining 4.050% notes due 2027 ($304.9 million), 5.375% notes due 2028 ($124.1 million) and 7.30% debentures due 2028 ($108.2 million). The 2027 notes were redeemed on September 28, 2026.

Last earnings

November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

Expected about February 3, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed November 4, 2026 · mos-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled November 3, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled September 25, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KCurrent reportFiled August 28, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KNew debt or financial obligation and Other company newsFiled August 17, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 17, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 14, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 10, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed August 5, 2026 · mos-20260630
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled August 4, 2026 · Press release and exhibits

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1285785)

• Sulfur and ammonia are the main raw materials for phosphate fertilizer. Sulfur averaged $715 per long ton in Q3 2026, and the Q4 2026 contract is $615, still above the $522 of Q2. Mosaic expects lower Phosphate margins in Q4 2026 because costly raw materials flow through inventory. If these costs stay high, phosphate plants stay curtailed and the Phosphate segment keeps losing money.
• Fertilizer prices move with crop prices, farmer income and government policy in China and India. A fall in phosphate or potash prices reduces earnings quickly.
• In Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes had lower sales volumes, higher unit costs and charges of about $482 million for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in the first half of 2026. Its adjusted EBITDA fell to $41 million in Q3 2026 from $241 million a year earlier, and Mosaic expects Q4 2026 to be lower than Q3.
• Poor ore grades at the Esterhazy potash mine cut Mosaic's 2026 potash production outlook to 8.6 million tonnes. Mosaic says that the low grades are temporary. If they last, Potash, the profitable segment, earns less.
• Free cash flow was about zero in Q3 2026, after minus $153 million in Q2. Debt was $5.91 billion at September 30, 2026. If cash flow does not improve in Q4 2026 as the company expects, debt can stay high.

Mosaic funds its operations with senior notes, commercial paper and bank loans. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $5.91 billion: short-term debt of $511.6 million, current maturities of $68.7 million and long-term debt of $5.33 billion. Read more

Yield at the current rate

3.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

3.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $22.80)

Paid per share

$0.88 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$0.88 ($0.22 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

52% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 10, 2026, $0.22 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 34.5% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 2.0% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.