CNHFarm & construction machinery
CNH Industrial
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
- Price
- $12.49
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Deep below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 9 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $15B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 0.8%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 0.8%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 59.5
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $0.21
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $9.12 – $14.46
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.24
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 19M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The farm machinery cycle is at a low point and farm incomes are weak, so the gap closes slowly as farmers buy machines again in 2027 and 2028.
- Gap
- Slow. The gap closes only as the farm cycle recovers, which depends on crop prices and farm incomes over 2027 and 2028.
Company guidance: Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.44 to $0.48 and Industrial Activities free cash flow of $300 to $450 million for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
CNH Industrial makes farm and construction machinery. Its main brands are Case IH and New Holland for farm equipment and CASE for construction equipment. It reports three segments: Agriculture, which gives most of its sales, Construction, and Financial Services. Agriculture sells tractors, combines, sprayers, seeding equipment and precision technology through independent dealers around the world.
Financial Services (CNH Capital) lends money to farmers and dealers to buy the machines, and it had a managed portfolio of $27.8 billion at September 30, 2026. CNH makes money from machine sales, spare parts and services, and from interest on its loans. Its sales follow the farm cycle, which depends on crop prices, farm incomes and interest rates. On November 9, 2026, CNH agreed to sell 70% of its Construction Equipment business to Kobelco Construction Machinery, so it will become mostly a farm machinery company.
Thesis
The market prices CNH at a discount because the farm machinery cycle is at a low point, and investors are not sure when it turns. Low crop prices and high costs squeeze farm incomes, so farmers delay new machines. In Q3 2026, North American industry sales of combines fell 13%, and South American sales of tractors and combines fell 22% and 19%. CNH's Agriculture sales fell 2%.
Agriculture adjusted EBIT rose to $173 million from $137 million, but this gain came mainly from refunds of tariffs that CNH paid earlier, and CNH will spend most of these refunds on one-time actions. Loans more than 30 days past due were 4.1% of receivables at September 30, 2026, up from 3.5% a year earlier, mainly in South America. S&P cut CNH's rating to BBB in April 2026, and Fitch moved its outlook to negative in May 2026. In October 2026, the FTC and the USDA opened an inquiry into dealer practices in farm equipment, and higher USDA crop forecasts sent corn and soybean prices lower.
On November 9, 2026, CNH agreed to sell 70% of its Construction Equipment business to Kobelco and to use the cash to reduce debt. For the gap to close, the farm cycle must turn in 2027: dealer inventories must stay low, industry tractor and combine volumes must stop falling, and CNH must deliver its updated 2026 outlook of a 5.1% to 5.4% Agriculture margin and $300 million to $450 million of industrial free cash flow. Past-due loans in South America must stop rising, the FTC inquiry must not lead to rules that limit dealer contracts, and the Kobelco deal must close by the end of 2027. The full-year report and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 are the next test.
If demand recovers in 2027, the gap can close slowly over 2027 and 2028. The main risk is a longer low point in farm incomes.
Checkpoints
- Nov 9, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: Agriculture margin and past-due loansAn Agriculture margin in line with the 5.0% to 5.5% full-year outlook and past-due loans at or below 4.4% pass; a cut to the 2026 outlook or higher past-due loans fail.Outcome: The Agriculture margin was 6.0% in Q3 2026 with help from tariff refunds, CNH kept the middle of its margin outlook at 5.1% to 5.4% and raised its EPS outlook, and past-due loans fell to 4.1%.
- Feb 9, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results and 2027 outlookA 2027 outlook with higher Agriculture sales and margin passes; a 2027 outlook with lower sales again fails.
- 2027 · est.PendingFTC and USDA farm equipment inquiryAn inquiry that ends without new rules or legal action against CNH's dealer model passes; new limits on dealer contracts or parts and service fail.
- Q4 2027 · est.PendingKobelco deal for the Construction Equipment business closesA close by the end of 2027, with the cash used to reduce debt, passes; a delay into 2028 or a failed deal fails.
Recent events
- November 9, 2026CNH reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $4.35 billion, about flat from a year earlier. Net income fell to $35 million from $67 million, because of a $156 million non-cash charge on tax assets in Brazil, and diluted EPS was $0.02. Adjusted net income rose to $205 million from $109 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.16. The results include $109 million of pre-tax refunds of tariffs that CNH paid earlier. Agriculture sales fell 2% to $2.9 billion, and the Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin rose to 6.0% from 4.6%. Industrial free cash flow was minus $10 million. CNH raised its 2026 outlook for adjusted diluted EPS to $0.44 to $0.48, from $0.41 to $0.46, and for industrial free cash flow to $300 million to $450 million, from $200 million to $400 million. It changed its Agriculture margin outlook to 5.1% to 5.4%, from 5.0% to 5.5%.
- November 9, 2026CNH agreed to sell 70% of its Construction Equipment business to Kobelco Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Kobe Steel. The deal values the business at an enterprise value of $1 billion. CNH expects to receive $700 million in cash, before adjustments for net debt, working capital and other items, and it will keep 30% of the new joint venture. CNH plans to use the cash to reduce debt. It expects the deal to close by the end of 2027, after regulatory approvals.
- October 19, 2026CNH said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 9, 2026, with a webcast at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Show 8 older eventsHide older events
- October 9, 2026CNH stock fell 5% after the USDA raised its corn and soybean production forecasts, which sent crop prices lower. Lower crop prices reduce farm incomes and demand for machines.
- October 7, 2026The FTC and the USDA started a joint inquiry into business practices in the farm equipment market, such as restrictive dealer contracts, hidden financial penalties and barriers to repair. CNH stock fell 5.7% that day, Deere fell 5.0% and AGCO fell 5.9%.
- September 21, 2026CNH Industrial Capital Canada priced Cdn$200 million of 4.00% notes due 2028 and Cdn$350 million of 4.40% notes due 2030.
- August 31, 2026CNH and Bourgault Industries formed an alliance to sell co-branded Case IH and New Holland seeding equipment that Bourgault makes, through CNH dealers in North America, Australia and other markets.
- August 3, 2026CNH reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $4.80 billion, up 2%. Adjusted net income fell to $161 million from $216 million, and diluted EPS was $0.11. Agriculture sales were flat at $3.3 billion, and Construction sales rose 12% to $866 million. CNH moved its 2026 outlook to the higher end of its ranges: Agriculture sales about flat, an Agriculture margin of 5.0% to 5.5%, adjusted EPS of $0.41 to $0.46 and industrial free cash flow of $200 million to $400 million.
- July 28, 2026CNH said that Chief Technology Officer Jay Schroeder will retire on January 1, 2027, and Agriculture Chief Commercial Officer Stefano Pampalone will retire on September 1, 2026. Eric Shuman will become Chief Technology Officer.
- June 2, 2026The US government lowered tariffs on some farm and industrial equipment. Citi called the change a small positive for Deere, AGCO and CNH.
- April 30, 2026CNH reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $3.83 billion, flat from a year earlier, and adjusted net income fell to $21 million from $132 million. Industrial free cash flow was negative $589 million. CNH kept its 2026 outlook.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- August 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 9, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · cnhi-20260930
- 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · cnhi-20261109
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · cnhi-20260630
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KShareholder vote results and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · cnhi-20260331
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Farm incomes stay low for longer. Low crop prices and high input costs make farmers delay new machines. In October 2026, higher USDA crop forecasts pushed corn and soybean prices lower again. A longer low point keeps volumes and margins down.
- Credit risk in Financial Services. Loans more than 30 days past due were 4.1% of receivables at September 30, 2026, up from 3.5% a year earlier, mainly because of stress among farmers in South America. In Q3 2026, CNH also took a $156 million non-cash charge on tax assets in Brazil, because of past losses there. Higher losses lower profit and can raise funding costs.
- Regulation. The FTC and the USDA opened an inquiry into farm equipment dealer practices in October 2026. The findings can lead to new rules or legal actions that change how CNH works with dealers and sells parts and service.
- Tariffs and trade. Tariffs raised CNH's costs in 2026 and lowered segment margins. The US cut some tariffs on equipment in June 2026, and CNH got refunds of some tariffs in Q3 2026, but trade rules can change quickly.
- Credit ratings. S&P cut CNH to BBB in April 2026, and Fitch has a negative outlook on its BBB rating. A further cut raises the cost of the debt that funds Financial Services.
- The Kobelco deal needs regulatory approvals, and CNH expects it to close by the end of 2027. A delay or a failed deal keeps the construction business, and its low margins, in CNH.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.3B
- Debt
- $4.3B
- Net debt
- $3.0B
- Credit line
- $6.3B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $3.0B
Credit ratings
- S&P BBB · stable
- Fitch BBB · negative
- Moody's Baa2 · stable
Most of CNH's debt funds its Financial Services business, which lends to farmers and dealers. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $25.5 billion: $21.7 billion in Financial Services, backed by loans and leases to customers, and $4.3 billion in Industrial Activities. The figures show Industrial Activities only. Cash is unrestricted cash of Industrial Activities. Net debt of Industrial Activities was $2.5 billion, as CNH reports it after restricted cash, receivables from Iveco and other items, up from $2.0 billion at December 31, 2025, because industrial free cash flow was minus $449 million in the first nine months of 2026. Total available liquidity was $8.7 billion, including $6.3 billion of undrawn committed unsecured credit lines. CNH met all covenants of its €3.25 billion revolving credit facility, which matures on April 18, 2031. S&P cut the rating to BBB from BBB+ on April 9, 2026, with a stable outlook. Fitch affirmed BBB on May 13, 2026, and changed the outlook to negative. Moody's affirmed its Baa2 rating with a stable outlook on September 2, 2026. CNH plans to use the cash from the sale of 70% of its Construction Equipment business to Kobelco, about $700 million before adjustments, to reduce debt.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 0.8% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 0.8% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $12.49)
- Paid per share
- $0.10 in the last 12 months (1 payment)
- Current annual rate
- $0.10 ($0.10 × 1 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 61% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- May 21, 2026, $0.10 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.1271 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.1027 | |
| 2018 | $0.1497 | |
| 2019 | $0.1767 | |
| 2020 | $0.00 | |
| 2021 | $0.1149 | |
| 2022 | $0.302 | |
| 2023 | $0.396 | |
| 2024 | $0.47 | |
| 2025 | $0.25 |
From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 2.9% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about CNH Industrial
What does CNH Industrial do?
CNH Industrial makes farm and construction machinery. Its main brands are Case IH and New Holland for farm equipment and CASE for construction equipment. Its market cap is $15B at the current price of $12.49.
When does CNH Industrial report earnings next?
This is an estimate: CNH Industrial may report on February 9, 2027. It last reported results on November 9, 2026.
Is CNH Industrial stock below its intrinsic value?
CNH Industrial stock is deep below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at CNH Industrial?
The latest update is from November 9, 2026. CNH reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for CNH Industrial?
Farm incomes stay low for longer. Credit risk in Financial Services. Regulation.
How much debt and cash does CNH Industrial have?
At September 30, 2026, CNH Industrial had $4.3B of debt and $1.3B of cash.
Does CNH Industrial pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of CNH Industrial is $0.10 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.8% at the current price of $12.49. The latest ex-dividend date was May 21, 2026.
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