QSRRestaurants
Restaurant Brands International
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- CA$109.28
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
- Market cap
- CA$38B
- Shares of Sep 30, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 3.3%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.3%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- CA$89.08 – CA$113.10
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.36
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 961K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Restaurant Brands for high debt and weak Popeyes sales, and steady comparable sales growth with falling leverage over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The full-year report in early 2027 and the Q1 2027 report show whether comparable sales, the 8% growth target and lower leverage hold.
Company guidance: Segment G&A (excluding RH) of $600 to $620 million and Total Capex and Cash Inducements of around $400 million for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99))
Price history
About
Restaurant Brands International (RBI) is one of the largest quick service restaurant companies in the world. It owns four brands: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs. At June 30, 2026, the system had 33,156 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories, and more than 95% of them were franchised. System-wide sales were nearly $49 billion a year.
RBI earns mostly royalties, rent and supply chain sales from its franchisees, so its revenue follows the sales of the restaurants. It reports five franchisor segments (Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs in the U.S. and Canada, and International) and a Restaurant Holdings segment. Restaurant Holdings holds the Burger King restaurants that RBI bought with Carrols in 2024, which it plans to sell to franchisees, and the start-up businesses of Popeyes China and Firehouse Subs Brazil. RBI is a Canadian company with its main offices in Miami, and it trades on the NYSE and the TSX.
Thesis
The market prices RBI for its high debt, weak sales at Popeyes in the U.S. and slow growth at Tim Hortons in Canada. Net debt was $12.6 billion at September 30, 2026, or 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA, and RBI expects adjusted interest expense of $500 million to $520 million in 2026. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 4.6% in the first nine months of 2026, and Tim Hortons Canada comparable sales rose only 1.1%. 3G Capital, the largest holder, also continues to exchange units, which can add selling pressure.
For the gap to close, three things must be true. RBI must keep consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more and organic adjusted operating income growth of 8% or more, its targets from 2024 to 2028. Popeyes U.S. sales must stop falling. Net leverage must keep falling from 4.0 times, as free cash flow of $1.58 billion over the 12 months to September 30, 2026 pays for dividends, buybacks and debt repayment.
Organic adjusted operating income grew 7.8% in the first nine months of 2026. The full-year report in early 2027 shows whether RBI met its 8% organic growth target for 2026. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker consumer in the U.S. and Canada, which can slow sales at all four brands.
Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026PassedQ3 2026 results: comparable sales and PopeyesConsolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more, a smaller fall at Popeyes U.S. and the 8% organic growth target kept pass; a fall in comparable sales growth below 2% or a lower target fails.Outcome: Comparable sales grew 3.8%, Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 2.2% after 5.2% in Q2, and RBI kept its 8% organic growth target for 2026.
- Jan 29, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026 results: growth target and leverageOrganic adjusted operating income growth of 8% or more for 2026 and net leverage below 4.1 times pass; a miss on the growth target or higher leverage fails.
Recent events
- October 29, 2026RBI reported Q3 2026 results. System-wide sales grew 6.2% and comparable sales grew 3.8%, with 8.4% at Burger King U.S., 3.9% at International and 1.8% at Tim Hortons Canada. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 2.2%, a smaller fall than the 5.2% of Q2. Adjusted EPS rose 6.9% to $1.10, and adjusted operating income rose 6.7% on an organic basis. Net leverage fell to 4.0 times from 4.4 times a year earlier. RBI returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026 and said it remains on track for 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026.
- September 15, 2026RBI said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026.
- August 10, 2026RBI received a notice from 3G Restaurant Brands Holdings, an affiliate of 3G Capital, to exchange 2,784,549 exchangeable units. RBI said it will buy back the units for cash on hand on August 31, 2026, at the 20-day average NYSE price. After the exchange, 3G holds about 21% of the fully diluted shares.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- August 6, 2026RBI reported Q2 2026 results. System-wide sales grew 6.4% and comparable sales grew 3.8%, with 8.5% at Burger King U.S. and 5.5% at International. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 5.2%. Adjusted EPS rose 12.9% to $1.07, and adjusted operating income rose 6.7% on an organic basis. RBI returned $435 million to shareholders and said it remains on track for 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026.
- May 6, 2026RBI reported Q1 2026 results. Comparable sales grew 3.2%, and Tim Hortons and International had their 20th quarter in a row of positive comparable sales. RBI started share repurchases again in March and expects to buy back $500 million of shares in 2026.
- January 30, 2026RBI formed a joint venture for Burger King China with a fund managed by CPE, which invested $350 million of new capital. RBI keeps a 17% interest and earns royalties from the restaurants.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · qsr-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · qsr-20260810
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · qsr-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · qsr-20260603
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · qsr-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · qsr-20251231
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
Risks
- Debt principal was $13.3 billion at September 30, 2026, and net leverage was 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA. About $5.7 billion of term loans have floating rates, part of which is hedged with swaps to October 2028. Higher rates or lower earnings make the debt harder to carry and limit buybacks.
- Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 4.6% in the first nine months of 2026, including 2.2% in Q3. If the brand does not recover, franchisees open fewer restaurants and royalty growth slows.
- Tim Hortons in Canada gives a large part of the profit, and its comparable sales grew only 1.1% in the first nine months of 2026. A weak Canadian consumer or higher coffee costs can lower its profit.
- 3G Capital held about 21% of the fully diluted shares after the August 2026 exchange. More exchanges or share sales by 3G can add selling pressure on the stock.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $974M
- Debt
- $13.3B
- Net debt
- $12.3B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 4.0×
- EBITDA $3.1B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 5.4×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $1.2B
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $12.3B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2030.
RBI funds itself with secured term loans and senior notes. At September 30, 2026, debt principal was $13.31 billion: Term Loan B of $4.44 billion due 2030, Term Loan A of $1.22 billion due 2028, $4.0 billion of first lien notes due 2028 and 2029, and $3.65 billion of second lien notes due 2028 and 2030. Finance leases added about $0.28 billion, and RBI reports total debt of $13.59 billion and net debt of $12.61 billion. Cash was $974 million. Net leverage was 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA of $3.12 billion over the 12 months to September 30, 2026, down from 4.4 times a year earlier. RBI had $1.25 billion available under its revolving credit facility, with no borrowings. Interest cover is income from operations of $2.02 billion divided by net interest expense of $372 million for the first nine months of 2026. Free cash flow was $1.58 billion over the 12 months to September 30, 2026. The debt is rated below investment grade, and RBI names a path to investment grade as a goal.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.3% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of CA$109.28)
- Paid per share
- CA$3.574 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- CA$3.636 (CA$0.909 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 18, 2026, CA$0.909 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | CA$0.819 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CA$1.01 | |
| 2018 | CA$1.752 | |
| 2019 | CA$2.653 | |
| 2020 | CA$2.776 | |
| 2021 | CA$2.678 | |
| 2022 | CA$2.833 | |
| 2023 | CA$2.955 | |
| 2024 | CA$3.202 | |
| 2025 | CA$3.449 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 4.4% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 19.7% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Restaurant Brands International
What does Restaurant Brands International do?
Restaurant Brands International (RBI) is one of the largest quick service restaurant companies in the world. It owns four brands: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs. Its market cap is CA$38B at the current price of CA$109.28.
When does Restaurant Brands International report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Restaurant Brands International may report on January 29, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.
Is Restaurant Brands International stock below its intrinsic value?
Restaurant Brands International stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Restaurant Brands International?
The latest update is from October 29, 2026. RBI reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Restaurant Brands International?
Debt principal was $13.3 billion at September 30, 2026, and net leverage was 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 4.6% in the first nine months of 2026, including 2.2% in Q3. Tim Hortons in Canada gives a large part of the profit, and its comparable sales grew only 1.1% in the first nine months of 2026.
How much debt and cash does Restaurant Brands International have?
At September 30, 2026, Restaurant Brands International had $13.3B of debt and $974M of cash.
Does Restaurant Brands International pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Restaurant Brands International is CA$3.636 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.3% at the current price of CA$109.28. In the last 12 months, it paid CA$3.574 per share (3.3%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 18, 2026.
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