MDLNMedical supplies distribution
Medline
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $42.16
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 4 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $55B
- Shares of Nov 2, 2026
- Average volume
- 8.8M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices Medline for a cut to its profit guidance, the Tracy fire and sales by its private equity owners, and results on the new guidance with good insurance recoveries can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The insurance recoveries for the Tracy fire and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 show whether profit growth returns without tariff refunds.
Company guidance: Organic sales growth of 10.0% to 10.5% and Adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
Medline is the largest provider of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions, and it serves all points of care: hospitals, surgery centers, physician offices, nursing homes and home care. It makes and sources many products under its own Medline brand, such as gloves, gowns, surgical kits and wound care products, and it also distributes products of other makers. It owns a large network of distribution centers.
Medline is based in Northfield, Illinois. It sold shares to the public on December 18, 2025, at $29 per share, and Blackstone, Carlyle, Hellman & Friedman and the Mills family still own large stakes.
Thesis
The market prices Medline for lower profit growth and for the shares that its owners still have to sell. In August 2026, Medline lowered its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion from $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion, because of inflation from the Middle East conflict, more spending on operations, quality remediation and weak retail sales. In Q3 2026, net sales grew 10.4% and Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.8%, but net income fell 1.2% because of inventory cost inflation, higher operating expenses and customer mix. Q3 results also included $81 million of net IEEPA tariff refund benefits, which will not repeat.
A fire destroyed its Tracy, California distribution center on June 11, 2026, with estimated losses of $416 million through Q3 2026, and insurers paid $100 million of it in Q3. Medline also has three unresolved FDA warning letters, and its private equity owners sold 72.6 million shares in May 2026, so more sales are possible. In October 2026, Medline prepaid $750 million of debt, and its board approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
Medline must reach its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, which it kept on November 4, 2026, and guide to higher profit in 2027 without the help of tariff refunds. Insurers must pay a large part of the remaining fire losses. The company must resolve the FDA warning letters without large recalls. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 give the next evidence.
If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is that cost inflation and remediation costs continue, so that profit grows much more slowly than sales.
Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026PassedQ3 2026 earnings: new guidanceOrganic sales growth near 9% to 10% and Adjusted EBITDA on track for $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion pass; another cut to the guidance fails.Outcome: Organic sales grew 10.5%, and Medline raised its 2026 organic sales guidance to 10.0% to 10.5% and kept its Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion.
- Feb 4, 2027 · est.PendingTracy fire insurance and 2027 guidanceInsurance recoveries for most of the $416 million of fire losses estimated through Q3 2026 and guidance for higher Adjusted EBITDA in 2027 pass; small recoveries or flat profit guidance fail.
Recent events
- November 4, 2026Medline reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $7.9 billion, up 10.4%, and organic sales grew 10.5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $960 million, up 11.8%, and net income fell 1.2% to $318 million. Results included $81 million of net IEEPA tariff refund benefits and $100 million of insurance recoveries for the Tracy fire. Medline raised its 2026 organic sales guidance to 10.0% to 10.5% and kept its Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion. It also said that its board approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion in October 2026.
- October 22, 2026Medline prepaid $750 million of its term loan due 2033 with cash on hand. It expects a loss of about $21 million on the prepayment in Q4 2026 and lower interest expense after it.
- October 13, 2026Joseph Baratta told Medline that he will leave its board on December 31, 2026, at the same time as his departure from Blackstone. Medline said that his decision is not the result of a disagreement with the company.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- August 5, 2026Medline reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $7.7 billion, up 11.6%, and Adjusted EBITDA was $1,060 million, up 13.4%. Net income fell 58.3% to $139 million because of losses from the Tracy fire. Results included $243 million of net IEEPA tariff refund benefits. Medline raised its 2026 organic sales guidance to 9.0% to 10.0% and lowered its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion.
- July 7, 2026Stephen Miller, the Chief Operating Officer, told Medline that he will retire on August 30, 2026, for health reasons. Medline started a search for a successor.
- June 11, 2026A fire destroyed Medline's distribution center in Tracy, California. All employees left the building safely. Medline estimated losses of $336 million for inventory, fixed assets and other costs, before insurance recoveries, and it leased two other distribution centers in Northern California.
- May 28, 2026Funds of Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority sold 72,554,594 Medline shares at $37.00 per share. Medline received no money from this sale. On the same day, Medline refinanced its term loan due 2030 with a new term loan due May 28, 2033.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 4, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 26, 2026Filed · mdln-20260926
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 27, 2026Filed · mdln-20260627
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · mdln-20260611
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 28, 2026Filed · mdln-20260328
Risks
- Costs rise faster than prices. Inflation from the Middle East conflict, tariffs and spending on operations made Medline lower its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in August 2026.
- Medline has three unresolved FDA warning letters about its quality systems and manufacturing practices. Quality problems can lead to recalls, product holds or more remediation costs.
- The private equity owners still own large stakes. More sales of shares, such as the sale of 72.6 million shares in May 2026, can put pressure on the share price.
- Medline has a tax receivable agreement with its pre-IPO owners. The liability was $4.40 billion at September 26, 2026, and payments under it will use cash for many years.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $2.3B
- Debt
- $12.6B
- Net debt
- $10.3B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.5×
- as the company states it
- Interest cover
- 3.5×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $10.3B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
At September 26, 2026, borrowings were $12.58 billion: long-term borrowings of $12.55 billion and current and short-term borrowings of $29 million. Cash was $2.32 billion, and short-term investments were $1.29 billion. Net debt, as Medline defines it, was $9.14 billion, or 2.5 times Adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.9 times at June 27, 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. On October 22, 2026, after the quarter end, Medline prepaid $750 million of its term loan due 2033 with cash on hand. In October 2026, its board also approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion. Free cash flow was $1.80 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and it includes IEEPA tariff refunds. The tax receivable agreement liability was $4.40 billion at September 26, 2026.
Dividends
Medline does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about Medline
What does Medline do?
Medline is the largest provider of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions, and it serves all points of care: hospitals, surgery centers, physician offices, nursing homes and home care. Its market cap is $55B at the current price of $42.16.
When does Medline report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Medline may report on February 4, 2027. It last reported results on November 4, 2026.
Is Medline stock below its intrinsic value?
Medline stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Medline?
The latest update is from November 4, 2026. Medline reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Medline?
Costs rise faster than prices. Medline has three unresolved FDA warning letters about its quality systems and manufacturing practices. The private equity owners still own large stakes.
How much debt and cash does Medline have?
At September 26, 2026, Medline had $12.6B of debt and $2.3B of cash.
Does Medline pay a dividend?
No. Medline does not pay a dividend.
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