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KMXUsed car retail

CarMax

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$53.89
Analysts view
Mixed
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Dec 17 ·
History
Market cap
$7.6B
Shares of Sep 28, 2026
P/E (trailing)
25.3
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$2.13
12 months to Aug 31, 2026
52-week range
$31.95 – $65.28
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
1.22
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
2.6M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors doubt that CarMax's new CEO can grow sales without lower profit per car, and steady volume, cost cuts and stable loan losses over four to six quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The targets of the Strategic Update on November 3, 2026 and the next quarterly reports, starting on December 17, 2026, give dated checks of volume, profit per car and costs over four to six quarters.

Company guidance: Mid-single-digit retail used unit growth and mid-teens adjusted EPS growth a year through fiscal 2030, from fiscal 2026 (, Strategic Update press release (8-K Ex. 99.1))

Price history

About

CarMax is the largest retailer of used cars in the United States. On February 28, 2026, it had 256 used car stores in 110 US television markets, and customers can buy online, in a store or with a mix of both. CarMax buys cars from consumers and dealers, repairs them and sells them at a retail price, and it sells the cars that it does not retail at its own wholesale auctions. It earns more profit from extended protection plans, service and Edmunds, its online car guide.

CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) lends to many of its buyers and held about $16 billion of auto loans, which it funds mostly with non-recourse securitization notes. CAF income comes from the spread between the loan rates and the funding cost, less the provision for loan losses. In fiscal 2026, CarMax sold about 780,000 used cars and 540,000 wholesale cars.

Thesis

The market prices CarMax for a business that lost its way and must prove that a new plan works. In fiscal 2026, sales and profits fell, the CEO left, and CarMax recorded a $141.3 million goodwill impairment because its share price and outlook fell. Keith Barr became CEO in March 2026 and cut prices to win back buyers, so gross profit per retail car fell to $2,105 in Q2 of fiscal 2027, $111 less than a year earlier. Investors fear that CarMax must give up profit per car to keep its volume, and that CAF loan losses can rise as it lends more to buyers with weaker credit.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. Comparable store used unit sales must keep growing after the 13.0% rise of Q2 while gross profit per retail car stays near the Q2 level. SG&A cuts must reach the $200 million exit rate target by the end of fiscal 2027. CAF loan losses must stay in line with the allowance, which was 3.07% of loans on August 31, 2026, as the Tier 2 loans grow.

At its Strategic Update on November 3, 2026, CarMax set targets through fiscal 2030: retail used unit growth at a mid-single-digit yearly rate and adjusted EPS growth at a mid-teens yearly rate from the fiscal 2026 base of $2.91. The Q3 report on December 17, 2026, gives the next test, and the Q4 report in about April 2027 shows the full year. If the volume gains hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If price cuts do not keep buyers, or credit losses rise, profits can fall again.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 3, 2026Passed
    Strategic Update: growth targetsClear unit, margin and cost targets with dated milestones pass; vague targets or a lower profit outlook fail.Outcome: CarMax set targets through fiscal 2030 for retail used units, adjusted EPS, SG&A savings, gross profit per car and CAF Tier 2 loans, with dated milestones.
  2. Dec 17, 2026Pending
    Q3 fiscal 2027 results: volume and profit per carComparable store used unit growth with gross profit per retail car near $2,100 and the start of buybacks pass; falling units or another large drop in profit per car fail.
  3. Apr 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 fiscal 2027 results: full year and SG&A cutsSG&A savings at the $200 million exit rate and CAF loan losses in line with the allowance pass; missed cost targets or a higher loss provision fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 3, 2026CarMax held its Strategic Update. Through fiscal 2030, from a fiscal 2026 base, it targets retail used unit growth at a mid-single-digit yearly rate and adjusted EPS growth at a mid-teens yearly rate. It expects $200 million of run-rate SG&A savings at the end of fiscal 2027, gross profit per retail car steady from fiscal 2027, and capital spending of about $500 million a year from fiscal 2028. CAF plans to make 40% of the loans to CarMax's Tier 2 buyers by fiscal 2030, up from 10%, so CAF income falls in fiscal 2027 because of upfront loss provisions. CarMax keeps a leverage target of 1.5 to 2.0 times and plans to continue share buybacks.
  • October 19, 2026CarMax appointed Darren Woodell, the Controller of Genworth Financial, as Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer from November 11, 2026. The CFO, Enrique Mayor-Mora, stays in his role.
  • September 29, 2026CarMax reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue rose 19.5% to $7.9 billion, retail used units rose 13.8%, and comparable store used units rose 13.0%. Gross profit per retail used car fell $111 to $2,105 because of price cuts. Diluted EPS was $1.16, up from $0.64. CarMax said that it plans to resume share buybacks at a modest level in Q3 and to hold a Strategic Update on November 3, 2026.
Show 5 older events
  • September 23, 2026A court moved the securities class action Jason Cap v. CarMax to the US District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia. The suit covers investors who bought shares between June 20, 2025 and November 5, 2025, and CarMax has filed a motion to dismiss.
  • July 31, 2026CarMax said that Diane Cafritz, Executive Vice President and Chief Innovation and People Officer, will leave the company on December 31, 2026.
  • June 23, 2026Shareholders elected the Board at the annual meeting, including the new directors William Cobb, James Kessler and Robert O'Shaughnessy, and approved an amended stock incentive plan.
  • June 17, 2026CarMax reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results and its four-pillar growth strategy, Shift into GEAR. Revenue rose 6.2% to $8.0 billion, comparable store used units fell 0.8%, and gross profit per retail used car fell $230 to $2,177. Diluted EPS was $1.31, down from $1.38.
  • June 15, 2026CarMax borrowed a new $500 million term loan from a bank group led by MUFG, due June 15, 2029. It used the money to pay down its revolving credit facility.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
September 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
December 17, 2026, as the company confirmed.
  • 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · kmx-20261103
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · kmx-20261019
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Aug 31, 2026Filed · kmx-20260831
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · kmx-20260729
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled · kmx-20260623
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended May 31, 2026Filed · kmx-20260531
  • 8-KEarnings release and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Press release and exhibits
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · kmx-20260603
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · kmx-20260512

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1170010)

Risks

  • CarMax cut prices to win back sales. Gross profit per retail used car fell from $2,216 to $2,105 in Q2 of fiscal 2027. If more price cuts are necessary to keep volume, profits can fall even when sales rise.
  • CAF holds about $16 billion of auto loans and now lends more to Tier 2 buyers with weaker credit. A weaker economy or higher unemployment can increase loan losses above the allowance of 3.07% of loans, and CAF depends on the securitization market for funds.
  • The CEO, Keith Barr, joined in March 2026, and other senior leaders left. The new strategy is not proven. Its targets through fiscal 2030 assume a stable operating environment, and CarMax expects CAF income to fall in fiscal 2027 as it adds Tier 2 loans.
  • Online used car sellers and dealers compete for the same buyers and for the cars that CarMax buys from consumers. Cars bought from consumers were flat in Q2 of fiscal 2027.
  • A securities class action, Jason Cap v. CarMax, is pending. CarMax cannot estimate a possible loss.

Balance sheet

Cash
$171M
Debt
$1.2B
Net debt
$1.0B
Interest cover
8.0×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$2.0B
undrawn, to June 2028

Cash against debt

Cash$171M
Debt$1.2B

debt covered by cashnet debt $1.0B

When the debt is due

12 months$0.0M
Later$1.2B

The last debt is due in 2030.

CarMax has two kinds of debt. CAF funds its auto loans mostly with non-recourse notes, $15,721.3 million at August 31, 2026, which only the loans secure; they are not in debt here.

Dividends

CarMax does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.

Questions about CarMax

What does CarMax do?

CarMax is the largest retailer of used cars in the United States. On February 28, 2026, it had 256 used car stores in 110 US television markets, and customers can buy online, in a store or with a mix of both. Its market cap is $7.6B at the current price of $53.89.

When does CarMax report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on December 17, 2026. It last reported results on September 29, 2026.

Is CarMax stock below its intrinsic value?

CarMax stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at CarMax?

The latest update is from November 3, 2026. CarMax held its Strategic Update.

What are the main risks for CarMax?

CarMax cut prices to win back sales. CAF holds about $16 billion of auto loans and now lends more to Tier 2 buyers with weaker credit. The CEO, Keith Barr, joined in March 2026, and other senior leaders left.

How much debt and cash does CarMax have?

At August 31, 2026, CarMax had $1.2B of debt and $171M of cash.

Does CarMax pay a dividend?

No. CarMax does not pay a dividend.

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