Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange runs financial exchanges, clearing houses, data services, and mortgage software. It reports three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. It owns the New York Stock Exchange and futures exchanges for energy, interest rates, and farm and metal commodities, such as the Brent oil contract.

It operates six clearing houses. ICE Mortgage Technology sells software that lenders use to make home loans and that servicers use to manage them. ICE makes money from trading and clearing fees, listing fees, market data subscriptions, and software fees.

The market still prices ICE partly as a mortgage company. The 2023 Black Knight purchase made mortgage technology about one fifth of net revenue, and that revenue moves with US home-loan volume. Mortgage rates rose again from July 2026. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate went from 6.43% on July 2 to 7.40% on October 8, 2026, and the Federal Reserve raised its target rate in September.

Higher rates keep refinance volume low and delay the mortgage recovery that the Black Knight purchase depends on. The pending MarketAxess purchase adds a second question. ICE will pay about $6.0 billion in cash with new debt while it still integrates Black Knight, and investors ask whether it can integrate the deal well and reduce the debt on plan. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

Exchange and data revenue must keep growing; these two segments gave about 80% of net revenue in the third quarter of 2026, and recurring revenue grew 7% in that quarter. Mortgage technology revenue must keep growing with higher rates, as it did in 2024 and 2025. The MarketAxess deal must close in the first quarter of 2027, and gross leverage must fall from about 3.4 times to 3.0 times or less within 18 to 24 months after closing. The deal passed two tests in October 2026: the US antitrust waiting period ended early on October 21, and MarketAxess shareholders approved the deal on October 29.

The next evidence comes with the fourth quarter report on February 4, 2027, and with the closing and the first leverage report after it. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If mortgage rates stay high for longer or other regulators delay the deal, the gap can stay into 2028.

1. Oct 29, 2026Passed

   MarketAxess shareholder vote and end of US antitrust reviewShareholder approval and no second request or suit from the Department of Justice pass; a failed vote or a longer antitrust review that delays closing fails.Outcome: The US antitrust waiting period ended early on October 21, 2026, and MarketAxess shareholders approved the deal on October 29, 2026.
2. Oct 29, 2026Passed

   Q3 2026 earnings: mortgage technology and recurring revenueMortgage technology revenue that still grows from a year earlier with higher mortgage rates, and recurring revenue growth near the 8% of Q2, pass; a fall in mortgage technology revenue from a year earlier fails.Outcome: Mortgage technology revenue grew 4% to $549 million and recurring revenue grew 7%, while net revenue grew 15% on higher trading volume.
3. Feb 4, 2027Pending

   Q4 2026 earnings: mortgage technology and 2027 outlookMortgage technology revenue that still grows from a year earlier and recurring revenue growth of 7% or more pass; a fall in mortgage technology revenue from a year earlier fails.
4. Q1 2027 · est.Pending

   MarketAxess deal closing and first leverage reportClosing in the first quarter of 2027 after the other regulatory approvals, with gross leverage near 3.4 times and buybacks still at $400 million a quarter, passes; a delay past mid-2027 or higher leverage than planned fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• October 29, 2026ICE reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue was $2.77 billion, up 15% from a year earlier, and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.02, up 18%. Exchange net revenue grew 22% to $1.54 billion because trading volume rose. Recurring revenue grew 7%, and mortgage technology revenue grew 4% to $549 million. ICE now expects the MarketAxess deal to close in the first quarter of 2027, earlier than the first half of 2027 that it gave in July.
• October 29, 2026MarketAxess shareholders approved the purchase by ICE at a special meeting. About 28.2 million shares voted for the deal and about 34,000 voted against it.
• October 21, 2026The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission ended the US antitrust waiting period for the MarketAxess purchase early, on October 21, 2026. Other regulatory approvals are still necessary.

Last earnings

October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)

Next earnings

February 4, 2027, as the company confirmed.

• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed October 29, 2026 · ice-20260930
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled October 29, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KChange to shareholder rights or bylawsFiled August 28, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled August 21, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KOther company newsFiled August 20, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed July 30, 2026 · ice-20260630
• 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled July 30, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 8-KEarnings releaseFiled July 30, 2026 · Press release and exhibits
• 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled May 19, 2026 · Read it on sec.gov
• 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed April 30, 2026 · ice-20260331

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1571949)

• Mortgage technology revenue depends on US mortgage volume, which moves with interest rates that ICE does not control. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate rose from 6.43% in July 2026 to 7.40% in October 2026, which keeps refinance volume low. If rates stay high, the growth of this segment can slow or stop.
• ICE is still integrating Black Knight, bought in 2023, while it works to close the purchase of MarketAxess for about $6.0 billion in cash. MarketAxess shareholders approved the deal on October 29, 2026, and the US antitrust waiting period ended on October 21, 2026. ICE now expects the deal to close in the first quarter of 2027, after the other regulatory approvals. The deal adds about $6 billion of debt, and two integrations at the same time raise execution risk.
• Exchange trading revenue depends on trading volume and market volatility, which change from quarter to quarter. A calm market with lower volume could reduce this revenue.

Intercontinental Exchange funds itself with unsecured debt of the parent company and with cash from its exchanges, data and mortgage software. At September 30, 2026, the debt was $22.3 billion of senior notes and $1.0 billion of commercial paper. Read more

Yield at the current rate

1.2% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

1.1% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $180.59)

Paid per share

$2.04 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$2.08 ($0.52 × 4 a year)

Payout ratio

33% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 16, 2026, $0.52 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 9.9% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 12.7% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.