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FANGOil & gas exploration and production

Diamondback Energy

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$180.98
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Below intrinsic value
Pick status
Top pick
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 2 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$51B
Shares of Oct 30, 2026
Yield at current rate
2.6%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
2.4%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
24.4
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$7.43
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$139.41 – $216.90
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.47
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
2.5M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market fears that oil prices fall back after the Middle East conflict, and steady output with high free cash flow for debt cuts and buybacks can close the gap over two to four quarters.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 plan, expected in February 2027, show how much cash Diamondback makes at the new oil prices.

Company guidance: Net production of ~1,015 MBOE/d, oil production of ~524 MBO/d and capital spending of $3.95 - $4.00 billion for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))

Price history

About

Diamondback Energy produces oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids in the Permian Basin of West Texas, mainly in the Midland Basin. In Q3 2026, it produced 1,034 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 525 thousand barrels per day were oil. It became much larger after it bought Endeavor Energy Resources in 2024.

Diamondback also controls Viper Energy, a listed company that owns mineral and royalty interests. Its results move mainly with the price of oil. It returns cash to shareholders with a base dividend and share buybacks.

Thesis

The market prices Diamondback for the risk that oil prices fall back from their current high level. The conflict in the Middle East moved the global oil market into a deficit in 2026, and Diamondback's realized oil price rose to $96.82 per barrel in Q2 2026 from $63.23 a year earlier. In Q3 2026 it fell to $87.30. Its realized natural gas price in the Permian Basin was negative in Q2 2026 and only $1.12 per Mcf in Q3 2026.

The Stephens family holders (SGF FANG Holdings), who received shares in the Endeavor purchase, sold 11 million shares in March 2026, and more sales can put pressure on the share price. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Diamondback must keep production at 1,000 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day or more with capital spending of about $4.0 billion a year, as guided for 2026. It must keep its free cash flow high enough to cut debt and buy back shares.

Free cash flow was $2.1 billion in Q3 2026, and Diamondback cut its own net debt and bought back $251 million of shares. Oil prices must stay high enough for strong cash flow after the conflict ends. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 plan, expected in February 2027, give the next test and show how much Diamondback can produce and return at the new oil prices. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters.

The main reason it may not close is a sharp fall in oil prices, which Diamondback cannot control.

Checkpoints

  1. Nov 2, 2026Passed
    Q3 2026 results: free cash flow and debtOil production within the 517 to 527 thousand barrels per day guidance, capital spending within $950 million to $1,050 million and lower net debt pass; lower production or higher spending fails.Outcome: Oil production was 525 thousand barrels per day, capital spending was $1,026 million and Diamondback's own net debt fell by $269 million, but consolidated net debt rose by $513 million because Viper's debt rose.
  2. Feb 2, 2027 · est.Pending
    2027 plan: production, capital spending and returnsA 2027 plan with flat or higher oil production at capital spending near the 2026 level of about $4.0 billion passes; higher spending for the same output or a cut in shareholder returns fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 2, 2026Diamondback reported Q3 2026 results. Oil production was 525 thousand barrels per day, and total production was 1,034 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Net income was $1,603 million, or $5.69 per share, and free cash flow was $2.1 billion. The board raised the annual base dividend by 7.3% to $4.72 per share. Diamondback bought back 1.3 million shares for about $251 million and bought a 7.5% interest in the Solitude natural gas pipeline from the Permian Basin to Katy. It raised its 2026 guidance to about 1,015 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and about 524 thousand barrels of oil per day, and its capital spending guidance to $3.95 billion to $4.00 billion. On October 1, 2026, it redeemed all $698 million of its notes due 2026 at par.
  • October 8, 2026Diamondback said that its average realized oil price was $87.30 per barrel in Q3 2026, or $85.89 with hedges. Its realized natural gas price was $1.12 per Mcf. It expects a net loss of $97 million on cash settlements of derivatives for the quarter.
  • September 29, 2026Diamondback and SGF FANG Holdings amended their stockholders agreement. The Stephens holders can now name two directors while they own 10% to 25% of the shares, and none below 10%. Two directors, Darin Holderness and Lance Robertson, left the board under this agreement.
Show 4 older events
  • August 3, 2026Diamondback reported Q2 2026 results. Production passed 1.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for the first time. Net income was $1,882 million, or $6.65 per share, and free cash flow was $2.3 billion. Total debt fell by about $1.3 billion to $12.8 billion. The board doubled the buyback authorization to $16.0 billion, and Diamondback raised its 2026 production guidance.
  • June 12, 2026Diamondback raised its revolving credit facility to $3.0 billion from $2.5 billion and extended its maturity to June 12, 2031, at a lower interest rate.
  • April 10, 2026Diamondback priced tender offers for all of its 4.400% senior notes due 2051 and 4.250% senior notes due 2052. Holders tendered most of the notes, and the amounts outstanding fell to $104 million and $111 million.
  • March 10, 2026SGF FANG Holdings, owned by the Stephens family, sold 11 million Diamondback shares in a secondary offering for gross proceeds of about $1.9 billion. Diamondback received no money from the sale.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 2, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about February 2, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1539838)

Risks

  • Results depend on the price of oil. Prices rose in 2026 because of the conflict in the Middle East. If the conflict ends or OPEC+ adds supply, oil prices can fall quickly and cut cash flow.
  • Local natural gas prices in the Permian Basin, such as at the Waha Hub, are often far below national prices. Diamondback's realized gas price was negative $2.15 per Mcf in Q2 2026 and $1.12 per Mcf in Q3 2026. Low gas prices reduce income and can limit oil production.
  • The Stephens holders still own a large stake from the Endeavor purchase. More large sales of shares can weigh on the share price.
  • Diamondback drills in one basin. New rules on emissions, water disposal or earthquakes in the Permian Basin can raise costs for all its wells.

Balance sheet

Cash
$558M
Debt
$13.4B
Net debt
$12.8B
Credit line
$3.0B
undrawn, to June 2031

Cash against debt

Cash$558M
Debt$13.4B

debt covered by cashnet debt $12.8B

When the debt is due

12 months$1.5B
Later$11.8B

The last debt is due in 2064.

Diamondback funds itself mainly with senior notes, and its consolidated figures include Viper Energy. At September 30, 2026, consolidated total debt was $13.38 billion and net debt was $12.82 billion, up from $12.77 billion and $12.30 billion at June 30, 2026.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
2.6% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
2.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $180.98)
Paid per share
$4.43 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$4.72 ($1.18 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
70% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
November 12, 2026, $1.18 per share

Dividends per share by year

Diamondback Energy dividends per share by year
2016
$0.00
2017
$0.00
2018
$0.375
2019
$0.689
2020
$1.50
2021
$1.75
2022
$8.96
2023
$7.99
2024
$8.29
2025
$4.00

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 21.7% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Diamondback Energy

What does Diamondback Energy do?

Diamondback Energy produces oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids in the Permian Basin of West Texas, mainly in the Midland Basin. In Q3 2026, it produced 1,034 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 525 thousand barrels per day were oil. Its market cap is $51B at the current price of $180.98.

When does Diamondback Energy report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Diamondback Energy may report on February 2, 2027. It last reported results on November 2, 2026.

Is Diamondback Energy stock below its intrinsic value?

Diamondback Energy stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Diamondback Energy?

The latest update is from November 2, 2026. Diamondback reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Diamondback Energy?

Results depend on the price of oil. Local natural gas prices in the Permian Basin, such as at the Waha Hub, are often far below national prices. The Stephens holders still own a large stake from the Endeavor purchase.

How much debt and cash does Diamondback Energy have?

At September 30, 2026, Diamondback Energy had $13.4B of debt and $558M of cash.

Does Diamondback Energy pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Diamondback Energy is $4.72 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.6% at the current price of $180.98. In the last 12 months, it paid $4.43 per share (2.4%). The latest ex-dividend date was November 12, 2026.

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