NGGElectric & gas networks (UK and US)
National Grid
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $83.26
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Far below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings May 13 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $87B
- Shares of Mar 31, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 3.9%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.9%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- $73.37 – $94.64
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.65
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 936K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market prices National Grid for the cost of its large investment plan and the risk of lower allowed returns, and EPS growth on guidance with stable ratings over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The full-year results in May 2027 and the next half-year results show whether EPS grows as guided while debt rises.
Company guidance: Underlying EPS growth of 15-16% and about £13.5 billion of capital investment for FY27 (, Half-year 2026/27 results (6-K))
Price history
About
National Grid owns and runs regulated electricity and gas networks in the United Kingdom and the northeastern United States. In the UK, it owns the high voltage electricity transmission network in England and Wales and the electricity distribution networks of the Midlands, the South West and South Wales. In the US, it delivers electricity and gas in New York and Massachusetts. Regulators set the revenue it can earn on its regulated assets: Ofgem in the UK and state commissions and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the US.
National Grid Ventures owns interconnectors to other countries and other non-regulated businesses. In 2025/26, it sold National Grid Renewables and Grain LNG. Its financial year ends on March 31, and its American Depositary Shares trade in New York.
Thesis
The market prices National Grid for the cost of its very large investment plan and for the risk of regulation. The company plans to invest at least £70 billion in the five years to March 2031, and net debt rose to £48.6 billion at September 30, 2026, from £44.2 billion at March 31, 2026. It funds part of the plan with new shares, through a scrip dividend and a larger share count, which reduces EPS growth per share. In the US, a FERC order in March 2026 lowered the allowed returns on New England transmission.
Investors also see UK and US regulators as under pressure to keep customer bills low. For the gap to close, three things must be true. National Grid must deliver underlying EPS growth of 15% to 16% in 2026/27, as now guided, and then 8% to 10% a year to 2030/31. Its regulators must keep allowing returns near the levels of the RIIO-T3 price control and the recent New York and Massachusetts decisions.
It must keep its credit ratings while gearing rises toward the high 60% range by 2030/31. At the half-year results on November 5, 2026, underlying EPS rose 22%, and the company raised its 2026/27 guidance. The full-year results, planned for May 13, 2027, show the first year of the new plan. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters.
The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise the cost of the debt that funds the plan.
Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026PassedHalf-year 2026/27 results: EPS growth and net debtResults that support underlying EPS growth at or above 13% to 15% for 2026/27 and net debt in line with guidance pass; lower guidance or higher net debt fails.Outcome: Underlying EPS rose 22% in the half year, the company raised its 2026/27 guidance to growth of 15% to 16%, and net debt of £48.6 billion was in line with its plan for about £4 billion more growth by March 2027.
- May 13, 2027 · est.PendingFull-year 2026/27 results: first year of the new planUnderlying EPS growth of 15% or more and capital investment of about £13.5 billion, on track for at least £70 billion over five years, pass; lower EPS growth or a cut to the plan fails.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026National Grid reported half-year 2026/27 results. Capital investment rose 33% to a record £6.7 billion. Underlying operating profit rose to about £2.6 billion, and underlying EPS rose 22% to 36.5p, helped by the first year of RIIO-T3, US rate base growth and one-off fair value gains in NG Partners. Statutory EPS was 26.9p. Net debt rose £4.4 billion to £48.6 billion. The interim dividend is 16.97p, up 4%. National Grid raised its 2026/27 guidance to underlying EPS growth of 15% to 16%, with about £13.5 billion of capital investment, and kept its five-year plan.
- October 5, 2026National Grid said in a pre-close update that it now expects 2026/27 underlying EPS growth slightly above its guidance of 13% to 15%. National Grid Ventures & Other expects about £130 million of extra first-half profit from fair value gains in its NG Partners portfolio and stronger interconnector results. Half-year results are due on November 5, 2026.
- August 3, 2026National Grid announced a simpler operating model. From September 1, 2026, the Group Executive Committee falls from 13 to 8 members, with single Presidents for the UK and the US, a global capital delivery team and a global technology team.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- July 1, 2026National Grid Ventures agreed to invest $1.75 billion for a 35% interest in Joulent, a platform that develops contracted power generation and high voltage infrastructure for large US power users.
- May 14, 2026National Grid reported 2025/26 results. Underlying EPS rose 8% at constant currency to 78.0p, and statutory EPS rose 9% to 65.5p. Capital investment was a record £11.6 billion. The total dividend rose 3.8% to 48.49p. It extended its five-year plan to 2030/31, with at least £70 billion of investment, asset growth of about 10% a year and underlying EPS growth of 8% to 10% a year.
- March 2, 2026National Grid accepted Ofgem's RIIO-T3 price control for UK Electricity Transmission, which runs to March 2031, and upgraded its five-year financial framework.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026
- Next earnings
- Expected about May 13, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · nggtf-20260331
- 6-KInterim report for the period ended Sep 30, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025Filed · nggtf-20250331
Risks
- Regulators set the returns on most of National Grid's assets. A FERC order in March 2026 lowered returns in New England. Lower allowed returns or disallowed costs in future rate cases reduce earnings growth.
- The plan needs at least £70 billion of investment to March 2031, funded with new debt, hybrid debt and new shares. Higher interest rates increase funding costs, and more shares reduce growth in EPS per share.
- Large projects can cost more or take longer than planned because of supply chains, permits and workforce limits. National Grid says that it has secured supply chains for about three-quarters of the plan.
- A large part of profit comes from the US and is reported in pounds, so a weaker dollar reduces reported results. Storms in the US also add costs.
Balance sheet
National Grid funds its networks with bonds, hybrid debt and bank loans at the holding company and at its regulated companies. Net debt was £48.6 billion at September 30, 2026, up £4.4 billion from £44.2 billion at March 31, 2026, because capital investment and the Joulent investment were higher than the £4.1 billion of operating cash inflows. Borrowings were £51.2 billion, of which £5.5 billion was due within one year, and cash, current financial investments and financing derivatives offset £2.6 billion. From April 1 to September 30, 2026, the company raised about £5.6 billion of new long-term senior debt and about £3.2 billion of new committed loan facilities. It had £10.9 billion of undrawn committed facilities at September 30, 2026. Underlying net finance costs were £722 million in the half year, up 6%. The company expects net debt to rise by about £4 billion more by March 31, 2027, with regulatory gearing of about 65%, and it expects gearing in the high 60% range by 2030/31. It aims to keep credit metrics above the thresholds for its current group ratings, and Fitch raised its ratings by one notch in June 2026.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.9% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $83.26)
- Paid per share
- $3.24 in the last 12 months (2 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $3.24 (the last two payments)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- May 29, 2026, $2.174 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $3.262 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.909 | |
| 2018 | $3.123 | |
| 2019 | $3.093 | |
| 2020 | $3.142 | |
| 2021 | $3.438 | |
| 2022 | $3.124 | |
| 2023 | $3.536 | |
| 2024 | $7.02 | |
| 2025 | $3.121 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 0.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend fell by about 1.5% a year.
One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about National Grid
What does National Grid do?
National Grid owns and runs regulated electricity and gas networks in the United Kingdom and the northeastern United States. Its market cap is $87B at the current price of $83.26.
When does National Grid report earnings next?
This is an estimate: National Grid may report on May 13, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.
Is National Grid stock below its intrinsic value?
National Grid stock is far below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at National Grid?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. National Grid reported half-year 2026/27 results.
What are the main risks for National Grid?
Regulators set the returns on most of National Grid's assets. The plan needs at least £70 billion of investment to March 2031, funded with new debt, hybrid debt and new shares. Large projects can cost more or take longer than planned because of supply chains, permits and workforce limits.
How much debt and cash does National Grid have?
National Grid funds its networks with bonds, hybrid debt and bank loans at the holding company and at its regulated companies. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does National Grid pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of National Grid is $3.24 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.9% at the current price of $83.26. The latest ex-dividend date was May 29, 2026.
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